mTbaKer's NFL Picks- Week 16

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: mTbaKer's NFL Picks- Week 16
mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/22/2011 4:28:29 AM

I have littered the NFL Forum with info on this game in the past hour.  So here's my first play of the week and I highly doubt I'm gonna change my mind on this one.

Chiefs -2.5 (-111) to win 40 units

Will post remaining picks in here as usual.

wonwiththehook PM wonwiththehook
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Posted: 12/22/2011 6:08:37 AM
No_Contest PM No_Contest
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Posted: 12/22/2011 11:28:38 AM
i'm on KC too MT! if KC wins vs Oakland and if Buffalo upsets Denver,thats sets up the perfect script of Orton going back to Denver vs Tebow; winner makes the playoffs!
metalbill PM metalbill
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Posted: 12/22/2011 12:01:50 PM
chiefs 
Europa PM Europa
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Posted: 12/22/2011 12:03:19 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by No_Contest:

i'm on KC too MT! if KC wins vs Oakland and if Buffalo upsets Denver,thats sets up the perfect script of Orton going back to Denver vs Tebow; winner makes the playoffs!

Can't believe that Chiefs sitting at 6-8 are still alive in AFC playoff race, can we? i guess Raiders might be still nursing that late game collapse last Sunday.   

nhoveem PM nhoveem
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Posted: 12/22/2011 12:45:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by No_Contest:

i'm on KC too MT! if KC wins vs Oakland and if Buffalo upsets Denver,thats sets up the perfect script of Orton going back to Denver vs Tebow; winner makes the playoffs!

That not right, as kc would need to win and hope SD loses to make the playoffs if this was the case for next weeks game.
D-Town PM D-Town
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Posted: 12/22/2011 3:08:07 PM
No_Contest PM No_Contest
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Posted: 12/22/2011 4:03:36 PM
thanks nhoveem i stand corrected 
phat03 PM phat03
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Posted: 12/22/2011 4:36:34 PM
mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/24/2011 6:25:49 AM

Official Plays:

49ers -1 (-108) to win 50 units

I headed down South from Vancouver to Seattle to watch my beloved Niners play the Seahawks.  Ya SF is getting a lot of public action but a ton of people are talking about how to Seahawks are gonna beat the Niners.  I’ve been hearing on the radio stations that the Seahawks are on fire and the Niners are on short rest here and might be complacent after beating Pitt.  Even a cashier at Macy’s told me that the Seahawks were gonna win cause of these reasons when I asked him about the game.  The Niners know this is a tough game and they are focused to get 2nd place in the NFC with a win knowing that their season is almost dependent on that game.

“Marshawn is running that ball - like I told guys, he’s running like he just got out of jail or something,” 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers said. “He’s running that ball hard. It’s going to be a challenge, and just going into their place is a challenge with the way they’re playing.”

The quote above doesn’t sound like a team that’s gonna be taking it easy.  On top of the Niners being focused, they are the better team that’s still being disrespected and they match up great with the Seahawks.

The Seahawks win streak has been predicated upon running the ball with the resurgent Marshawn “Skittles/Beast Mode” Lynch.  Unfortunately for Lynch, he goes up against the best run defense in the game in the Niners that haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season.  Lynch got shut down by the Bears only getting 42 yards on the ground on 20 carries.  The Niners run D is probably sick of hearing about Lynch and will really want to take this as a challenge this week.  Stud linebacker Patrick Willis is a game-time decision after practicing this week and would add a huge boost.  Even without him the Niners will be fine with Bowman, Harrelson, and Co.  This will lead to Tavaris “Turnover” Jackson in a lot of 3rd and longs.  The Seahawks give up the 5th most sacks in the league, which will be a big problem against a good Niners pass rush led by Aldon Smith and Justin Smith.  The Niners as everyone saw last week versus Pitt create a ton of turnovers.  Their ball-hawking defenders are going to be opportunistic and jump on any mistakes by T-Jax.

On the other side of the ball the Seahawks have an elite run D.  However, Alex Smith has improved immensely over the year and can make the necessary throws to win a game.  After doing well against a Pitt defense, Smith will have confidence to make plays against Seattle.  Like I wrote on Monday, Smith almost never turns the ball over unlike in previous years and is patient with the gameplan.  Gimme the Niners here after their slip-up against the Cards ready to beat another division opponent.

mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/24/2011 6:26:57 AM

Chiefs -2.5 (-111) to win 45 units

The Chiefs are fresh off of a huge win over the Packers.  While many people expect them to let down I expect the complete opposite.  The Chiefs love head coach Romeo Crennel and know that their performance in their last 2 games of the season will determine whether he is brought back for the head coaching position next season.  They are playing good football of late, while the Raiders’ season is in a tailspin losing 3 in a row.  The Raiders threw the kitchen sink at the Lions last week only to blow a 27-14 lead with under 5 minutes to go at home due to some bad plays and horrible decisions by Coach Hue Jackson.  Hue Jackson is a young coach and I think the team might be losing some confidence in him and will be deflated to play KC.

