2012 NFL playoffs!

Last year went 11-3 with my playoff plays... hoping to duplicate!


Wildcard Round:


Texans (-3)  -105

Falcons ML  +130

Broncos (+8.5)



Futures:  Saints to win the Super Bowl (+500)




the general philosophy for this year... bet against both #1 seeds at every opportunity... Saints or 49ers will make it to the SB in the NFC, Ravens will go in the AFC... Pitt and New England are the most over-rated / over-valued teams in the playoffs... Pitt leads the pack... i hate Denver as a team, but i expect them to beat Pitt, and covering should be no problem...

you don't win in the playoffs with terrible defense and no running game... the Packers gave up more yards on defense than they produced on offense, and that is saying a mouthful... while New England sports THE WORST DEFENSE IN NFL HISTORY!!!!!

you bet on these teams, you deserve to lose your money... the Saints D is nothing special, but they have incredible offensive balance, unlike the two aforementioned teams... 49ers and Ravens both play the style of football needed to win in the playoffs...

Bengals are the worst team in this year's crop, playing on the road, with a rookie QB against a top notch defense... i hate TJ Yates, but the Texans, playing in their first ever playoff game, at home, will win this game in the trenches...

tough to go against the hot Giants team, but Atlanta is better, and shouldn't be given points in this game... tempting to take the 3 points, but wasn't willing to lay juice to do it, so taking the ML at what i believe is it's highest value...

Didn't Patriots' two huge came from behind wins impressed you, down 17-0 to the Dophins in week 16 and 21-0 to the Bills last week?

i like all 3. i may parlay as well

The Steelers are not frauds, they are simply injured. True that their running game leaves a lot to be desired and their offense tends to sputter on the road a bit especially lately.

They were blown out twice. The second time versus SF was with a seriously banged up qb trying to perform when he should have been healing.

Their defense is ranked number one statistically overall and though they tend to play down to the level of their opposition they have a record of 12-4.

All of that being said they are even more banged up now with the loss of a center and a safety. I am liking your Denver plus the points pick. If the Broncos win, it will sure shake things up in the Steel city.

no Europa... in fact, that's pretty much what doesn't impress me about the Pats...

1) why would i be impressed that New England was trailing by large margins, at home, to two lower-tier AFC teams, with homefield advantage at stake?

2) look at their resume of wins... it should not impress you... the teams they used to get that #1 seed are sad, at best...



take a look:

most impressive win... 38-20 @ Philly, at a time when Philly was in a tailspin...

wins vs. playoff teams:  2... 20-16 vs Dallas... 41-23 @ Denver  (neither of these teams are any good, and against Denver, they once again needed to overcome a 2 score deficit...

record vs. playoff teams:  2-2... losses @ Pitt and home vs. Giants



bottom line... Pats played as easy of a schedule as any team in football... and they showed a consistent pattern of trailing to bad football teams...

do you want to have the Pats (-300) ML in a playoff game, against a decent football team, knowing you will most likely need another come from behind effort to cash your ticket?  and forget about covering a 7+ pt spread... that shit ain't happening!

don't be fooled by this team... they are a paper tiger!

On the Falcons and Broncos- Houston scares me!! If I had to pick one favorite that I think could lose it is definitely the Texans. Something not right there. I think Bengals play thier best game and sneak out with a win 24-21.

Like all 3 plays.......................

You got some valid points. But Pats' defense just shut down Bills after trailing 21-0 and only gave up 7 pts in 2nd half to Dolphins after trailing 17 points. This is a resilent team and can make in-game or halftime adjustment. i have been fading New England in their last few playoff games but may be not on this Divisional Playoff. Thanks for your reply.    

no sweat Europa... it is still up in the air who they will be playing in the Divisional round... i wouldn't feel good about Denver's chances of beating them, but if they are getting more than 2 TDs, i will most likely be on them...

the trouble with the AFC and fading New England is that there are so many weak teams... probably the best option is to just wait for the Balt - New England matchup... that's a ML play for sure, for me...


CastorTroy... two weeks ago i told my buddy that the Texans are an awful team, and would lose straight up to the Colts on Thursday night... i am not excited to be betting on them, but in this particular spot, in their first ever playoff game, against what i measure as the worst team in the entire playoffs, laying a FG was something i had to do...

how are the falcons better than the giants?

