Will post all my plays in here when they get locked in. Having a busy weekend so I thought I'd spit out my leans as I might not have time to do full write-ups this weekend.
Leans:
Raiders +1
Bears -3.5
Texans -6
49ers ATS (If Big Ben plays)
Bills ATS
Vikings +6.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Will post all my plays in here when they get locked in. Having a busy weekend so I thought I'd spit out my leans as I might not have time to do full write-ups this weekend.
Riding the bears for a second week. I like them all. Don't care if Big Ben plays or not, SF loses two games in a row......
Haha this will actually be my 3rd week in a row riding the Bears.
Niners and Vikings are my softest leans of the week with the Steelers being a very good team and Gore not running at his best and for the Vikings they have a horrific secondary. However, I really like the Bears.
Also I initially felt that Carolina might be in a good spot here, but the Texans know people are thinking they'll lay low here after winning the division even though they still want to win the conference and the Texans crowd will be going insane on Sunday so I think the players are going to feed off of that energy. The Texans will be without Wade Phillips so people are doubting their chances again, but their "next man up" mentality is really going to apply here. I really think the Texans mess up ATS against the Colts next week on the road in a let-down spot, not this week. The Panthers are the ones who are going to be emotionally bruised after last week's disgusting loss to ATL at home, not gonna be fun with their run D going up against Foster and Tate, and Newton will struggle against an elite Houston D.
I have been a complete idiot for fading the Texans many times this year. This in my opinion, might be the last week of the regular season where they have value and I'll almost certainly be on them if the spread drops below 2 field goals.
Thanks for posting your thoughts.
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Quote Originally Posted by xanthax:
Riding the bears for a second week. I like them all. Don't care if Big Ben plays or not, SF loses two games in a row......
Haha this will actually be my 3rd week in a row riding the Bears.
Niners and Vikings are my softest leans of the week with the Steelers being a very good team and Gore not running at his best and for the Vikings they have a horrific secondary. However, I really like the Bears.
Also I initially felt that Carolina might be in a good spot here, but the Texans know people are thinking they'll lay low here after winning the division even though they still want to win the conference and the Texans crowd will be going insane on Sunday so I think the players are going to feed off of that energy. The Texans will be without Wade Phillips so people are doubting their chances again, but their "next man up" mentality is really going to apply here. I really think the Texans mess up ATS against the Colts next week on the road in a let-down spot, not this week. The Panthers are the ones who are going to be emotionally bruised after last week's disgusting loss to ATL at home, not gonna be fun with their run D going up against Foster and Tate, and Newton will struggle against an elite Houston D.
I have been a complete idiot for fading the Texans many times this year. This in my opinion, might be the last week of the regular season where they have value and I'll almost certainly be on them if the spread drops below 2 field goals.
If Hanie didn't turn it over in Mile High and had the Bears almost one-dimensional offense up 10-0 I don't see why he can't beat an overrated Seahawks team that has beaten up on the hopeless Rams twice, the disoriented Eagles on short rest, and lost to Grossman's Skins. They did beat teh Ravens but they were hungover after a tough win over Pitt.
Barber ran it agains a stout Denver run D and I think he'll get enough yards here against a Sehawks squad that wasn't great against the run against STL and got run over by Helu. The Seahawks have a great run D but on short rest I don't like their chances. Plus they get no pressure, so if Hanie could survive a great Denver pass rush he'll be fine against Seattle and a decent secondary at-best.
I'd be more worried about Turnover Tavaris behind a shaky Seattle offensive line in 3rd and longs after the Bears slow down Marshawn Lynch.
All I hear about is how no one can lay more than a FG with Hanie. I have no problem doing with a much better football team in the Bears.
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Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:
mt - why do you like hanie?
If Hanie didn't turn it over in Mile High and had the Bears almost one-dimensional offense up 10-0 I don't see why he can't beat an overrated Seahawks team that has beaten up on the hopeless Rams twice, the disoriented Eagles on short rest, and lost to Grossman's Skins. They did beat teh Ravens but they were hungover after a tough win over Pitt.
Barber ran it agains a stout Denver run D and I think he'll get enough yards here against a Sehawks squad that wasn't great against the run against STL and got run over by Helu. The Seahawks have a great run D but on short rest I don't like their chances. Plus they get no pressure, so if Hanie could survive a great Denver pass rush he'll be fine against Seattle and a decent secondary at-best.
I'd be more worried about Turnover Tavaris behind a shaky Seattle offensive line in 3rd and longs after the Bears slow down Marshawn Lynch.
All I hear about is how no one can lay more than a FG with Hanie. I have no problem doing with a much better football team in the Bears.
If Hanie didn't turn it over in Mile High and had the Bears almost one-dimensional offense up 10-0 I don't see why he can't beat an overrated Seahawks team that has beaten up on the hopeless Rams twice, the disoriented Eagles on short rest, and lost to Grossman's Skins. They did beat teh Ravens but they were hungover after a tough win over Pitt.
Barber ran it agains a stout Denver run D and I think he'll get enough yards here against a Sehawks squad that wasn't great against the run against STL and got run over by Helu. The Seahawks have a great run D but on short rest I don't like their chances. Plus they get no pressure, so if Hanie could survive a great Denver pass rush he'll be fine against Seattle and a decent secondary at-best.
