Took a stand with a piece of shit last week and I'll take another this week...

Had the Rams last week and thought it was a nice spot. Who knows if they would have covered had Bradford been in there but that's for another day.


Indianapolis +9.5

This line looks like the markets are so down on the Colts they have to inflate the other team without actually knowing who they are. The Tennessee Titans laying -9.5, really? The Titans aren't any good. They had a very favorable schedule to open the year and everyone got their hopes up when they started 3-1. Now without Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson doing nothing their offense is struggling big time. They don't have an elite defense so to cover a number this big they will have to put a lot of points on the board and I just don't see it. They haven't scored more than 26 offensive points in a game all season (had a pick 6 in the 31 point game).

We all saw the Colts get pasted last week but everyone knew that Indianapolis was crap and weren't going anywhere, even the players knew that. The Titans on the other hand started 3-1 and had legit playoff hopes but the last two weeks they have played two playoff teams and have gotten absolutely crushed. Their spirits must be at rock bottom right now knowing they just aren't good enough to contend with the big boys. They had a golden oppotunity to do something last week off a bye and a banged up Houston team coming to town but they were absolutely manhandled. It wasn't a loss where turnovers and special teams killed them, they were just straight up dominated in every facet of the game. A loss like that has to be very deflating. Cortland Finnegan said after the game the last two losses have left the team "shellshocked".

Indy can come in here and compete. These are division rivals that know each other inside and out. Last night on MNF Coountdown the Colts were the lead story and the panel of idiots all called them an embarrassment and more importantly questioned their character and said they quit against the Saints. I think they respond with a good effort. That loss was nowhere near as deflating as the one the Titans suffered. Last year a similar scenario occurred where the markets were so down on Carolina they actually made them 9 point dogs to the freakin Browns. Carolina lost 24-23 and hit the upright on a GW FG at the buzzer, fucked up a nice ML.

I would've picked Indianapolis +9.5 over Tennessee just against the spread. However, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will suspend me until all 32 NFL teams have at least one regular season win and loss for violating the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy.

I'm also not sure why one .500 team is laying 6 points to another on a neutral field?

Anyone else surprised to see the Bills priced this high? I know the Skins are banged up but I don't see much of a loss with Hightower going down. Torain was good in the system last year and he and Helu can pick up the slack. Santana Moss isn't a huge loss. London Fletcher is questionable so I'll have to keep an eye on that.

Buffalo shouldn't be laying 6 points to a high school team with a defense that bad.

I thought the same thing Andy when looking at that Bills line. Sign me up on the Skins degenerate line.

At first glance, I'm going to have to disagree on the Colts. Third straight road game coming off a demoralizing loss. I think vega had no choice but to set this line where it is. Maybe even of tennessee had won last week I would think it MIGHT be a letdown spot for them, but they got destroyed and are a much better squad than Indi in my opinion. Orindarily, I am ALL about the overreaction of the market; however in this case, I just don't think they can set the line high enough.

With you...and I also drop some of my Jags ML $$$ on Colts ML too.

 

Good points there andarmac99... But IMO, the Rams deserve another look this week against NO. They will cover the spread this week at home..BOL

They haven't covered a number all year.

Yeah, but this is a pretty good spot for them. The Cowboys raped the Rams 34-7 last week and the Saints raped the Colts for a staggering 62-7. Put the rapist and the raped victim together and what do you get? An inflated road favorite (although the line is not out yet, I would be guessing 12-14 pts). Look for the Rams to cover this week.

 

Very bad spot for the Rams imho. The reason why Saints blew out Colts at home because they were upset over the fact they have been playing poorly on the road. I think the Saints are flipping the switch to on for the rest of the season....they are going to blow out the Rams on the road this Sunday.

Anyone remember when grocery boy covered every game with the greatest show on turf? Lets just call it Karma now....... 

Come get you some if you havent' already.......

The Colts game is interesting. I usually love a team coming off a complete embarassment...but here we have two. Had the Titans not played so poorly on Sunday, I'd be on the Colts at whatever number. But the Titans seem to make a habit of bouncing back from poor performances - bye week sandwich notwithstanding - with stingy defensive performances. And while I have no doubt that the Colts defense will do everything it can to regain its manhood, I'm not sure whether they'll be able to keep the Titans output low enough to land inside the number. I hope they can. I like the under too. GL.

Titans/Texans was for a divisional lead....if anything, the Texans exposed the Titans more. I don't trust the Titans nor do I trust the Colts but a team (Titans) that was picked to finish above .500 will be finishing below .500 this season. Titans has a new coach, new scheme, best receiver went down, new QB, and CJ  with a huge contract is toking every night to where his head is not even in the game anymore. Titans have alot of issues and the reason why Colts are catching this many pts is because of the Saints. When the Colts cover and win...I will be sending a profit sharing check to the Saints as an early xmas present.......

Don't go early again. Wait for Indy +10.

Two good afc south divisional matchups this week with over inflated lines. 

Last week the Rams crushed you. Now it's another winless team. And..stop picking these teams to come out of there hole. They are going to struggle in this wind out here. I will be at this game, as I have been to every home game for the Titans. I am telling you...the wind is an enormous factor, especially for dome teams like the Colts. Painter is dreadful. No play on this game my friend. The only way Colts cover is if Chris Johnson fumbles the ball 3 times or runs backwards. Being that I believe he may do just that, this game is a no-play.

