Posted:
#1
YTD: 15-32
I was going to throw in the towel after another total disaster last week but reminded myself that at the start of every season I bring in a predetermined bankroll in every sport for the pre/regular seasons which I am perfectly comfortable with losing. I don't bet over my head or with money I can't afford to lose. I have an aggressive style and if I lose my predetermined bankroll for a particular sport in a season then so be it. I have never gotten near to this point in the NFL and if not for a 10-4 preseason I would already have been done. I have learned a hell of a lot so it hasn't been a near death experience.Have enough left for 3 plays at a bit less than my standard % so hopefully I'll go 0-3 this week to finish the job. I will not be reloading and if I do lose the rest I will only bet the playoffs if I come out ahead on the Win totals I put in before the season.
Hopefully everyone faded last week and went 5-0. I'd encourage the same thing this week and hopefully you'll go 3-0 again.
San Diego +3.5
I think the Chargers finally hit rock bottom last week. They were non-competitive in a game they lost from start to finish taking them under .500 and a game and a half back of the division lead. This team has now lost 4 in a row. I think the buy sign is up however as they still have a solid 2nd half track record and now find themselves in a position where the spotlight is off them and onto the Raiders. The game against Oakland was their 3rd in 11 days and now they have had a nice break to refocus and rest and I think it will be a big boost. Philip Rivers on the much needed break: "Obviously it was three games in 11 days and it’s been a rough four game stretch so I think it was good. Not only just to get some rest but I think just the way that game was and having lost four in a row it was good to kinda let our mind heal a little bit and bodies and come in here with a good approach and get excited about going to Chicago. I think we’ve done that. It was pretty upbeat today and we get a normal week ahead of us.”
I'm still not sold on the Bears. Their offense stinks and their WR are probably one of the 3 worst groups in the league. This team is living off turnovers and special teams play right now. Plus they are coming off two very big games against the Eagles on MNF and a big statement game where they blew out the division rival Lions. I'm not sure they will have enough left in the tank to play well enough to win by margin against a team that I believe will come to play. It's also tough to get up to play a 4-5 injury-riddled mess that has lost 4 games in a row. Jay Cutler has not thrown a pick for two straight games, the previous 4 times in his career that has happened he has put up these numbers in the next game:
17/32 223 yards 1 TD 2 INT 60.3 RAT
12/26 152 yards 0 TD 2 INT 32.9 RAT
17/29 192 yards 1 TD 1 INT 75.6 RAT
14/32 155 yards 0 TD 2 INT 32.7 RAT
The Bears also suck as a real favorite (-3 or more). So far they are 0-1 this season and were outgained by 226 yards and last year they were 1-4-1 ATS in this spot. Despite their loss in this role two weeks ago against Green Bay by 1 point ATS thanks to two pick 6's and some dude named Aaron Rodgers, San Diego is still 15-3 ATS after October as a dog with Rivers at the helm. I don't see Aaron Rodgers in sight. San Diego wins outright.
Minnesota +1
It is pretty rare that you ever seen a team with a rushing defense this bad priced in this range on the road. The Raiders rush defense stinks giving up 5.2 yards per rush and now they face a team that should be heavy on the run this week. If you look back at the 3 games Ponder has started in the first two which they covered they ran the ball and lot, shortened the game, and set up Ponder in favorable 3rd downs which they converted at 9-16 and 7-14. Last time out against Green Bay though they got down early and were forced to abandon the run as Ponder had to chuck it 34 times and we all know how that worked out. I think the Vikings are going to have a lot of success pounding the rock which should also put Ponder in good situations. I like them to control TOP here. So far at home they are 3-1 ATS with the lone loss coming thanks to blowing a 17 point halftime lead.
On the other side this is an interesting spot for Oakland as they find themselves in 1st place for the first time in forever so it will be interesting to see how they handle it. I can't remember the last time they were a road favorite and so far this year they have been favored 3 times, they lost two games SU badly and the other they either pushed or covered by half a point against a Browns team that can't score. Oakland has been good at not giving up sacks but they face a very good Minnesota pass rush here that already has 15 sacks in 4 home games. It will be interesting to see just how much Palmer trusts his new receivers and where he goes with the ball in that split second when the rush comes down on him.
I'm not a believer in Oakland and judging by the fact a 2-7 team on 6 days rest that just lost by 38 points opened as a favorite against a division leader on 10 days rest, neither are the oddsmakers.
