There are so many intangible angles that favor the Patriots in this game that I don't know where to begin. They have double revenge against the Giants - first revenging the loss at home earlier this season (their last loss since rattling off 10 straight victories) - second revenging the Superbowl loss in their (almost) perfect season. They also have MHK stitched onto their jerseys and don't underestimate the importance of Myra Kraft to these Patriots. Robert Kraft was an integral part of solving the lock out all the while his late wife was ailing in the hospital. Not only do these Patriots owe their season to Robert and Myra, but every NFL player that received a paycheck this year is in debt to the Kraft family. They've been playing for her, and I would argue that it means more to the Patriots to win in her name than it does to get revenge on the Giants.
There's been a lot of talk about how well the Giants have been playing in the last two months. Of course, this talk is justified. They've basically won 5 playoff games in a row and their defense has been almost unstoppable holding teams to an average of 13.4 points per game. But let's not forget, that during the regular season they were not playing on this level. I know many of you will argue this was due to injuries - and you're right in part - but it's quite clear that the Patriots are the better overall team. Many of you are jumping out of your chairs yelling at this thread, "the Patriots defense sucks!". Well no, they don't. The Patriots may give up a lot of yards, but their red zone defense was stellar this season. This bend but not break defensive mentality has led to a Defensive-Yards-Per-Point stat that approaches 20 YPPT which was the best in the league this season. Using 'surface stats' the Patriots defense is far from impressive, but looking deeper at 'advanced stats' you'll realize that they're much better than you thought. Also, it goes without saying that Belichick is a master at designing defensive schemes. He's had two weeks to prepare and he's already seen the Giants once this season in person - he will have a game plan to neutralize the Giants air attack (especially Victor Cruz). Also, Josh McDaniels has had a month now to fully integrate his playbook into the offense. Tom Brady loves working with him and his presence only makes the Patriots offense more of a threat. The only real advantage the Giants have is in their running game and their front four on defense. Almost every other match-up is a wash or an advantage for the Patriots. The Giants have a +5 turnover differential in the playoffs and that's contributed a lot to their success. Amazingly the Patriots have a -3 turnover differential yet they've won both games! To overcome a turnover differential like this and still win in the playoffs is a testament to how elite their offense is playing. Playing this game in a dome should limit the turnovers for both teams and to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots don't turn the ball over at all.
According to my point spread rankings the Patriots have a relative spread of +9.3 and the Giants have improved on their number during the playoffs to +2.7 (after week 15 the Giants had a relative spread of -1.4). Still, using these numbers the Patriots are 6.6 points better than the Giants and that's before you start adjusting for the intangibles. I believe the Patriots should actually be -8 against the Giants (of course Vegas doesn't set lines like this - but I trust that my model spits out the true statistical difference between teams). Now many of you will have a laugh looking at this "true line" but I'll let the game silence your chuckles. The Patriots will win this game 30-20.
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6:35 EST - New England Patriots -3 (-105)
There are so many intangible angles that favor the Patriots in this game that I don't know where to begin. They have double revenge against the Giants - first revenging the loss at home earlier this season (their last loss since rattling off 10 straight victories) - second revenging the Superbowl loss in their (almost) perfect season. They also have MHK stitched onto their jerseys and don't underestimate the importance of Myra Kraft to these Patriots. Robert Kraft was an integral part of solving the lock out all the while his late wife was ailing in the hospital. Not only do these Patriots owe their season to Robert and Myra, but every NFL player that received a paycheck this year is in debt to the Kraft family. They've been playing for her, and I would argue that it means more to the Patriots to win in her name than it does to get revenge on the Giants.
There's been a lot of talk about how well the Giants have been playing in the last two months. Of course, this talk is justified. They've basically won 5 playoff games in a row and their defense has been almost unstoppable holding teams to an average of 13.4 points per game. But let's not forget, that during the regular season they were not playing on this level. I know many of you will argue this was due to injuries - and you're right in part - but it's quite clear that the Patriots are the better overall team. Many of you are jumping out of your chairs yelling at this thread, "the Patriots defense sucks!". Well no, they don't. The Patriots may give up a lot of yards, but their red zone defense was stellar this season. This bend but not break defensive mentality has led to a Defensive-Yards-Per-Point stat that approaches 20 YPPT which was the best in the league this season. Using 'surface stats' the Patriots defense is far from impressive, but looking deeper at 'advanced stats' you'll realize that they're much better than you thought. Also, it goes without saying that Belichick is a master at designing defensive schemes. He's had two weeks to prepare and he's already seen the Giants once this season in person - he will have a game plan to neutralize the Giants air attack (especially Victor Cruz). Also, Josh McDaniels has had a month now to fully integrate his playbook into the offense. Tom Brady loves working with him and his presence only makes the Patriots offense more of a threat. The only real advantage the Giants have is in their running game and their front four on defense. Almost every other match-up is a wash or an advantage for the Patriots. The Giants have a +5 turnover differential in the playoffs and that's contributed a lot to their success. Amazingly the Patriots have a -3 turnover differential yet they've won both games! To overcome a turnover differential like this and still win in the playoffs is a testament to how elite their offense is playing. Playing this game in a dome should limit the turnovers for both teams and to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots don't turn the ball over at all.