 

If you know Wade Phillips as a DC (not HC) you know this defense will start to improve as the season wears on. Mario Williams is out...have anyone mention anything of him? Has the defense drop off? No......point of the matter is, their D is top 10 and that is not surprising to me to say the least. Gabbert didn't show me anything, the Ravens beat themselves. I had Jags that game so hear me out....texans played a complete game last week, that's the 1st time I have seen them do that. This texans defense/offense are playing at a high level, I think the texans will shut down the Jags running game completely and the Texans will get 3-4 sacks on Gabbert this Sunday. That # is right imho...

You have a good point about the lines. I've used the "up and coming team that thinks they're good gets crushed by a real team" angle a lot. Losses like the Titans have suffered the last two weeks are very deflating.

I'm just not sure it was a demoralizing loss for the Colts. They knew they were shit, not like the Titans who actually had a shot to do something. Before last week the Colts last 4 games were a late blown lead to PIT, a late TD to the Bucs with 3 minutes left, a blown 10 point halftime lead and late GW TD surrendered to the Cheifs with 5 minutes left, and a late fumble return TD for Cincy when Indy had the ball late down 3 with a chance to win. Those were very tough losses. It just seemed like it caught up with them last week against a team that was far superior and was looking to cream somebody.

Fuck me, so do I. They might sneak up on the Saints here after NO wasted a lot of effort pounding the shit out of the Colts. The Saints play Tampa next week in a big division revenge game. I'm sure they don't care at all about the Rams. Sean Payton is probably eating hot dogs in the booth preparing for Tampa as he thinks his team rolls again over another piece of crap.

Looks like I am willing to lose money on the Rams for the 4th time already this season. I'm 11-20 ATS for a reason. I need help.

I don't see the Saints being upset over anything this week after what happened last week. I'd be shocked if they came out breathing fire again against the Rams because of their poor road play.

Tough game. I usually lean to taking the fat number when the favorite is off a big win. Kinda had the Jags circled after Houston whipped Tennessee but after the Jags won too I think it's a pass.

Sooner or later the numbers are going to catch up with these bad teams and they are going to start covering some numbers. I think it starts this week, then again I did have STL last week.

I hope the wind blows like hell. Wind is a great equalizer and is an underdog's best friend.

Someone talk to me about New England/Pittsburgh.

If I'm getting tired about hearing how Pittsburgh is old, New England owns them, and Pittsburgh has beat up on crap teams while losing bad to the only two goods teams they've played, then how must the Steelers feel?

I'll be the first to admit I was on the Pittsburgh is old and their defense can't stop a good offense train earlier in the year. I faded them against Baltimore and Houston and cashed both times. The problem with this is it is like the Falcons last week, everyone now thinks they are probably down, old, overrated, and can't beat good teams and as a result we see radically different lines. These two teams met less than a year ago and the line was PIT -4.5. Has the gap between these teams really increased by 7.5 points? I'm not sure. I don't think New England is as good as they were last year, their defense has taken some hits and some of the younger players who played last year have played pretty bad this year.

If I didn't know any better I'd say this was a statement game for the Steelers, but then again Tom Brady owns them, they are old, and can't beat good teams. But I'm sure you already knew that.

I love the Colts probably gonna be my biggest play this week it's way more deflating for Tennessee like you said now knowing they are a fraud- the Colts had 3 emotional losses in a row in close games to Pitt, TB, and Cincy last week they were a bit down and ran into a buzzsaw in Nawlins plus Painter has never played on the road in a dome environment like that.  The Colts will be determined here as they are proud and no way will get throttled like they did last week

For the Steelers I think you see a very competitive game.  I would take Pitt but their D-Line is just too injured right now.  I really like the Under, I can't see Brady going into Pitt again and lightin up the top ranked pass D (might be overrated cause of the bad teams they've played but even then they are good and proud) and the Pats D has actually been playing some solid football of late- Mayo might return and an extra week for Bellichick will allow them to come up with a good gameplan to slow the Pitt O down

I'm also leaning Balty (I think Zona has nothing that can slow em down), Seattle (line is a joke), and the Broncos.

Really wanna know what you think about two games:
The Eagles game- I don't like the Eagles but off a bye with Cole and Peters back they might be in good shape cause if they have the DBs to match up with the Cowboys O but can they stop the run

The Chiefs game- I think SD sufferred a tough loss and will be down going up against a pumped Chiefs team and crowd- but I'm a little nervous cause KC gave em a run for their money earlier this year and beat them on Monday night at home last year

BOL Mac

My 2cents on the pitt/pats game, Most sharp betters will be on the steelers, would think most squares will be on the pats, that being said I think the squares may win this game, Pitts run game is horrbile, I think they had 2 good rushing weeks, Pitt hasnt't got that many turnovers this year, pats always seem to get the turnovers when they need them, by no means to I think New England is sb bound this year, but I also don't think pitt is either. the spread offense sort of neutalizes Troy P.  I think he is the key to there defense doing well, Pats have 2 weeks to prepare and Belle always does good with that amount of time.  I will be betting the public side, Pats -2.5 in this game.

I like Dallas +3.5 and Minny +3.5 aswell, Prob give Seattle and San Diego a play to, buy low on San Diego.