Posted:
#1
Playoffs: 4-2 +4.1U
Baltimore Writeup:
So I feel like I was a bit lucky last week with that Texans game, but I think the second half was actually indicative of how the first half should have played out if you remove the Texans' TOs in their half of the field. I was not impressed by the Ravens defense. Arian Foster is a beast, but I think the Ravens showed their age when a young offense tries to punch them in the mouth. I also feel like the Houston WRs were able to get open but Yates either missed them or made the wrong read.
This team seems to be night and day when it comes to playing away from Baltimore. Their offense averages 8 fewer points on the road and their defense gives up 3 more points on the road. In relative terms their offense goes from outperforming the defense at home by 5 to basically performing on par with the defense they are facing on the road. On defense they outperform the offense they face at home by 4 while only outperforming by 1 on the road. I think this can be attributed to Joe Flacco getting rattled in opposing stadiums and their defense unable to feed off of their home crowd. The Ravens are 8-0SU at home while 4-4SU on the road.
Looking deeper at Flacco's stats reveals the road woes. On average Flacco has a QBR 4pts below the defense he faces on the road. If you remove his highly efficient performance versus Cincinnati in the final week who were without top safety Leon Hall and the Ravens rushed for 200+ then Flacco averages 8 below his opponent's defense. On the road Flacco's averages .6 yards per pass less than the defense he is facing allows. Also, Flacco tends to underperform when he is forced to throw the ball more than 30 times. Flacco averages a QBR of 96 with fewer than 30 attempts while he has a QBR of 74 with 30+ attempts. In relative terms this discrepancy becomes more clear, with <30 attempts he outperforms the defense's QBR by 18 while with 30+ attempts he underperforms by 8. In 10 games when throwing 30+ passes Flacco's TD-INT ratio is 11-10 while in 7 when throwing <30 passes the ratio is 11-2.
I know these are somewhat exaggerated since they don't split out the situations he was in, but I think this indicates that when Flacco is allowed to play within himself he puts the Ravens in a great position to win, but when he is forced to sling it he tends to struggle. The Ravens are undefeated when Flacco throws it fewer than 30 times.
In the game versus the Patriots I think there are two worries. First is that Flacco will more than likely have to throw more than 30 times for the Ravens to keep up. Of the 6 occasions the Ravens have allowed 20+ points, Flacco has thrown 30+ 5 times, and I think the Patriots will be able to score 20+. The second thing that worries me is the interceptions as he averages 1per game when throwing 30+ and the Patriots are #2 in the league in picks. The Patriots force QBs to throw an average of 39 times a game which probably aides their INT total.
....I will be back with the Patriots write up later today.
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Saints minus points compared to Giants plus points at SF 
I COACHED FOR YEARS AND THAT WAS THE CASE MANY TIMES[BOL TO ALL]
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