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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: ***NFL WEEK 2 REGULAR SEASON PLAYS***
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/12/2012 1:52:36 AM
Was at +$28,890 after pre-season NFL...............


+$28,890-$8,620 I lost in week 1 including the money I won in college (any college loss or win comes or enters the roll)=   (($+20,270)) still in the bankroll, remember I started with $30k............


Not the smartest of plays wagering that heavy in week one. As everyone saw, I did like the Broncos Sunday night but wanted to take a break & get my thoughts in order after losing a 1/3 of the roll in week 1.................I will have my roll up to $50,000 by the end of November & all the cry babies that have nothing but negative comments to add to my thread will be  because I know they will be fading my plays.


I recommend playing small until I state HUGE plays...............plays are coming & they will be toned down. I think I will stick to playing small parlays &/or teasers until week 3 or 4...............lets get some winners.............



3 team 10 point teaser:


Giants +2.5, Colts +11.5, Broncos +13,  $1,200 to win $1,000  (biggest play for week 2)



Parlays are coming....................


Again, would like to apologize to anyone that followed week 1 plays but I should have known better that the first two weeks are a toss up. Be patient & the money will roll in.............patience is a virtue.






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#2
Posted: 9/12/2012 2:16:45 AM
Will you still be posting any trends or recommending plays during the week? Goodluck this week! 
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#3
Posted: 9/12/2012 2:27:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jsmp44:

Will you still be posting any trends or recommending plays during the week? Goodluck this week! 


I wont be posting many trends, takes too much time but will be posting leans & what I like for the coming week.

One game I like that it seems a lot of people on this forum is against is I like the Broncos on Monday night. I said the NFL wont make Manning look bad after a year off & I was right, easy win vs the Steelers & I should have hammered them but wanted to take it easy after all the stupid plays I made during Sunday.

Will Peyton lose on Monday night? No, he wins again & you wont need the points...........but its not a game I will be betting because the biggest play is the teaser ive already made.

I will start my HUGE plays come week 3 or 4..............

Other games I like this week are:


Eagles -2.5

Seattle ML

Packers/Bears Over 50

Raiders -3


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#4
Posted: 9/12/2012 2:27:50 AM
  C'mon now Prime, we have done this for years.  You better post some damn good reasoning for crossing 0 on a teaser with your NYG play!
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#5
Posted: 9/12/2012 3:15:47 AM
  1. 9/13/2012 8:20 PM NFL Football 101 Chicago Bears* pk  vs Green Bay Packers
  2. 9/16/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 213 Houston Texans* -16  vs Jacksonville Jaguars
  3. 9/17/2012 8:25 PM NFL Football 225 Denver Broncos* -4  vs Atlanta Falcons
Risking $5.00 To Win $107.50

What about a reverse prime I think theres a lot of games that have value with the 1st week hype.
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#6
Posted: 9/12/2012 3:49:25 AM
PTBoys....GL this week. 
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#7
Posted: 9/12/2012 5:36:40 AM
BOL On them plays man like them a lot
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#8
Posted: 9/12/2012 5:58:01 AM
Someone is going to have to explain the Eagles line to me.  I get Vegas wants the public to jump on Baltimore after kicking behind on Monday night, but the Eagles looked like absolute garbage.  I guess Eagles at home and the overreaction of the public to jump on Baltimore?

GL Prime 
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#9
Posted: 9/12/2012 6:49:50 AM

to answer that Orange...yeah the Ravens looked good but the Bengals failed to push in several times for the score...the Eagles will be much stingier than the bengals on D and Vick will have a better game and the offense will get untracked....not my favorite game but that line seems fair for both sides... i think the eagles NEED win it and will do so......

yeah primetime  we both had that broncos game from day 1....

of exhibition......that seattle ML pick scares me.......

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#10
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:00:10 AM

Don't mind if I put my personal rules on sports gambling in your thread?

Feel free to agree or disagree with gambling rules I figured out through the years.

1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll. Be discipline.
Kelly Criterion basically says to bet large on -110 and bet small on -500, and bet large on a straight bet, bet small on a parlay bet.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
"Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;
whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted." -Sun Tzu, the Art of War
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.
17. Moneyline favorites are more likely to win than Moneyline underdogs. Favorited lines are juiced because of this reason.
18. Learn from your mistakes. Most gamblers don't learn from their mistakes. That's why I made these gambling rules.

quote
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#11
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:02:00 AM
It's hard to trust the Giants at home. They lost to the Seahawks last season at home.
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#12
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:46:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GunShard:

It's hard to trust the Giants at home. They lost to the Seahawks last season at home.

That was last year & different scenario...........nice rules to live by above & people should abide by them but I do t & won't when it comes to money management. 

With my roll at 20k, I shouldn't be betting more than $400 a game, 2% but I'm a bit unorthodox when it comes to the NFL.