The Chiefs D has been ridiculously good of late.  They shut down a pretty healthy Big Ben and the Steelers to 13 points almost winning that game, they held the Bears to 3 points on the road and won that game, they gave up a lot to the Jets but the Chiefs didn’t give a garbage and were tired cause Palko couldn’t move the ball, and finally the Chiefs gave up only 14 to Aaron Rodgers, which is friggin amazing.  Now they go up against Carson Palmer who once again will be without McFadden and Jacoby Ford.  The Chiefs have a decent run D and should control Michael Bush.  Flowers and Carr are one of the best DB tandems in the game and will dominate wideouts Moore and Schizlens.  Tamba Hali has led a resurgent Chiefs pass rush of late and should pressure Palmer.

On the other side of the ball the Raiders have one of the worst run Ds in the league.  Battle should do a decent job getting yards like he did against Oakland in the Chiefs 28-0 win over the Raiders in Oakland earlier in the year.  This will lead to 3rd and short for a solid short-yardage passer in Kyle Orton.  The Raiders had a good D but they are banged up and their pass D and pass rush have been ineffective of late.

Gimme the Chiefs at home in the tough confines of Arrowhead.

 

Lions -1.5 (-110) to win 40 units

Everyone’s back on the Chargers balls after beating a Ravens team that didn’t show up on Sunday night, beating a pathetic Bills secondary, and beating a brutal Jags team with a depleted secondary.  The Lions have some flaws but by coming back from 13 down to win a game they had no business winning proved to me that they are mentally ready for the playoffs and hungry.  The Chargers are in for a rough game today.

Rivers will be under pressure all game, as their offensive line is still mediocre and will be facing a fierce Lions pass rush led by Suh and van Den Bosch.  The Chargers also are going up against a top 10 pass D, that will have Chris Houston healthy for a second week in a row.  He will limit Vincent Jackson who is banged up.  The Lions are also one of the best teams in the league at shutting down tight ends so Antonio Gates won’t have a field day.  Sure the Chargers could run it on Detroit, but I have a feeling Norv is going to be pass heavy in this one with Rivers recent success and his tendencies to make stupid play calls in big games.

The Chargers D is a porous joke.  They can’t stop the run so a healthy Kevin Smith who thrives in Detroit will do well here.  Stafford has deep threats in Young, Megatron, and Burleson to stretch this puss San Diego secondary.  The Chargers get no pass rush so the Lions will put up points here.

Don’t worry about the Lions choking, worry about the biggest chokers in the league the San Diego Chargers.   Many years of frustration will end in front of the Detroit crowd this Christmas Eve and the players want to give the Michigan faithful an early Christmas present.

Btw raems has a great write-up on this one.

mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/24/2011 6:27:23 AM

Jets -3 (+103) to win 35 units

Lot of love for the Giants, but I think Gang Green back up their coaches’ trash talk once again.  The Jets are a proven winner in underdog situations and this fits the bill.  The Giants are a public dog but their offense is going to struggle against this Jets D.

The Jets have Revis and Cromartie to slow down the great aerial attack of the Giants.  Nicks will get shut down by Revis, and Cromartie has the athleticism to compete with Viktor Cruz.  The Giants won’t be able to run it on a stingy Jets run D that has been very solid of late. 

On the other side of the ball the Jets will be able to pass on a porous Giants secondary and can get yards on the ground against a struggling Giants run D.  The Jets will reduce the Giants pass rush with their decent blocking and short yardage situations.  The Jets always step up in roles like this and I think they get it done here after having a slip-up in Philly before winning 3 in a row prior to that game.

 

Dolphins – Patriots Under 50 (-102) to win 30 units

When you think of Brady versus the Dolphins you think of him shitting on that secondary in Week 1 of this season with a 99-yard TD pass to Welker and in the past with deep bombs in blowouts to Randy Moss.  Well guess what the Dolphins have improved their defense drastically since losing to Tim Tebow.  They have shut down almost every quarterback since then and are pissed about the way the Pats have blown them out in the past.

“The Patriots limited Bush to 38 yards on 11 carries in the season opener while Brady stole the show, passing for a team-record 517 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-24 victory Sept. 12.