I'd be more worried about Turnover Tavaris behind a shaky Seattle offensive line in 3rd and longs after the Bears slow down Marshawn Lynch.
All I hear about is how no one can lay more than a FG with Hanie. I have no problem doing with a much better football team in the Bears.
i glanced over that game and leaned to chicago, I know Lynch hasn't done well vs good run defenses.
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Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:
If Hanie didn't turn it over in Mile High and had the Bears almost one-dimensional offense up 10-0 I don't see why he can't beat an overrated Seahawks team that has beaten up on the hopeless Rams twice, the disoriented Eagles on short rest, and lost to Grossman's Skins. They did beat teh Ravens but they were hungover after a tough win over Pitt.
Barber ran it agains a stout Denver run D and I think he'll get enough yards here against a Sehawks squad that wasn't great against the run against STL and got run over by Helu. The Seahawks have a great run D but on short rest I don't like their chances. Plus they get no pressure, so if Hanie could survive a great Denver pass rush he'll be fine against Seattle and a decent secondary at-best.
I'd be more worried about Turnover Tavaris behind a shaky Seattle offensive line in 3rd and longs after the Bears slow down Marshawn Lynch.
All I hear about is how no one can lay more than a FG with Hanie. I have no problem doing with a much better football team in the Bears.
i glanced over that game and leaned to chicago, I know Lynch hasn't done well vs good run defenses.
Great write up, as always, and Best of Luck this Sunday!!!
What do you think about the Raiders and Denver? I'm liking both to win straight up this week.
Absolutely love the Raiders. Bush will pound the yards against that pathetic Detroit Run D. Carson in 3rd and short with his favourite target Moore back with Heyward-Bay should lead to plays against a banged-up Detroit secondary with Berry and some other guy whose name I forgot being questionable, also Delmas is likely out, and Houston is back but will be rusty. Detroit gets pressure on QB, too bad the Raiders are 6th in league in the least amount of sacks given up.
On D Kevin Smith is banged up so I don't think he can expose Raiders only defensive weakness on the ground. Raiders have top 6 pass D with Routt who will do fine against CJ. The Raiders also have a good pass rush and Stafford is susceptible to getting hit under pressure.
Lions haven't beaten anyone of late and they don't deserve to be road favs here. They are undisciplined so it'll be tough to stay composed in a place like the Black Hole.
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Quote Originally Posted by Trav2282:
Great write up, as always, and Best of Luck this Sunday!!!
What do you think about the Raiders and Denver? I'm liking both to win straight up this week.
Absolutely love the Raiders. Bush will pound the yards against that pathetic Detroit Run D. Carson in 3rd and short with his favourite target Moore back with Heyward-Bay should lead to plays against a banged-up Detroit secondary with Berry and some other guy whose name I forgot being questionable, also Delmas is likely out, and Houston is back but will be rusty. Detroit gets pressure on QB, too bad the Raiders are 6th in league in the least amount of sacks given up.
On D Kevin Smith is banged up so I don't think he can expose Raiders only defensive weakness on the ground. Raiders have top 6 pass D with Routt who will do fine against CJ. The Raiders also have a good pass rush and Stafford is susceptible to getting hit under pressure.
Lions haven't beaten anyone of late and they don't deserve to be road favs here. They are undisciplined so it'll be tough to stay composed in a place like the Black Hole.
Will be on the niners as well if ben plays. Like your plays. Seattle in a bad spot and Houston defense too good, not sure why that line is going down even w/Johnson being out.
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Will be on the niners as well if ben plays. Like your plays. Seattle in a bad spot and Houston defense too good, not sure why that line is going down even w/Johnson being out.
Will be on the niners as well if ben plays. Like your plays. Seattle in a bad spot and Houston defense too good, not sure why that line is going down even w/Johnson being out.
I think I'm gonna lay off the Niners game with Willis possibly out it's gonna be a good one though. I think Seahawks are overvalued here, and Houston outmatches Carolina and I think they'll be motivated for this one which is all that matters.
BOL with your plays buddy I've been really busy this weekend so haven't had time to drop my many threads.
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Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:
Will be on the niners as well if ben plays. Like your plays. Seattle in a bad spot and Houston defense too good, not sure why that line is going down even w/Johnson being out.
I think I'm gonna lay off the Niners game with Willis possibly out it's gonna be a good one though. I think Seahawks are overvalued here, and Houston outmatches Carolina and I think they'll be motivated for this one which is all that matters.
BOL with your plays buddy I've been really busy this weekend so haven't had time to drop my many threads.
Thanks for the plays mtbaker... appreciate the posts and sharing of knowledge and insights you have... always a good read from you... look for your plays every Sunday to see things I may have missed and have been rewarded...
BOL on your plays ...
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Thanks for the plays mtbaker... appreciate the posts and sharing of knowledge and insights you have... always a good read from you... look for your plays every Sunday to see things I may have missed and have been rewarded...
on Raiders and lean texans, not to sure i can back the bears with that offense right now, but i will be on the under in that game,.... hope for 14-10 bears
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on Raiders and lean texans, not to sure i can back the bears with that offense right now, but i will be on the under in that game,.... hope for 14-10 bears
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