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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Week 1 Lets Get It Right Early
runner21 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/27/2012 8:28:43 AM

Carolina Panthers vs Tamp Bucs

Things that stick out:

1. Division Game dog getting points at home. Why? Cam Newton. Thats the first name out of anyones mouth when you mention this game. The Panthers were a covering machine last year.  Books adjust and understand this. If you ask ten friends who will win of course Cam Newton's Panthers. Panthes were terrible on D last year. They drafted 5 of 7 picks on defense and spec teams. Takes longer for D to jell than O. 1 missed coverage on D equal TD. At the end of the year last year Cam threw for 200 5 of the last 6 games. Year full of tape. Yeah might be some regression.Both teams were terrible on defense. Ranking 24 or below in almost all defensive categories.

My brain says shootout with two lack luster defenses trying to figure it out. Over 46.5 is the safe play now.

If I could get Bucs at +3, I would jump on it now. Its juiced at most places I look. ML worth a look as well. Wrong team could be favored. Bucs won 4 games Carolina 6 games. Lot of inflated lines Cam Newton was unknown

Tell me something besides Cam Newton.

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#2
Posted: 6/27/2012 12:40:30 PM
I'd stay away.  Not sure what to expect from Cam Newton.  I don't trust Josh Freeman.

I agree that I'd lean over
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#3
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:14:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by runner21:

Carolina Panthers vs Tamp Bucs

Tell me something besides Cam Newton.

First off, +3 not really considered "getting points"

Second, panthers have a nice O-line...

thridly, 2 nice RB's

Lastly, nice WR's

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#4
Posted: 6/28/2012 2:18:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by QBoption:

First off, +3 not really considered "getting points"

Second, panthers have a nice O-line...

thridly, 2 nice RB's

Lastly, nice WR's

At home in a Division game is considered getting points. Like i said earlier I think the over has bigger upside than +3, however there is more tap on Cam Newton now so there is sure to be some regression. Cam slowed down a little during the end of last season. I dont think these teams are that far apart on Defense. Most of the Panthers offseason draft acquisitions came via the draft.

Gonna take time to gel. Josh Freeman had a rookie season and regressed. I think that Cam will as well..

More TAPE TAPE TAPE

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#5
Posted: 6/28/2012 3:15:17 AM
5dimes has it at 2.5 and im telling you now the offense of cam newton will not slow down. The weapons are insane and the chemistry they developed last year without having a full off season was remarkable. 

Another thing i'd like to point out is that the ILB from Boston College, the best linebacker arguable in the draft is now on that team while getting beason back as well. That defense has a complete edge this game. 

However i know most think well there running d wasn't the only problem and i do agree however like someone posted earlier Josh Freeman is not trust worthy. take the 2.5 now or 3 and you won't be dissapointed.

Another pick as well would be the over all of the previous games have been the same BOL yall
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#6
Posted: 6/28/2012 12:08:53 PM


They haven't even had training camp yet.  You have no idea who is even going to be on the team.  No idea about injuries.  
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#7
Posted: 6/28/2012 12:10:16 PM
Takes longer for D to jell than O

You should probably quit while you are behind.  Everyone knows it takes longer for the offense to come together.  Why do you think pre-season games are generally lower scoring?
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#8
Posted: 6/28/2012 1:09:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

Takes longer for D to jell than O

You should probably quit while you are behind.  Everyone knows it takes longer for the offense to come together.  Why do you think pre-season games are generally lower scoring?

The Defense of the Panthers will take longer to jell because of the college acquisitions. Most of there picks in the draft came on the Defensive side of the ball. Assuming all the picks are great and thats a big assumption fine -3. I dont think that will be the case.

Divison game at home for the Bucs after they got swept last year. They will be hungry. Dont question that. Josh Freeman took a step back. Remember he was pretty good coming into the league.Got his terrible coach a new contract. Took a step back.Cam will do the same. Remember Panthers were ATS monsters last year. Books will adjust. I think it will be game 1.

If i wake up the morning of the game and the spread is still +3 Bucs i know i lost money. Doubt it though.

There are preseason injuries etc. I think we all know that just looking at early angles. Im sure you do the same if you have sense. You gotta any info on early games would be interested to hear them.

To HutchEmAll

 

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#9
Posted: 6/28/2012 2:25:47 PM
over or no bet, I wouldn't touch the spread in this game
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#10
Posted: 6/28/2012 6:33:41 PM
too early
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#11
Posted: 6/29/2012 1:09:47 AM
yeah i agree it's bucs or no play...as i've said often cam newton and the panthers are the most overhyped player coming into the league this year

Granted 9 out of 10 don't belive that but that just goes to prove my point
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#12
Posted: 6/30/2012 5:10:21 PM

Ok barring any changes and there will be a lot of them by the time the season starts. I really like Tampa over the Panthers. At this point.