According to my point spread rankings the Patriots have a relative spread of +9.3 and the Giants have improved on their number during the playoffs to +2.7 (after week 15 the Giants had a relative spread of -1.4). Still, using these numbers the Patriots are 6.6 points better than the Giants and that's before you start adjusting for the intangibles. I believe the Patriots should actually be -8 against the Giants (of course Vegas doesn't set lines like this - but I trust that my model spits out the true statistical difference between teams). Now many of you will have a laugh looking at this "true line" but I'll let the game silence your chuckles. The Patriots will win this game 30-20.
Pats win and don't cover. Vegas is not going to let this one get out of hand otherwise the line would be 3.5 and be much more confusing. This game either ends in a push or its a 2-4 point game in which situation Ill take the points and hope that the better team covers.
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Pats win and don't cover. Vegas is not going to let this one get out of hand otherwise the line would be 3.5 and be much more confusing. This game either ends in a push or its a 2-4 point game in which situation Ill take the points and hope that the better team covers.
This one is contributed to the Patriots bend but don't break defense. In a dome, I think Tynes will hit two field goals as the Patriots follow the same trend of giving up yards but tightening up in the red zone.
Ahmad Bradshaw Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Green-Ellis +14.5 Rush Yards vs. Bradshaw(-125)
Bradshaw surpassed 63 yards in all three playoff games but in his 12 regular season appearances he only broke this number twice. I think the Patriots will be ahead for most of this game and the Giants won't be running the ball to get the win. Vegas knew what they were doing setting this line, they know most people will be betting the over. This is a case of reading between the lines and doing the opposite of what Vegas wants you to do. Green-Ellis has run the ball well this post season and he's been particularly good out of the spread. If the Patriots have the lead like I expect, he should get a lot of attempts to hang around with Bradshaw's rushing total.
No Special Teams or Defensive Touchdowns Scored (-180)
This is just a value play. -180 translates to about a 35% chance of there being a defensive/special teams touchdown. The actual number for these two teams is closer to 15%. With kickoffs coming from the 35 yard line, this bet is really reduced to punts and defensive touchdowns. It's definitely worth a shot with all this value.
Superbowl MVP Wes Welker (+1500)
Welker is still Brady's favorite target - especially now that Gronk is injured. High ankle sprains are a very difficult injury to overcome and regardless of what the reports say he won't be near 100% today. Josh McDaniels likes Welker and with him calling the plays I think you'll see a few more passes go his way. He has the highest receptions prop at 6.5 which tells me that the books are expecting him to play a big part in the offense as well. If the Patriots win and he leads the team in receptions and gets a touchdown he'd be a great MVP candidate.
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I have action wagers on these props:
Lawrence Tynes Field Goals Made Over 1.5 (-105)
This one is contributed to the Patriots bend but don't break defense. In a dome, I think Tynes will hit two field goals as the Patriots follow the same trend of giving up yards but tightening up in the red zone.
Ahmad Bradshaw Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Green-Ellis +14.5 Rush Yards vs. Bradshaw(-125)
Bradshaw surpassed 63 yards in all three playoff games but in his 12 regular season appearances he only broke this number twice. I think the Patriots will be ahead for most of this game and the Giants won't be running the ball to get the win. Vegas knew what they were doing setting this line, they know most people will be betting the over. This is a case of reading between the lines and doing the opposite of what Vegas wants you to do. Green-Ellis has run the ball well this post season and he's been particularly good out of the spread. If the Patriots have the lead like I expect, he should get a lot of attempts to hang around with Bradshaw's rushing total.
No Special Teams or Defensive Touchdowns Scored (-180)
This is just a value play. -180 translates to about a 35% chance of there being a defensive/special teams touchdown. The actual number for these two teams is closer to 15%. With kickoffs coming from the 35 yard line, this bet is really reduced to punts and defensive touchdowns. It's definitely worth a shot with all this value.
Superbowl MVP Wes Welker (+1500)
Welker is still Brady's favorite target - especially now that Gronk is injured. High ankle sprains are a very difficult injury to overcome and regardless of what the reports say he won't be near 100% today. Josh McDaniels likes Welker and with him calling the plays I think you'll see a few more passes go his way. He has the highest receptions prop at 6.5 which tells me that the books are expecting him to play a big part in the offense as well. If the Patriots win and he leads the team in receptions and gets a touchdown he'd be a great MVP candidate.
Feel free to search my name in the covers search engine and look at all of my archived threads. You won't find any accounting errors. Anyone that has followed me across all the sports forums will attest to my accuracy as well. I start every thread with the records posted up top.. I have complete transparency on here. My positive record is a testament to the hard work I put in handicapping each play along with strict discipline with money management.
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Feel free to search my name in the covers search engine and look at all of my archived threads. You won't find any accounting errors. Anyone that has followed me across all the sports forums will attest to my accuracy as well. I start every thread with the records posted up top.. I have complete transparency on here. My positive record is a testament to the hard work I put in handicapping each play along with strict discipline with money management.
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