Ice...we're on the same sides.  Not sure that's a good thing for you.  Good luck.

I don't see Houston beating cinc by more than a field goal. 

don't know... by being better, i guess... beating them in New York should do the trick...


Skipster... not necessarily a good thing for you, either... but i feel pretty strongly about all of these plays... kind of wish i had jumped on Atl (+3) before the juice started coming in, or had waited until now... but i feel pretty sure that Atl wins this game, just based on what both teams have done this year... so ML seems like the right play...

Divisional Round:


Broncos ML (+600)  .2U

Giants (+8.5)

Giants ML (+315)  .4U



let the fading of the two #1 seeds begin... will probably take the Broncos ATS if the line gets to 14... i am by no means in love with the Broncos, but i think any team left in the AFC can beat the Pats in New England... i'm probably content to just take a shot at 6:1 odds, and then make a bigger bet on the Ravens (or Texans) next week...

still thinking the best bet you can make right now is to find a line on the NFC vs. AFC in the Super Bowl... Bookmaker doesn't have it, and that's the only book i'm using right now... hoping they post it later in the week...

Sportsinteraction has a bet on the superbowl, but just on the winning conference. Not sure if you were interested in that

SCSiegel... yes, that is exactly the bet i am talking about... can you tell me what their line is for that bet?

i am looking to lay the points with the NFC to win the Super Bowl... i imagine the line right now is between 3 and 4... but the actual line for that game will be 7 or more, depending on who makes it...

if it is Saints vs. Ravens, which i believe it will be, i would think the line will be in the 7.5 range, so would like to get it now at the discounted price...

the reason the line is a bargain right now is because people think the Patriots are a good team, and are likely to make it to the Super Bowl...

so i would be interested in some discussion on this week's games... i feel like there is one more good bet out there somewhere...

seems like there is value with Houston (+7.5), but i don't always operate on value, and i feel fairly certain that Baltimore will win, so taking a team to cover 1 TD but lose is hard to sell...

Denver getting 2 TDs might be the way to go... Broncos will score points in that game...

kind of trying to stay away from the SF - NO game... i have the Saints to win the SB, and i think this will be the toughest game for them to pull it off... don't want to hedge by betting SF, but don't need to put any more on NO than i already have on their futures bet...

might be a good totals bet, but it's not really my area of expertise... willing to hear any arguments, though...

 

incidentally, i had small plays on Den ML, NO (-10) and NO over last week, but didn't get to post any of them, since i put them in just before the games... they were all gut plays...

right now, gut is saying Baltimore... wondering if that line could drop to 7... still gotta think about this one...

I think you are dead on about the Saints. This is a very bad spot for them.
If they get by this they go, I am very concerned this week though.....
Very concerned

not much on totals myself.  but i'm looking at the over in the patriots game.  worried about the situation playing denver as they are traveling and playing on saturday after a sunday OT win.  both teams will likely score some points.

Crash... i agree!  this is the game they could lose... if they get past this, i feel very good about my futures bet... SF is a team built for the playoffs... this is arguably the Super Bowl matchup, even though it's early in the playoffs... i would bet whichever teams wins this game wins the SB...

Skip... i like that over... was the one total i thought about playing...

still thinking Baltimore, but doesn't look like i am going to get a shot at seeing a 7 out there... really don't like the board this week... feel like next week's games are where the money can be made...

Denver +14      Made money all year fading The Patriots, why stop in       the playoffs...Tebow's mechanics suck? who the fuck                         cares as long as the ball gets to where it needs to be going...

sportsinteraction has the NFC -165

 

sounds like it would be equivalent to a spread of about (-4)... Bookmaker still not offering it heading into this week's games, so will have to jump on it next week... if the Pats beat the Broncos, it shouldn't move too much... if they lose, i'll win a nice ML bet... if the Packers lose, i win a couple bets, and the line might even drop...

i put in a small play on the Ravens, buying half a point down to (-7)... bit of an action play...

 

 

Trav... don't agree that the GB - NYG line is a trap... they put the line exactly where it should be based on their season's performance... but GB has O-line issues right now, and that spells trouble against the Giants, who are built for playoff football...

have made a living betting against teams that can't run and can't play defense in the playoffs, when they are laying heavy points to a team that does both very well... no reason to stop now!