OK.....I have some things I wanted to share....and if anyone wants to comment....please do.
I have not posted in a while, and wanted to get some perspective on my thinking.
Just like yesterday......84% of public was on the Colts....KC wins outright. Line only moved 1 point......
73% on the Eagles....thinking they would bounce back....Bills take it outright. Line stayed at -3 for the Eagles the entire time...
79% on the Saints.....Panthers covered. Line only moved 1/2 point in the right direction.....should have moved more in my opinion......
77% on the G-Men......They lost outright. Line never vaired either way......stayed at -10.....
Tonight, my thinking is based on this....the Lions open up at -6.....and its holding put. The Bears have played a tougher schedule, and the Lions have really not played a very strong team.....The public is all over the line at -6 for the Lions, thinking the Lions will post a DD win over the Bears. How many people actually picked KC to cover? OR even the Bills....based on PHILLY's situation....I saw LOTS of people on the opposite side of these picks.
Based on that.....I will take the Bears +6, and be on the Vegas side. I will also tease the Bears to +13 and OVER 40.
OK.....I have some things I wanted to share....and if anyone wants to comment....please do.
I have not posted in a while, and wanted to get some perspective on my thinking.
Just like yesterday......84% of public was on the Colts....KC wins outright. Line only moved 1 point......
73% on the Eagles....thinking they would bounce back....Bills take it outright. Line stayed at -3 for the Eagles the entire time...
79% on the Saints.....Panthers covered. Line only moved 1/2 point in the right direction.....should have moved more in my opinion......
77% on the G-Men......They lost outright. Line never vaired either way......stayed at -10.....
Tonight, my thinking is based on this....the Lions open up at -6.....and its holding put. The Bears have played a tougher schedule, and the Lions have really not played a very strong team.....The public is all over the line at -6 for the Lions, thinking the Lions will post a DD win over the Bears. How many people actually picked KC to cover? OR even the Bills....based on PHILLY's situation....I saw LOTS of people on the opposite side of these picks.
Based on that.....I will take the Bears +6, and be on the Vegas side. I will also tease the Bears to +13 and OVER 40.
I respect your opinion. However, Minny is total garbage, and Tampon Bay has no serious threat (they just got trounced by SF)
Dallas I agree, is not a visitor friendly stadium....but the Cowgirls continously show how inconsistant they really are. The Lions have a weak defense.....they have allowed points in the first half...and I think with the Bears running game.....it will keep them on the field longer....and they will be begging for a break. Fairley is making his debut.....but he is just that....a rookie. Not saying he is not a good player....but I think he needs some time to adjust.
The Lions are MUCH improved.....but if the line is begging people to take the Lions, and everyone says they will cover by DD....then that is exactly what Vegas wants....
I respect your opinion. However, Minny is total garbage, and Tampon Bay has no serious threat (they just got trounced by SF)
Dallas I agree, is not a visitor friendly stadium....but the Cowgirls continously show how inconsistant they really are. The Lions have a weak defense.....they have allowed points in the first half...and I think with the Bears running game.....it will keep them on the field longer....and they will be begging for a break. Fairley is making his debut.....but he is just that....a rookie. Not saying he is not a good player....but I think he needs some time to adjust.
The Lions are MUCH improved.....but if the line is begging people to take the Lions, and everyone says they will cover by DD....then that is exactly what Vegas wants....
People are still living in the past..this lions team is a totally different team then what we have seen from them in the last years...they are the real deal...their defense will put on a clinic tonight..go ahead and take the bears getting 6 or 7 it looks so good..they beat the falcons they played a better schedule..they got dominated by the saints and if not for heater and a couple other big plays the bears would have lost at home to the panthers.. Lions have balance and cutler is not the qb with that Oline to walk into detroit tonight for the first monday night game in that city since barry sanders i believe.. Detroit has had this game circled...they stunt tonight.. go take the points.good luck
People are still living in the past..this lions team is a totally different team then what we have seen from them in the last years...they are the real deal...their defense will put on a clinic tonight..go ahead and take the bears getting 6 or 7 it looks so good..they beat the falcons they played a better schedule..they got dominated by the saints and if not for heater and a couple other big plays the bears would have lost at home to the panthers.. Lions have balance and cutler is not the qb with that Oline to walk into detroit tonight for the first monday night game in that city since barry sanders i believe.. Detroit has had this game circled...they stunt tonight.. go take the points.good luck
I don't think the logic is wrong, however the Packers opened at -4.5, it went up to -6 which should technically bait people into putting the packers in a teaser, and not only did they cover the teaser they covered the game as well. And that was a prime time heavily bet public outcome. So why wouldn't the same happen tonight? Now the Lions have covered 3/4 (1 push that they won outright) and 4 straight overs. The public see's this and things the Lions will win and cover a high scoring game (which is definitely possible the way they have been playing). But the lines are inflated to take that type of action on the Lions and the over. So I'm inclined to agree ejdav that the Bears are a decent play. I personally think the under is a better play if one is to go against the public.
