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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFC/AFC Championship Games
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/19/2011 5:12:30 PM

Well the WildCard Round was a 3-Loss Week for me, while the Divisional Round was a 3-Win Week for me, netting me an overall 3-4 Record for the NFL Playoffs.

This Week, I'm hoping to get back above (or to an even) .500 for the playoffs. That will take a 2-0 Week or a 2-1 Week, depending on if I decide to bet the totals.

Everyone seems to be getting all caught up in my Postseason "Units Won/Units Lost". This is the end of the Season, and after this there will be no more betting for me until next Season... I'm up on the Regular Season so im playing with "House Money"... So I told myself I'm going to Bet every single game. Even if the "Units Lost" in the Playoffs were enough to bring me down to "Even" on the Season, I look at it this way... I Paid for a Great Time! Just like when I go to the Casino (outside of Poker), I set aside "Gambling Money" and if I Lose it, thats fine bc I was willing to Pay for a Good Time... And I view the NFL Postseason this way aswell. I cant chase, I cant get in over my head, so if I Lose, it was Well Worth the GREAT Time I'm having!!!

With that said, onto the Picks...

 

Conference Championship Games:

 

Green Bay @ Chicago +4.5 (-130): It seems like suddenly everyone is "crowning" the Packers a bit prematurely, similar to how everyone was "crowning" the Patriots... How'd they make out? With that said, I did buy this line in my favor for -20 Juice because I could see a 24-20, or a 17-13 type of final, so that additional point 'could' loom HUGE (it also 'could' Lose me more juice, lol). Everyone seems to talk about Cutler and how bad he "could be" when hes off his game, but noone ever seems to mention how good he "could be" when hes on his game. Lovie realized that their Defense and Special Teams was good enough to Win them A LOT of games, and bc of this, him and Martz have created an Offensive system that doesnt force Cutler to make plays. What I liked about this past week is Cutler seems to be using Olsen A LOT more, as hes a big time mismatch for most Defenses. He uses Knox to stretch the field and utilizes Knox's speed within the system. Forte is a solid all around RB who can "hit a HR" or pound the rock in btwn the tackles, but Forte is also a very good receiving RB outta the backfield. I really like the potential ability of this Bears offense and as long as they protect the football, I think they have more than enough weapons to power them into the Superbowl. Their Defense/Special Teams is Very Good as always, and Julius Peppers gives them the ability to Rush 4, play their Tampa 2 Zone, and still get A LOT of pressure on the QB. The Bears have the Defenders to matchup with A-Rod n his dynamic offense. Green Bay will need to establish the Rushing Attack in this game if they want to Win, unless Rodgers has ANOTHER Monster Game like lastweek, which is unlikely bc the Bears D is MUCH Better than the Falcons. The Falcons D played Cupcakes ALL Season long and GB Shredded them, the Bears will not allow this to happen. The Bears Tampa 2 Defense will be a MUCH Bigger task for Rodgers to defeat, especially if the Running Game is non-existant and Rodgers is forced to the air more than hed like, if this happens, I could see 4 Sacks and 2 INTs being generated. Devin Hester and the Special Teams are the X-Factors here, as they will give the Bears the Edge, along with their ROWDY Homefield Advantage. A lot of commentators and/or analysts said that Lovie Smith should have benched his starters against the Pack in Wk17, and a lot of you Packers backers are using this in your defense, claiming the Bears tried then and still lost. Lovie was smart though, he didnt let GB "walk into" the Playoffs, he made them fight, and almost Won. Lovie said he had a feeling that the Bears might meet the Packers again in the Playoffs so he used Wk17 to "test things out" against GB, since the Pack were in a "must-Win", he knew hed get their best looks. So Lovie "tried out a few new things" and has said he thinks he got some very valuable information out of this game. Im banking on Lovie using this "new" information to his advantage and exploiting these looks. Lovie was close to a Win while "trying new things" in Wk17, I expect Lovie to have perfected these new things now and utilize his "new info" to his advantage. netting a Win... and worst case scenario, I've got 4.5 Points to fall back on! (Laying 3-Units)

 

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#2
Posted: 1/19/2011 5:13:34 PM

