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[NFL Betting] Topic: mTbaKer's NFL Picks- Week 4 |
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mtbaker |
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#1 Posted: 10/1/2011 10:32:00 PM Texans -3.5 (-103) to win 12.5 units
The Texans have a new attitude this year than in years previous. It’s fantastic that they get to play at home against the Steelers. They will be up for this game and it is a chance for them to redeem themselves and show that they are an AFC Contender. The Texans match up great with the Colts. Last week HOU couldn’t stop NO cause the Saint’s O-Line is terrific and limits pressure. The Steelers offensive line is disgusting. The Steelers give up a lot of sacks and that’s gonna be a problem when trying to contain Mario Williams, JJ Watt and Co. Cushing will play with an extra chip on his shoulder cause Harrison called him “juiced” and ridiculed him in the off-season. The Steelers haven’t run the ball well either. On the other side the Steel rank #1 in pass D. But…they’ve played the Seahawks and Manning-less Colts. The Steelers secondary is not very good in pass coverage and I expect Schaub to expose them. Schuab’s O-Line is solid and won’t be under too much duress cause the Steelers have trouble stopping the ball and A Foster is back. |
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#2 Posted: 10/1/2011 10:32:43 PM Chargers -7 (-106) to win 13.5 units
The Chargers have a ton of value in this game. The Dolphins are terrible. Sporano is pretty much fired after last week. The Dolphins gave the Browns a hell of a game in a must-win for their season pretty much. Guess what they blew it. The Chargers had a lackluster performance against the Chiefs cause they were off of a tough emotional loss to the Pats. Regardless they won the game. They were not sharp against the Vikings and the Chiefs. They will be very sharp for this game after the Chiefs almost beat em.
http://www.chargers.com/news/article-1/Big-plays-a-focus/42a0160c-dbcf-463b-bb4e-a580e7143b8f
Gates is out but so what. VJax is in along with Floyd and McMichael isn’t bad. Rivers played with a disgusting WR core last year and did more than okay. The Miami pass D is terrible, their pass rush sucks and their run-D is nothing special. Rivers should torch them.
On the other side of the ball Henne has really struggled the last 2 games. The Chargers only main weakness on D is stopping the run. However, Daniel Thomas is injured so the Chargers will not have a problem stopping them.
Blowout alert.
Browns PK (-110) to win 10 units
Wish I hit this today as the Browns have a more favourable line. The Titans are coming off of a comeback win and it was Matt Hasselback’s Bday last week so I’m sure he popped a few after the Titans unimpressive comeback win over the Broncos. A huge factor for me in this game is that Mike Holmgren who works for the Browns coached Hasselback for many successful years in Seattle. He knows the ins and outs of Matt and will really help person Jauron scheme a gameplan to shut him down. That gameplan should work well with Kenny Britt out. Haden is a very good defensive back for the Browns and will shut down Washington. Chris Johnson will face a lot of attention due to this injury and he’s been struggling. The Titans don’t have much depth at wideout so this is gonna be a long day for their offense.
Hillis is coming back for the Browns and Hardesty had a good game last week. The Browns RBs should do well with the return of O-Lineman Pashos. Colt McCoy didn’t do anything special but he pulled out a close win last week. The Browns were involved in many close games last season. All of that experience will give them confidence here. At home in a big game to go 3-1 the Browns will get it done against a tough Titans D. |
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mtbaker |
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#3 Posted: 10/1/2011 10:33:00 PM Jets - Ravens Under 42.5 (-105) to win 10 units
The Jets got abused last weekend. Their traditionally stout run D got run over and even Revis Island had a volcanic eruption under the Oakland sun. The media are bashing the Jets and this is the type of game where the Jets shine. They were looking ahead to the big showdown against the Ravens and their D is going to take this personal. The Jets can pressure the QB and the Ravens don’t have the best O-Line. Revis and Cromartie can bottle up the Ravens wideouts and Leonhard is a decent safety to match up with a tight end. I just can’t see Ray Rice plowing through the Jets front 7 this week.
The Jets won’t score that well either. The Ravens have a terrific pass rush and will be in Sanchez’s grill all day long. As for the running game the Ravens are top 10 against the run and the Jets haven’t been able to run well all year. This is a pivotal game for these two teams and I expect great intensity here. 42.5 is too high, as I don’t think the coaches will air it out a ton in a tight game.
Saints – Jaguars Over 44.5 (-110) to win 7.5 units
The Jaguars have been good on D, but their second best defensive back Derek Cox is injured. This is going to be a massive problem for the Jags D going up against Drew Brees who is almost unstoppable at the moment. The Jags have a good run D but the Saints run it reasonably well at over 4 yards a carry cause of all the attention on Drew Brees and his passing ability. I can’t see the Jags bottling up the Saints.
