Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Save your money... Play UNDER 41
Larry_Legend send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Larry_Legend
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1292
Location: Massachusetts
#1
Posted: 11/8/2010 9:52:15 AM

77% on over and it drops from 41.5 to 41.... that alone is enough for me to play it.

Ben will have long time eating drives only to fumble or throw picks in the red zone... nobody shaves points better than Rothlisberger.

quote
KktdocT
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KktdocT
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 63474
Location: United Kingdom
#2
Posted: 11/8/2010 9:55:35 AM
quote
big10buckeye send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
big10buckeye
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 2073
Location: Ohio
#3
Posted: 11/8/2010 10:05:17 AM
quote
suckerg send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
suckerg
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 872
Location: Illinois
#4
Posted: 11/8/2010 10:06:49 AM
on it
quote
RickeM send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
RickeM
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 7967
Location: New York
#5
Posted: 11/8/2010 10:18:39 AM
77%? Where did you get this figure?
quote
Larry_Legend send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Larry_Legend
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1292
Location: Massachusetts
#6
Posted: 11/8/2010 10:24:37 AM

covers has it at 79% over

77% is from vegas insider dot com

quote
D-Town send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
D-Town
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 120365
Location: Michigan
#7
Posted: 11/8/2010 11:57:11 AM
Good luck Larry. 
quote
frank the tank send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
frank the tank
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5755
Location:
#8
Posted: 11/8/2010 11:59:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Larry_Legend:

77% on over and it drops from 41.5 to 41.... that alone is enough for me to play it.

Ben will have long time eating drives only to fumble or throw picks in the red zone... nobody shaves points better than Rothlisberger.



% don't matter to me anymore. I play Under all the time and I see some ridiculous stuff like last night that kickoff "fumble" for a TD then a Clay Matthews int return for a TD. And that Min/Jets Under. Public is winning more than enough on the overs this year
quote
The_Wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
The_Wolf
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 377
Location: Texas
#9
Posted: 11/8/2010 1:07:56 PM
The % and consensus #'s have nothing to do with the amount of $$$ on either side. When we see a reverse line movement like that, in all probability it is the amount of $$$ on a side. Not the # of wagers. 

Whales and sharps can move a line with 1 wager.                         

1000 bets of $50 = 1 very light wager from 1 sharp and/or 1 whale.  


.     
quote
peanutt612 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
peanutt612
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1757
Location: Minnesota
#10
Posted: 11/8/2010 1:09:47 PM
SNF AND MNF Have Been OVER QUITE A BIT. I'm Not Exact On The % But 85-90% Over At Minimum
quote
The_Wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
The_Wolf
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 377
Location: Texas
#11
Posted: 11/8/2010 1:11:48 PM
Larry_Legend don't take this personally but maybe you could learn a bit more before telling fellas on here what to do with their $$$. 
quote
acrrr send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
acrrr
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 519
Location: Texas
#12
Posted: 11/8/2010 1:12:11 PM
quote
Rocafella
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Rocafella
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 21417
Location: Pennsylvania
#13
Posted: 11/8/2010 1:15:25 PM
quote
Larry_Legend send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Larry_Legend
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1292
Location: Massachusetts
#14
Posted: 11/8/2010 1:53:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The_Wolf:

The % and consensus #'s have nothing to do with the amount of $$$ on either side. When we see a reverse line movement like that, in all probability it is the amount of $$$ on a side. Not the # of wagers. 

Whales and sharps can move a line with 1 wager.                         

1000 bets of $50 = 1 very light wager from 1 sharp and/or 1 whale.  


.     

I'm quite aware of this.  Under 41 hits, watch.

quote
Larry_Legend send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Larry_Legend
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1292
Location: Massachusetts
#15
Posted: 11/8/2010 1:54:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The_Wolf:

Larry_Legend don't take this personally but maybe you could learn a bit more before telling fellas on here what to do with their $$$. 

I've been around longer than you.... 

quote
-SofaKingCool- send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
-SofaKingCool-
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 722
Location: Togo
#16
Posted: 11/8/2010 1:58:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Larry_Legend:

I've been around longer than you.... 

yea but hes not trying to tell people where to put their money based on false information

quote
krik913 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
krik913
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 281
Location: Pennsylvania
#17
Posted: 11/8/2010 2:01:35 PM

  I agree he was just trying to give you a better understanding

 of how it works,so that being said,i still have no idea about tonight!

quote
Larry_Legend send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Larry_Legend
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1292
Location: Massachusetts
#18
Posted: 11/8/2010 2:02:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by -SofaKingCool-:

yea but hes not trying to tell people where to put their money based on false information

 

Its a subject line... why are you so sensitive? 

Also... its not false information.  I didn't say where the money was... I was referring to public perception.  Heaven forbid I used public perception to cap the game. 

Good luck on your OVER. 

quote
jmwhsc
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jmwhsc
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1710
Location: District of
              Columbia
#19
Posted: 11/8/2010 2:12:22 PM

If you really believe that 77% of the public in on a side, your are wrong. The infomation posted here on concensus and other sites isnt accurate. You play might be correct, I am just letting you know.

 

 

GL

quote
Larry_Legend send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Larry_Legend
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1292
Location: Massachusetts
#20
Posted: 11/8/2010 2:17:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jmwhsc:

If you really believe that 77% of the public in on a side, your are wrong. The infomation posted here on concensus and other sites isnt accurate. You play might be correct, I am just letting you know.

 

 

GL

As I understand it, those percentages are based off league contests from the web site.  Is 77% completely accurate as to which way people are actually placing their money?  Probably not, but its likely none of us really know.

Does anyone want to take the point that 77% are actually on the over?  That these percentages have zero reflection on how the public places their money down?  It might be off, but there is information there.  Even if it's off 20%, the public perception would still be favoring OVER.

quote
Larry_Legend send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Larry_Legend
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1292
Location: Massachusetts
#21
Posted: 11/8/2010 2:18:43 PM

Anyone ever get hosed on reverse line movement?  If you haven't, play the over tonight.  

 

quote
LasVegasLord
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LasVegasLord
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 16615
Location: Nevada
#22
Posted: 11/8/2010 2:53:50 PM
On it brother. Stronger play is Bengals +6.
quote
Ramathorn02 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ramathorn02
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2683
Location:
#23
Posted: 11/8/2010 3:25:07 PM
I saw 52% over at sbr.
quote
Slovak send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Slovak
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 10890
Location: Indiana
#24
Posted: 11/8/2010 3:29:33 PM
when did the line drop? it has been 41 since I saw it posted last monday night.
quote
err send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
err
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 6795
Location:
#25
Posted: 11/8/2010 3:30:25 PM
.5 pts
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.