New York Jets +3.5 @ Pittsburgh: Just gonna state a couple of well-known facts about this game... The Jets Won their 1st EVER Game in Pittsburgh during the Regular Season. This is Rex Ryan's 3rd Consecutive AFC Championship Game (Baltimore Defensive Coordinator in 09 & NYJ HC in 10), and hes publicly said he feels like he "must win" this time and that he couldnt handle a 3rd consecutive loss. Rex Ryan has made this Playoff Run personal and taken every single game to heart, and as a result, hes coached his heart out with success thus far! First it was the Colts who they avenged their 2010 AFC Game Loss, then it was the Pats 45-3 embarassment avenged, and now its Rex's 3rd Consecutive AFC Championship Game... I expect it to be avenged! The Jets are full of hungry veterans like LT and Jason Taylor who have never been closer to the Superbowl than now and they will absolutely play their Hearts out to get there. Shonn Greene is pretty fresh and should be able to combine with LT for an efficient Rushing Attack. The Pitt Run-D has been Ri-DONK-ulous this year, but I could see the Jets breaking a big play and netting around 80-100ish Yds, which will be good enough to setup the PA Pass and keep the Steelers "honest". Sanchez will need to make plays and silence his doubters, which I think he will step up and make those plays when needed. I hope Dustin Keller is a BIG Part of this gameplan, as Braylon and Santonio will "get theirs" on the outside, Keller 'could be' the difference maker here and create a mismatch underneath the coverage, mixing in the Play Action Pass will help Keller get a 'step' on the Outside LBs. The Jets Defense has a nice mixture of young talent and veterans, just the right mix to make a Superbowl Run. Adding Cromartie to go with Revis in the off-season was such a huge move, bc it allowed the Jets to man up against the great teams. The Jets great CBs allow them to play man-D and even when the pocket breaks down and Big Ben rolls out to make plays with his legs, the Jets defenders are good enough to stay with their man and limit these 'coverage breakdowns' that Big Ben seems to feast on when the pocket collapses. The Jets BIGGEST Problem ALL Season long has been their ability to Rush the Passer and cause Sacks and/or Pressure on the QB. Rex Ryan definitely has the personel to commit to the Blitz and still play Man, but I expect the Jets to mix in a lot more Zone Defense to limit Bens escapability and just "sit back and react" in their Zone Schemes. I hope the Jets cause A LOT of havok in the backfield, with Zone-Blitzes and Run-Blitzes, generating blown up plays in the backfield, aswell as Sacks and/or hurried Passes. The Jets Defense will Win this football game for them and Rex Ryan will FINALLY get his "AFC Champ's" Hats and T-Shirts that hes so hungry for! (Laying 3-Units)

 

I Wish You ALL Luck and Hope that you will do the Same!!!

 

Those WITH Me!!! 

 

Those AGAINST Me!!! 

 

Best of Luck to ALL!!! 

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#3
Posted: 1/19/2011 6:16:01 PM

You really believe both dogs will cover after seeing 5 dogs & only 3 favs covering so far.......I dont see it at all!

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#4
Posted: 1/19/2011 6:36:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

You really believe both dogs will cover after seeing 5 dogs & only 3 favs covering so far.......I dont see it at all!

What does 5 dogs and only 3 favorites covering have to do with this weekends games? Is there a quota every season?
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#5
Posted: 1/19/2011 6:38:11 PM
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#6
Posted: 1/19/2011 6:47:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

You really believe both dogs will cover after seeing 5 dogs & only 3 favs covering so far.......I dont see it at all!

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#7
Posted: 1/19/2011 6:55:03 PM
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#8
Posted: 1/19/2011 9:41:09 PM
DOGS GL
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#9
Posted: 1/19/2011 10:13:27 PM
Looks good
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#10
Posted: 1/19/2011 10:53:03 PM
Sometimes going w/ the heart is right Bets....i thought u would pull the trigger on both homers glad u at least righted the ship to grab one win.....it's a Packer story baby...BOL   
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#11
Posted: 1/19/2011 10:55:11 PM

 Like the plays bro even jumped on CHI to take it all +600 shits and giggles ya never know!

BOL Bro

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#12
Posted: 1/19/2011 10:58:21 PM
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#13
Posted: 1/20/2011 3:23:46 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Splooge:

Sometimes going w/ the heart is right Bets....i thought u would pull the trigger on both homers glad u at least righted the ship to grab one win.....it's a Packer story baby...BOL   

Best of Luck Brother!!! 