ML +130 +3 Just gotta see where I am going with this pick. Great Value I think.

Lets get on to another game.

A pick that really sticks out in my mind is NE PATRIOTS vs TN TITANS +6.5

I loveTom Brady and the Patriots and feel they are great team. However I feel they still have question marks at the on Defense. They were not good vs the pass or run last year. I dont think both will improve at the same time in week 1 2012. Chris Johnson is not holding out and will participate in all offseason activities. I think his production will be up based on this fact. You have a good game manager in HBack. He does not make mistakes. Throw it away try again. This concept help teams cover spreads. I think CJ will benefit from having a few more WR on offense (Kendall Wright) The Patriots did upgrade at the Linebacker and Safety position. Hightower should start for the Pats. I just think there are still some wholes that will help the Titans cover.

Add anything you like to conversation. I see a lot of people taking Pats week 1.

 

 

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#13
Posted: 6/30/2012 8:55:43 PM

I think there are a lot of games that have value that people are overlooking. I see a lot of love for high spreads Bears, Detroit, etc. believe me a couple of teams with huge spreads are going to lose outright. If you dont believe that your crazy. So watch those big teasers you are dropping week 1.Another matchup I like is

Seattle Seahawks +2 vs Arizona Cardinals.

I love the Seahawks in this spot.  They have a young defense that can get after it.  Defensively is where Seattle truly has the edge.  They are helped out by the fact Arizona Offensive line has been pretty bad. They drafted a kid out of Ole Miss (Massie) to play RT. but he came out as a junior and they kinda stumbled upon him. The Cards then proceeded to draft late right OL players.  I dont think Massie will solve there issue right now. I will be watching him in preseason. Great WR brought in but who can you throw it to from your back. Nevermind who will be throwing for Arizona. Kevin Kolb or John Skelton. I think at this point the two are equal. I know Matt Flynn will be starting for the Seahawks. Im sorry Mr. Jackson. Flynn has some experience with Green Bay. Played behind Rodgers. Good QB coach in Green Bay. Now barring in any big changes. Its

Seattle Seahawks +2 I think the defense will keep Cardinal QBs off balanceno matter QB. Watch the OL in training camp and preseason

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#14
Posted: 6/30/2012 11:01:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by runner21:

I think there are a lot of games that have value that people are overlooking. I see a lot of love for high spreads Bears, Detroit, etc. believe me a couple of teams with huge spreads are going to lose outright. If you dont believe that your crazy. So watch those big teasers you are dropping week 1.Another matchup I like is

Seattle Seahawks +2 vs Arizona Cardinals.

I love the Seahawks in this spot.  They have a young defense that can get after it.  Defensively is where Seattle truly has the edge.  They are helped out by the fact Arizona Offensive line has been pretty bad. They drafted a kid out of Ole Miss (Massie) to play RT. but he came out as a junior and they kinda stumbled upon him. The Cards then proceeded to draft late right OL players.  I dont think Massie will solve there issue right now. I will be watching him in preseason. Great WR brought in but who can you throw it to from your back. Nevermind who will be throwing for Arizona. Kevin Kolb or John Skelton. I think at this point the two are equal. I know Matt Flynn will be starting for the Seahawks. Im sorry Mr. Jackson. Flynn has some experience with Green Bay. Played behind Rodgers. Good QB coach in Green Bay. Now barring in any big changes. Its

Seattle Seahawks +2 I think the defense will keep Cardinal QBs off balanceno matter QB. Watch the OL in training camp and preseason

seahawks

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#15
Posted: 7/1/2012 1:46:31 AM
sweathawks
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#16
Posted: 7/1/2012 6:47:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by runner21:

Ok barring any changes and there will be a lot of them by the time the season starts. I really like Tampa over the Panthers. At this point.

ML +130 +3 Just gotta see where I am going with this pick. Great Value I think.

Lets get on to another game.

A pick that really sticks out in my mind is NE PATRIOTS vs TN TITANS +6.5

I loveTom Brady and the Patriots and feel they are great team. However I feel they still have question marks at the on Defense. They were not good vs the pass or run last year. I dont think both will improve at the same time in week 1 2012. Chris Johnson is not holding out and will participate in all offseason activities. I think his production will be up based on this fact. You have a good game manager in HBack. He does not make mistakes. Throw it away try again. This concept help teams cover spreads. I think CJ will benefit from having a few more WR on offense (Kendall Wright) The Patriots did upgrade at the Linebacker and Safety position. Hightower should start for the Pats. I just think there are still some wholes that will help the Titans cover.