I was going to throw in the towel after another total disaster last week but reminded myself that at the start of every season I bring in a predetermined bankroll in every sport for the pre/regular seasons which I am perfectly comfortable with losing. I don't bet over my head or with money I can't afford to lose. I have an aggressive style and if I lose my predetermined bankroll for a particular sport in a season then so be it. I have never gotten near to this point in the NFL and if not for a 10-4 preseason I would already have been done. I have learned a hell of a lot so it hasn't been a near death experience.Have enough left for 3 plays at a bit less than my standard % so hopefully I'll go 0-3 this week to finish the job. I will not be reloading and if I do lose the rest I will only bet the playoffs if I come out ahead on the Win totals I put in before the season.
Hopefully everyone faded last week and went 5-0. I'd encourage the same thing this week and hopefully you'll go 3-0 again.
San Diego +3.5
I think the Chargers finally hit rock bottom last week. They were non-competitive in a game they lost from start to finish taking them under .500 and a game and a half back of the division lead. This team has now lost 4 in a row. I think the buy sign is up however as they still have a solid 2nd half track record and now find themselves in a position where the spotlight is off them and onto the Raiders. The game against Oakland was their 3rd in 11 days and now they have had a nice break to refocus and rest and I think it will be a big boost. Philip Rivers on the much needed break: "Obviously it was three games in 11 days and it’s been a rough four game stretch so I think it was good. Not only just to get some rest but I think just the way that game was and having lost four in a row it was good to kinda let our mind heal a little bit and bodies and come in here with a good approach and get excited about going to Chicago. I think we’ve done that. It was pretty upbeat today and we get a normal week ahead of us.”
I'm still not sold on the Bears. Their offense stinks and their WR are probably one of the 3 worst groups in the league. This team is living off turnovers and special teams play right now. Plus they are coming off two very big games against the Eagles on MNF and a big statement game where they blew out the division rival Lions. I'm not sure they will have enough left in the tank to play well enough to win by margin against a team that I believe will come to play. It's also tough to get up to play a 4-5 injury-riddled mess that has lost 4 games in a row. Jay Cutler has not thrown a pick for two straight games, the previous 4 times in his career that has happened he has put up these numbers in the next game:
17/32 223 yards 1 TD 2 INT 60.3 RAT
12/26 152 yards 0 TD 2 INT 32.9 RAT
17/29 192 yards 1 TD 1 INT 75.6 RAT
14/32 155 yards 0 TD 2 INT 32.7 RAT
The Bears also suck as a real favorite (-3 or more). So far they are 0-1 this season and were outgained by 226 yards and last year they were 1-4-1 ATS in this spot. Despite their loss in this role two weeks ago against Green Bay by 1 point ATS thanks to two pick 6's and some dude named Aaron Rodgers, San Diego is still 15-3 ATS after October as a dog with Rivers at the helm. I don't see Aaron Rodgers in sight. San Diego wins outright.
Minnesota +1
It is pretty rare that you ever seen a team with a rushing defense this bad priced in this range on the road. The Raiders rush defense stinks giving up 5.2 yards per rush and now they face a team that should be heavy on the run this week. If you look back at the 3 games Ponder has started in the first two which they covered they ran the ball and lot, shortened the game, and set up Ponder in favorable 3rd downs which they converted at 9-16 and 7-14. Last time out against Green Bay though they got down early and were forced to abandon the run as Ponder had to chuck it 34 times and we all know how that worked out. I think the Vikings are going to have a lot of success pounding the rock which should also put Ponder in good situations. I like them to control TOP here. So far at home they are 3-1 ATS with the lone loss coming thanks to blowing a 17 point halftime lead.
On the other side this is an interesting spot for Oakland as they find themselves in 1st place for the first time in forever so it will be interesting to see how they handle it. I can't remember the last time they were a road favorite and so far this year they have been favored 3 times, they lost two games SU badly and the other they either pushed or covered by half a point against a Browns team that can't score. Oakland has been good at not giving up sacks but they face a very good Minnesota pass rush here that already has 15 sacks in 4 home games. It will be interesting to see just how much Palmer trusts his new receivers and where he goes with the ball in that split second when the rush comes down on him.
I'm not a believer in Oakland and judging by the fact a 2-7 team on 6 days rest that just lost by 38 points opened as a favorite against a division leader on 10 days rest, neither are the oddsmakers.
0
Tebow time. I have Denver Over 6 wins which I thought was long dead now I've got a good chance to hit this one. Tebow is getting a lot of credit but Denver's defense is leaps and bounds better than last year and they are getting better each week. Dumervil is their 2nd best player and he's really only been healthy for the last 3 weeks. Von Miller is a BEAST!
GB is in revenge mode this week.
Hot Forum Topics