I don't think the logic is wrong, however the Packers opened at -4.5, it went up to -6 which should technically bait people into putting the packers in a teaser, and not only did they cover the teaser they covered the game as well. And that was a prime time heavily bet public outcome. So why wouldn't the same happen tonight? Now the Lions have covered 3/4 (1 push that they won outright) and 4 straight overs. The public see's this and things the Lions will win and cover a high scoring game (which is definitely possible the way they have been playing). But the lines are inflated to take that type of action on the Lions and the over. So I'm inclined to agree ejdav that the Bears are a decent play. I personally think the under is a better play if one is to go against the public.
At the end of the day nobody knows whats going to happen..were here to state our opinions.. and i don't see how the bears score more then 14 unless heater breaks one or the defense makes a huge play..which is very capable..but i feel detritus motivation for this game will be a lot stronger and i think they play an A+game
At the end of the day nobody knows whats going to happen..were here to state our opinions.. and i don't see how the bears score more then 14 unless heater breaks one or the defense makes a huge play..which is very capable..but i feel detritus motivation for this game will be a lot stronger and i think they play an A+game
How about San Diego yesterday? Massive public bet. Covered. Public teams win plenty. Also, there was plenty of line movement on those games you mentioned. Just looking at the opening and close doesn't tell the story.
Unless you have an inside line, you don't know what is causing line movement. It could be a single medium-sized bet from a respected sharp. It could be massive public money. It could player or coaching information. It could be a syndicate or big money player placing a huge wager.
Lack of line movement could be caused by any of the above, plus a few other reasons. Not wanting to let sharps middle is a huge reason to avoid moving lines onto or off of key numbers. Balancing money from teasers and parlays is another. And there are even more.
Without knowing why a line is (or isn't) moving a certain way, you're opening yourself up to even more risk than there already is in this game. Personally, I'd never place a bet just because of line movement. Cap a game, then see if you can glean anything from the line movement. Not the other way around.
How about San Diego yesterday? Massive public bet. Covered. Public teams win plenty. Also, there was plenty of line movement on those games you mentioned. Just looking at the opening and close doesn't tell the story.
Unless you have an inside line, you don't know what is causing line movement. It could be a single medium-sized bet from a respected sharp. It could be massive public money. It could player or coaching information. It could be a syndicate or big money player placing a huge wager.
Lack of line movement could be caused by any of the above, plus a few other reasons. Not wanting to let sharps middle is a huge reason to avoid moving lines onto or off of key numbers. Balancing money from teasers and parlays is another. And there are even more.
Without knowing why a line is (or isn't) moving a certain way, you're opening yourself up to even more risk than there already is in this game. Personally, I'd never place a bet just because of line movement. Cap a game, then see if you can glean anything from the line movement. Not the other way around.
You forgot one important thing pay attention to the ML...If you have ML and Spread public picking a team over 70% that is when u fade...this game u had 70% on ml on the bears....the other over 70% is on the spread for detroit...Remember if public is on a team ML and Spread over 70% that is when it is a good time to fade ...Vegas made their money on bears ML...They will find some way to cover their loss...Thank me later buddy
You forgot one important thing pay attention to the ML...If you have ML and Spread public picking a team over 70% that is when u fade...this game u had 70% on ml on the bears....the other over 70% is on the spread for detroit...Remember if public is on a team ML and Spread over 70% that is when it is a good time to fade ...Vegas made their money on bears ML...They will find some way to cover their loss...Thank me later buddy
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