Add anything you like to conversation. I see a lot of people taking Pats week 1.

 

 

  The Bucs run D was piss poor last year and they open against maybe the best ground attack in the NFL. I don't see any value at those odds before proof that off season remedies have changed that.

  I love my Pats but have to lean your way on this one. Titans have improved their O line so as of now I see no reason CJ can't be effective once again providing he wants to be. A returning Britt, along with Wright, Washington and Cook, would give Pats a full plate. Hasselbeck at QB for another plus.

      gl

   

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#17
Posted: 7/1/2012 11:02:02 PM

Ok on to the next game.

Cincy Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens.

There are two issues I have with Baltimore and even more with Cincy. Lets see how they way out. I am a little disturbed with he Ray Rice holdout. The guy is pretty much their offense. Rice is a back slash WR slash everything. I know he understands he offense but will he be ready for the season missing OTA and some training camp. Suggs is another key on the other side of the ball. Suggs creates pressure. He can read the run and pass. He will be missed week 1. I will be watching his backup during preseason.

There is no doubt Cincy can stop the run but there pass coverage is terrible. They picked up Dre Kilpatrack from BAMA but the word is he cant back pedal.The thing that concerns  me with Kirkpatrick is that he is a jamming CB. Would have like to see Bengals pick up someone with true CB skills. They have added T Newman from the Cowboys. He is solid at CB. If the Bengals CBs can keep their eyes out the backfield the may have a shot.

I give Ravens a sligh edge on offense.They have not been as productive as I thought they woud be under Flacco. This is evident by Ray Rice's production. He cant read coverage that well so he dumps it to Rice a lot.

If the Bengals can stop the big play on play action they should cover the +6.5. Right now I like the Bengals +6.5 

PS keep an eye on Bengals secondary in the preseason vs playaction

 

 

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#18
Posted: 7/1/2012 11:25:34 PM
My two early leans are over in the Saints/'Skins game and under in Houston/Miami.
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#19
Posted: 7/3/2012 1:03:22 PM
You bring up some great points. I fully agree with you on the fact that Cam Newton will regress this season. What can we look at to make this guess? The Pro Bowl. Defenses couldn't blitz, had to run a 4-3 at all times, couldn't press coverage, and had to sit in a base Cover 2 or Cover 3 zone defense. The werent rushing Newton, but were playing contain and forcing him to make the throws. He failed miserably, usually QB's pick apart this lame duck defenses for massive numbers - when Newton entered the game it was downhill/over fast for the NFC - absolutely pathetic performance and based on this it is apparent that his football IQ is very low for someone in the NFL - he has survived to this point on his elite athletic ability alone, something that doesn't last as long as decision making ability and being able to read a defense in the NFL. Good luck to him, but I think he's on the clock.
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#20
Posted: 7/3/2012 3:09:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:



They haven't even had training camp yet.  You have no idea who is even going to be on the team.  No idea about injuries.  


None of that stuff really matters as long as the line holds.


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#21
Posted: 7/3/2012 7:39:37 PM

Eric Wright for real you trying to burn my money.

Ok before against started turning into the moral police. Most have driven under the influence. They just didnt get caught. My mom said that. She has done it before but now she is the most conservative person in the world.

Now to football. This most likely going to cost Wright some coin. Unspecified injuries means. I am not really hurt lets wait and see. Felony DUI will be pleaded down. Long as there not any bad injuries. If there were it would be all over the news.

I hate to see new money corrupt. Keeping an I on this situation just the same. Hope Wright understands what he did wrong.

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#22
Posted: 7/4/2012 7:20:00 AM

I like the Giants to defeat the Cowboys by covering spread and Ravens to defeat the Bengals straight up.

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#23
Posted: 7/4/2012 11:00:10 AM

               

      Have a great 4th everyone                                                                     

    Don't  and drive.  

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#24
Posted: 7/4/2012 5:58:08 PM

My thoughts on that game.. The Buc's have started fast with Freeman at the helm over the last two years. Each year over their first 6 games, they are...  

2011.. 4 wins and lost 2. and 2 wins were divison games.

2010 ..4 wins and lost 2.

Furthermore, last year when Tampa played Carolina in the first game it was without the # 1 player on offense and #1 player on defense. Josh Johnson was the QB, not Freeman. and G. McCoy didn't play on defense.

The second Carolina games was on Christmas eve after the Buc's were toast and just playing out the season partying with Morris, the old coach.

 

I'm not making excuses for my favorite team, I'm just telling you that betting against the Buc's and giving up -2.5 points on the road in week one is risky, especially early in the season.

 

 

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#25
Posted: 7/4/2012 6:34:42 PM
First off, +3 not really considered "getting points"



can someone help me out with this statement? 
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