Save your money... Play UNDER 41

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Save your money... Play UNDER 41
Larry_Legend PM Larry_Legend
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Posted: 11/8/2010 9:52:15 AM

77% on over and it drops from 41.5 to 41.... that alone is enough for me to play it.

Ben will have long time eating drives only to fumble or throw picks in the red zone... nobody shaves points better than Rothlisberger.

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Posted: 11/8/2010 9:55:35 AM
big10buckeye PM big10buckeye
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Posted: 11/8/2010 10:05:17 AM
suckerg PM suckerg
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Posted: 11/8/2010 10:06:49 AM
on it
RickeM PM RickeM
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Posted: 11/8/2010 10:18:39 AM
77%? Where did you get this figure?
Larry_Legend PM Larry_Legend
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Posted: 11/8/2010 10:24:37 AM

covers has it at 79% over

77% is from vegas insider dot com

D-Town PM D-Town
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Posted: 11/8/2010 11:57:11 AM
Good luck Larry. 
frank the tank PM frank the tank
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Posted: 11/8/2010 11:59:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Larry_Legend:

77% on over and it drops from 41.5 to 41.... that alone is enough for me to play it.

Ben will have long time eating drives only to fumble or throw picks in the red zone... nobody shaves points better than Rothlisberger.



% don't matter to me anymore. I play Under all the time and I see some ridiculous stuff like last night that kickoff "fumble" for a TD then a Clay Matthews int return for a TD. And that Min/Jets Under. Public is winning more than enough on the overs this year
The_Wolf PM The_Wolf
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:07:56 PM
The % and consensus #'s have nothing to do with the amount of $$$ on either side. When we see a reverse line movement like that, in all probability it is the amount of $$$ on a side. Not the # of wagers. 

Whales and sharps can move a line with 1 wager.                         

1000 bets of $50 = 1 very light wager from 1 sharp and/or 1 whale.  


.     
peanutt612 PM peanutt612
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:09:47 PM
SNF AND MNF Have Been OVER QUITE A BIT. I'm Not Exact On The % But 85-90% Over At Minimum
The_Wolf PM The_Wolf
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:11:48 PM
Larry_Legend don't take this personally but maybe you could learn a bit more before telling fellas on here what to do with their $$$. 
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:12:11 PM
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:15:25 PM
Larry_Legend PM Larry_Legend
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:53:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The_Wolf:

The % and consensus #'s have nothing to do with the amount of $$$ on either side. When we see a reverse line movement like that, in all probability it is the amount of $$$ on a side. Not the # of wagers. 

Whales and sharps can move a line with 1 wager.                         

1000 bets of $50 = 1 very light wager from 1 sharp and/or 1 whale.  


.     

I'm quite aware of this.  Under 41 hits, watch.

Larry_Legend PM Larry_Legend
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:54:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The_Wolf:

Larry_Legend don't take this personally but maybe you could learn a bit more before telling fellas on here what to do with their $$$. 

I've been around longer than you.... 

-SofaKingCool- PM -SofaKingCool-
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Posted: 11/8/2010 1:58:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Larry_Legend:

I've been around longer than you.... 

yea but hes not trying to tell people where to put their money based on false information

krik913 PM krik913
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Posted: 11/8/2010 2:01:35 PM

  I agree he was just trying to give you a better understanding

 of how it works,so that being said,i still have no idea about tonight!

Larry_Legend PM Larry_Legend
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Posted: 11/8/2010 2:02:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by -SofaKingCool-:

yea but hes not trying to tell people where to put their money based on false information

 

Its a subject line... why are you so sensitive? 

Also... its not false information.  I didn't say where the money was... I was referring to public perception.  Heaven forbid I used public perception to cap the game. 

Good luck on your OVER. 

jmwhsc PM jmwhsc
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Posted: 11/8/2010 2:12:22 PM

If you really believe that 77% of the public in on a side, your are wrong. The infomation posted here on concensus and other sites isnt accurate. You play might be correct, I am just letting you know.

 

 

GL

Larry_Legend PM Larry_Legend
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Posted: 11/8/2010 2:17:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jmwhsc:

If you really believe that 77% of the public in on a side, your are wrong. The infomation posted here on concensus and other sites isnt accurate. You play might be correct, I am just letting you know.

 

 

GL

As I understand it, those percentages are based off league contests from the web site.  Is 77% completely accurate as to which way people are actually placing their money?  Probably not, but its likely none of us really know.

Does anyone want to take the point that 77% are actually on the over?  That these percentages have zero reflection on how the public places their money down?  It might be off, but there is information there.  Even if it's off 20%, the public perception would still be favoring OVER.

Larry_Legend PM Larry_Legend
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Posted: 11/8/2010 2:18:43 PM

Anyone ever get hosed on reverse line movement?  If you haven't, play the over tonight.  

 

LasVegasLord PM LasVegasLord
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Posted: 11/8/2010 2:53:50 PM
On it brother. Stronger play is Bengals +6.
Ramathorn02 PM Ramathorn02
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Posted: 11/8/2010 3:25:07 PM
I saw 52% over at sbr.
err PM err
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Posted: 11/8/2010 3:30:25 PM
.5 pts
Jondlx99 PM Jondlx99
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Posted: 11/8/2010 3:40:02 PM
 over tonight
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