Once week 4 gets here, huge plays will begin.


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#13
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:47:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikesomoney:

  1. 9/13/2012 8:20 PM NFL Football 101 Chicago Bears* pk  vs Green Bay Packers
  2. 9/16/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 213 Houston Texans* -16  vs Jacksonville Jaguars
  3. 9/17/2012 8:25 PM NFL Football 225 Denver Broncos* -4  vs Atlanta Falcons
Risking $5.00 To Win $107.50

What about a reverse prime I think theres a lot of games that have value with the 1st week hype.


Isn't that a pleaser? I don't like playing those, its hard enough beating the regular spread.
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#14
Posted: 9/12/2012 1:19:17 PM
I'd like to see you bet the regular spreads instead of teasers. Some people don't have the luxury of online betting and bet through local bookies. Oh well, GL to you ptb.
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#15
Posted: 9/12/2012 1:28:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by instinctpicks:

I'd like to see you bet the regular spreads instead of teasers. Some people don't have the luxury of online betting and bet through local bookies. Oh well, GL to you ptb.


Oh I will but they heavy straight side wagers wont be coming until week 3 or 4..................by the way, I have 3 locals & 2 of them use an online book service. I bet the teaser hoping to have an advantage...............the teaser & parlays will be cut down as weeks 3 & 4 roll in..............gl to you as well.
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#16
Posted: 9/12/2012 1:34:33 PM
never would have figured you would be on seahawks
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#17
Posted: 9/12/2012 3:42:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cowboys4949:

never would have figured you would be on seahawks


 Touche...........I never though a guy like you would be betting on Dallas. Have you ever once bet against your own team? Just once?
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#18
Posted: 9/12/2012 4:22:38 PM
Lets look at this Dallas/Seattle game:


Seattle was 5-1 ATS last season as a home dog...........Dallas was 1-3 ATS as a road fav last season.

Seattle has back to back games & "are they" looking ahead to next weeks Monday night game vs G Bay? Imo, no because in reality, I think they know they wont be beating the packers so they must get their 1st win this week. 

No way do the Seahawks want to start the season at 0-3 but it could happen, anything is possible in this league. Dallas has Tampa at home in week 3 & then the Bears at home in week 4 on Monday night.

Some trends:

Seattle is 1-6 ATS after playing Arizona

Seattle is 2-8 ATS at home vs the NFC EAST

Seattle is 1-5 ATS week before playing a Monday night game

No trends for Dallas in this game
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#19
Posted: 9/12/2012 4:52:28 PM
Adding as a lean:


Chargers -6 (-110)

Skins -3 (-110)

Cards +13.5 (-110)

Cards ML (+600)


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#20
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:13:48 PM
GL Prime
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#21
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:18:53 PM
whats last year have to do with this year ?? i forgot NOTHING. You take seattle money line with your imaginary bets and see how you do. Everyone one covers knows you make fake wagers
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#22
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:28:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GunShard:

Don't mind if I put my personal rules on sports gambling in your thread?

Feel free to agree or disagree with gambling rules I figured out through the years.

1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll. Be discipline.
Kelly Criterion basically says to bet large on -110 and bet small on -500, and bet large on a straight bet, bet small on a parlay bet.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
"Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;
whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted." -Sun Tzu, the Art of War
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.
17. Moneyline favorites are more likely to win than Moneyline underdogs. Favorited lines are juiced because of this reason.
18. Learn from your mistakes. Most gamblers don't learn from their mistakes. That's why I made these gambling rules.



Finally waking up to rule number 6.   I would always look at the lines and not liking hardly any i would still wager just to have some action it made the games more exciting right.  Well not this year i am going to pick my spots through the entire season.
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#23
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:48:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cowboys4949:

whats last year have to do with this year ?? i forgot NOTHING. You take seattle money line with your imaginary bets and see how you do. Everyone one covers knows you make fake wagers

Did I offend you & your pathetic ways of capping with your homer abilities? Lmao.............

Listen buckwheat, if it makes you sleep better at night thinking I don't wager what I say, good for you, just don't beat you boyfriend up over the fact youre pissed off at the world that you don't have the money to wager on games as others do.......

Now I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.........if we can get a moderator to escrow a wager between both of us, pick 5 games a week starting week 2. 

I'm ready, let's put up $1,000 in real money, ask your boyfriend to lend it to you, I'm sure he will for some loving tonight.

Let's do this but we need a moderator & trusted on at that


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#24
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:50:51 PM
Contest will go weeks 2 thru weeks 17, let's do this coward, I mean cowboy, let's see how well you can cap under pressure............
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#25
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:52:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lookingtowin:



Finally waking up to rule number 6.   I would always look at the lines and not liking hardly any i would still wager just to have some action it made the games more exciting right.  Well not this year i am going to pick my spots through the entire season.

Number 6 is a great rule & i know better than what i did in week 1.
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