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#14
Posted: 1/20/2011 5:36:34 AM
GL.
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#15
Posted: 1/20/2011 5:44:29 AM
DA BEARS
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#16
Posted: 1/20/2011 7:47:59 AM
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#17
Posted: 1/20/2011 9:03:41 AM
Cutler just doesn't get the job done when playing that PACKERS D. This is a hard game for me because I want the Bears to win this game.I'm pretty sure come this weekend I will be on GB -3. So GL with the 41/2!
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#18
Posted: 1/20/2011 9:22:29 AM
Professional writeups as usual. I just think you may have jumped the gun on the -130. I think the public is going force it up to 4.5 or 5. Just my .02. BTW I like both choices. Good Luck. And I hope the -130 don't mean zilch!
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#19
Posted: 1/20/2011 10:05:26 AM
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#20
Posted: 1/20/2011 11:08:24 AM
I'm not one of those "Sanchez doubters".  His stats aren't great, but he's great at racking up W's on the road, in the postseason.

As far as the Bears go, here is a fun fact:  when they rush  21 or more times in a game, they are 10-0 this season.

Run, Forte, run   

thanks for the writeups bets2win 


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#21
Posted: 1/20/2011 3:12:49 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BroadwayBob:

Professional writeups as usual. I just think you may have jumped the gun on the -130. I think the public is going force it up to 4.5 or 5. Just my .02. BTW I like both choices. Good Luck. And I hope the -130 don't mean zilch!

you may be right sir... lets hope it doesnt backfire!

GL

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#22
Posted: 1/20/2011 3:19:13 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by HEFADEME:

I'm not one of those "Sanchez doubters".  His stats aren't great, but he's great at racking up W's on the road, in the postseason.

As far as the Bears go, here is a fun fact:  when they rush  21 or more times in a game, they are 10-0 this season.

Run, Forte, run   

thanks for the writeups bets2win 


LOVE the stat HEFADEME!!!

Now that I know this, I'll be watching the game with a Pen and Pad, nervously tallying every one of Forte's Rushes...  ... HaHa!

Is there a "Prop Bet" on Matt Forte's Rushes for the Game? I'm sure there is but my Local's Website doesnt post "Game Props" Until the day of the Game... Anyone care to check/share Forte's O/U for Rushes in the Game??? That could be interesting!

 

Best of Luck HEFADEME! Thanks for the insight buddy!  

 

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#23
Posted: 1/20/2011 7:32:33 PM
Love that you're on my team (the Jets) and the Bears, who I really want to take. Totally agree with your reasoning on the Jets, too. People think the Jets might let down. No shot in hell. Ellis, Taylor, Richardson, and Tomlinson may be on their last runs, and they will be integral parts to the Jets. The Jets have better personnel in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Both defenses are about equal. Man for man, I'd say the Jets have more talent, but Polamalu is a wildcard. How healthy is he? If he's not himself, as some people are saying, then the Jets have the advantage defensively. But he always has the ability to wreak havoc, and Sanchez didn't have to worry about him last time.

To me, Braylon Edwards was the difference last game offensively, and he will be again. The Steelers do not have the personnel to match up with him. If Polamalu starts cheating in that direction, the Jets will mix it up with Keller and Holmes in matchups they can win.

As for the Bears, I'm more skeptical on this one. Everything tells me to trust Aaron Rodgers, and I think he is a great quarterback. I also like the Packers' defense a lot.

But the Bears defense is just as good as the Packers'. And Forte will be able to run the ball better than Starks/Jackson/Kuhn. In Chicago, that place will be nuts, and the Bears have a huge edge on special teams, which will make the difference. And I get 3.5 points to boot, so if it's a field goal game (or less) the other way, I still win. I'd probably rather buy half the point to get a push at the +4, but it's not a bad idea either way.

Good luck, hope you win both. Nice season.
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#24
Posted: 1/20/2011 10:54:37 PM
BETS2WIN,

I am in your same boat bro. I have won a lot through my local this year and don't mind losing a little bit for entertainments purposes. Back to the games...

Keep it simple!

WHEN THE WHOLE WORLD IS ON ONE BOAT, YOU JUMP TO THE OTHER SHIP!

DA BEARS +3.5

JETS +3.5



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#25
Posted: 1/20/2011 11:52:20 PM
BOLTA WINNERS ALL WEEKEND!!!!!!
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