“Embarrassing,” Miami safety Yeremiah Bell said. “That can’t happen.”

I think with Branch questionable and banged up and Ochocinco doing garbage-all all year, Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, Bell and others in this secondary can slow down the Pats O.  The Fish have been great against the run as well and can get pressure on the QB.

The Pats return to their successful 3-4 formation after the injury to Andre Carter.  They are also expected to get Brandon Spikes, LB, back who’s one of their best run stoppers.  The Dolphins can pass it on the Pats but I think they will have long drives and settle for many field goals against the Pats bend-but-don’t-break defense.  The Dolphins will also want to chew up some clock to keep the game close and Brady off the field.  At 50 in Foxboro, I like the Under here.

GL

mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/24/2011 6:28:18 AM

Cash my stinkin Over Bills , and one more loss Shahid Khan one more for my big season under win total.

NFL Preseason-to-date: 7-1-0 (+21.66 units)

NFL Regular Season-to-date: 47-38-1 (+289.11 units)


Futures:

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 6 Wins (+155) to win 50 units

Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units

Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units

49ers to win NFC West Division (+272) to win 30 units

Ravens to win Super Bowl (+1006) to win 65 units

Bears to win NFC Championship (+2700) to win 200 units

mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/24/2011 6:35:05 AM

Cheers guys I'm in Seattle so have to head out now but will get to your posts later after Christmas!

cambyspree99 PM cambyspree99
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Posted: 12/24/2011 8:54:15 AM
you had it with the 1st two picks and then u had to pick the cubs and jokes. Jets are terrible as my giants which makes the + 3 a gift. Chargers not only beat all 3 teams including drubbing one of the best defenses in football but crushed them. Make no mistake chargers lost alot of games cause rivers forced things cause he didnt have floyd and a healthy gates which he does now and u can see the difference.
sc_capper74 PM sc_capper74
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Posted: 12/24/2011 9:18:50 AM
Good luck today mtbaker!!
 Go NINERS!!
peace handshake
BJaRz PM BJaRz
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Posted: 12/24/2011 9:23:27 AM
dcowboys PM dcowboys
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Posted: 12/24/2011 9:24:56 AM
GL
Posted using a mobile device.
No_Contest PM No_Contest
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Posted: 12/24/2011 10:21:42 AM
With you on all except for 49ers -1 at Seattle, I thought this line would be around 49ers -4.5, so i'm not touching this game! That -1 stinks! There is a dead cat hanging on a line somewhere!!!
andreagassi6969 PM andreagassi6969
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Posted: 12/24/2011 10:23:03 AM
ballinonabudget PM ballinonabudget
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Posted: 12/25/2011 5:49:43 PM

Congrats on the Bills my brotha, they made you sweat it out ah and just when they play the hot team with Timmy T they pull out that W haha. Always gotta make it interesting.  Hope you're havin a good season homie. I wish I was decent at posting my plays cuz i've been en fuego lol. Now that your bills covered though how bout 1 last W for the donkeys or a loss by the Raiders so I can cash my Denver to win the AFC west wager. I'll try to post some leans early for next week. Happy Holidays!


Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units  = 

Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units  = 

ballinonabudget PM ballinonabudget
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Posted: 12/25/2011 5:50:47 PM
Oh, shoulda added one more  there haha
mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/25/2011 8:35:30 PM

Mediocre 2-3 on ATS plays as I sufferred some tough losses on KC -2.5 having 2 blocked FGs and 2 red zone picks, and with the Pats-Phins Under 50 losing it by 1 point.  Still went plus for a good amount cause my Jags Under and Bills Over win totals cashed.

49ers -1 (-108) to win 50 units 

Lions -1.5 (-110) to win 40 units 

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 6 Wins (+155) to win 50 units  = 

Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units =

Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units =

Chiefs -2.5 (-111) to win 45 units   

Jets -3 (+103) to win 35 units 

Dolphins – Patriots Under 50 (-102) to win 30 units 

mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/25/2011 8:38:17 PM

NFL Preseason-to-date: 7-1-0 (+21.66 units)

NFL Regular Season-to-date: 51-41-1 (+344.58 units)


Futures:

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 6 Wins (+155) to win 50 units 

Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units 

Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units 

49ers to win NFC West Division (+272) to win 30 units

Ravens to win Super Bowl (+1006) to win 65 units

Bears to win NFC Championship (+2700) to win 200 units

mtbaker PM mtbaker
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Posted: 12/25/2011 8:42:12 PM
D-Town, wonwiththehook, phat03, andreagassi6969, dcowboys, and BJaRz 
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