I don’t think Gabbert is as bad as he was last week. Regardless the Saints can’t stop the pass for garbage and their porous run D is going to have an awful time with Jones-Drew. The Saints may be a little flat after last week’s win and two divisional road games coming up after Jax. They won’t be totally focused especially with Vilma out again. Gimme the Over as the Saints win a wild one.
Vikings – Chiefs Under 39.5 (-107) to win 7.5 units
The last time the Chiefs played at home they gave up 41 points to the Bills. After decent performances against the Chargers and Lions you better believe that they’ll be much more focused for a game that they could win. The Chiefs aren’t bad against the run and their talented secondary should do well against McNabb. The Vikings would usually be flat after 3 tough losses but with Jared Allen who’s the leader of this D playing his former team the Vikings D will be riled up for this one. Cassel won’t have time to throw and the Chiefs who have not run the ball well will be in tough against a solid and big Vikings run D.
That’s it for the week. Let’s build on Week 2 and 3.
GL |
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mtbaker |
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#4 Posted: 10/1/2011 10:34:56 PM NFL Preseason-to-date: 7-1-0 (+21.66 units)
NFL Regular Season-to-date: 9-9-0 (+3.54 units)
Futures:
Jacksonville Jaguars Under 6 Wins (+155) to win 50 units 
Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units 
Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units
49ers to win NFC West Division (+272) to win 30 units |
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tito40 |
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#5 Posted: 10/1/2011 11:29:10 PM  |
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princeofasia |
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#6 Posted: 10/1/2011 11:38:11 PM  |
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phat03 |
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#7 Posted: 10/1/2011 11:51:51 PM Texans -3.5 
Best of luck... |
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CRS |
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#8 Posted: 10/2/2011 12:05:10 AM |
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#9 Posted: 10/2/2011 12:40:49 AM
Texans always choke at home when it s a big game. Last year they were 2-0 when Dallas came and lost. 3-1 when Giants came and lost , both as short fav. 4-3 when San Diego came and i took em as 3 points dog and they were up at half time but nah .. they were down 6 with 3 min left . They drove into San diego side with enough time left and Matt threw inteception,, Choked and burned my money. I
won't bet them until Texans shows they can win those big game.
Good Luck!
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thunderpubes |
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#10 Posted: 10/2/2011 1:21:13 AM
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larryhughes |
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#11 Posted: 10/2/2011 1:42:17 AM
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manstar10 |
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#12 Posted: 10/2/2011 1:52:28 AM  |
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mtbaker |
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#13 Posted: 10/2/2011 5:28:01 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by tito40:
great write-ups mt - agree with a couple of em - gl
thanks tito appreciate it! |
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mtbaker |
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#14 Posted: 10/2/2011 5:29:39 AM princeofasia and CRS |
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mtbaker |
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#15 Posted: 10/2/2011 5:30:23 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by phat03:
Texans -3.5
Best of luck...
ya buddy I think they step up big tomorrow |
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mtbaker |
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#16 Posted: 10/2/2011 5:31:09 AM |
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mtbaker |
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#17 Posted: 10/2/2011 5:31:47 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by thunderpubes:
Hou, SD, NO/Jax over Lets get it
ya i like it man cmon let's get a 3-0 here |
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mtbaker |
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#18 Posted: 10/2/2011 5:33:20 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Chimpo:
I like Brown pick and Saints/Jag Over. Without Britt to stretch the field , i think that Matt will have a trouble. Jag s O comes alive or at least they ll try and score just enough. Saints will do what they do and goes over.
Texans always choke at home when it s a big game. Last year they were 2-0 when Dallas came and lost. 3-1 when Giants came and lost , both as short fav. 4-3 when San Diego came and i took em as 3 points dog and they were up at half time but nah .. they were down 6 with 3 min left . They drove into San diego side with enough time left and Matt threw inteception,, Choked and burned my money. I
won't bet them until Texans shows they can win those big game.
Good Luck!
love the input man, I understand where you're coming from with HOU and SD as they have dissapointed in these situations many times. I think HOU rights the ship tomorrow and SD pllays a horrific Phins D and lights them up. Hope things work out. |
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ballinonabudget |
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#19 Posted: 10/2/2011 12:27:45 PM |
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HotRoute |
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#20 Posted: 10/2/2011 12:29:27 PM |
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mtbaker |
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#21 Posted: 10/2/2011 1:05:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ballinonabudget: GL Baker, Im on Hou with you along with cincy and chicago
BOL man I really liked your write-up in someone's thread about Chicago game I think they win by double digits I was just nervous about how they'd react to GB loss but I think that hits their D is too much for Newton.
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mtbaker |
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#22 Posted: 10/2/2011 1:05:28 PM
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andarmac99 |
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#23 Posted: 10/2/2011 1:10:42 PM
GL buddy.
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crazycapper21 |
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#24 Posted: 10/2/2011 1:12:09 PM |
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Denverb |
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#25 Posted: 10/2/2011 1:19:34 PM
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