against my better judgement...

overall  3-5   37.5%

                sides   o/u
week 1     1-2     0-1
week 2     2-1     0-1
--------------------------
totals        3-3     0-2

week 2 judgement calls

ok.  i've broken several of my own wagering rules and it's bitten me in the
ass. i don't make excuses, so that's not what this is.  this is a segue to
the guidelines that i use to determine if i wager on my picks.  so, in no
particular order...

-the earlier in the season, the more conservative the pick.
there are always surprises (both good and bad) to start the season, why let
your money be exposed to those?  obviously there are bettors that wager on
exactly those things and love to fire off at the beginning of the season.
great, if that's their thing (some are really good at it), but it's not mine,
and that bit me.

-avoid teams that are inconsistent.
the season is full of teams that score 40 one week and 6 the next (or vice
versa).  some teams it happens to once all year, other teams it's every week
through the end of the season (yet another reason for me to avoid early season
action).  again, some bettors bet on exactly that thing, but it doesn't fit my
overall philosophy.

-don't over-react.
obviously, but everyone does at some point, particularly week two (guilty as
charged - even worse for me, cause i know better).  there will be opportunities
all year to go overboard based (solely) on last weeks results.  don't do it and
you'll be better off for it.  in fact, write this down, next year specifically
look for lines in week two that you can deem are set by the book to account for
public over-reaction.  even if you only pick up one extra bet because of it, it
will be totally worth it.

-don't wager on small margins.
some otherwise good bettors do, but this is one that i'm gonna say that, no
matter how good you are otherwise, is a terrible thing to do.  it's a long
season with tons of games every week, save your money for your best picks.  it
always makes me sad to hear two buddies talking while standing in line at the
window that team A is going to win by a field goal, therefore they are going to
take team A -2.5.  wait for a game where you think team A is going to win by two
touchdowns to take them -2.5 (a best-case example, but you get the idea).  same
thing applies to totals.  i can't tell you how many times i hear otherwise-solid
bettors say they think team A will beat team B 24-21, therefore they are going
to take over 42.  really?  wait for a game you think is going to go at least 10
points over (or under) to bet a total.  i can't state this one enough (to myself
especially), play only big margins.

-one wager per game (obviously, this does not apply to halftime middles).
this is one that starts out as a rule and diminishes into a guideline (and then
disappears altogether) as the season goes on.  basically it is, again, about
being conservative.  sometimes one factor that you noted (or missed) is all it
takes for a solid pick to be very wrong.  why lose two bets, instead of one.

-keep (your) emotion out of it.
duh.  everyone knows this, yet hardly anyone does it.  especially if you're
going to take your favorites team's loss hard, why compound it by losing money
too?  i tend to like (and dis-like) players instead of teams, that leads me to
over-value edges and discount drawbacks when i see them.  this is the only rule
i haven't broken this year, because i just avoid these bets altogether.

-don't bet on player/team emotion.
what?  i know, i know, everyone plays with emotion in the nfl.  you have to, or
you'd never survive.  i'm talking about that extra emotion that comes from all
sorts of different sources, whether it be playing on monday night, or mourning
a fallen teammate (and this is sadly, particularly relevant this week).  again,
some bettors look for exactly this thing, but i can't wager on it.  keeping that
type of extra emotion out of the equation ties in with all the other things i'm
saying and fits my overall philosophy of looking for two teams to deliver an
expected performance on both sides of the ball for a very predictable result.
i routinely pass on mnf (and most of the playoffs) for this reason.  i need
overwhelming reasons to wager on a mnf/playoff game and, to be honest, it's nice
to have a solid week locked up and just enjoy mnf for what it usually is, damn
good football.

so, i've broken almost every one of these rules this year and it's only week two.
the good news is 3-5 is hardly a hole and should be easy to get out of.

***my sympathy goes out to family, friends, and teammates of Kenny McKinley.***

...all that said, against my better judgement.

week 3 picks:

titans (1-1) @ giants (1-1)
seriously?  after reading all that, you expected something here?  the only two
things that i hope happen in this game is that the titans don't suck and that the
giants don't suck.  i hope young rebounds too.  i like that kid.

i am liking under 43.5 as they are both run heavy teams, i just can't bring myself
to take it, as both defenses are doing poorly against the run statistically.
ADDENDUM: under 43.5
DISCLAIMER: after that long spiel on my rules for wagering, i'm already breaking
them for this game.  i have a weakness, and it's aggression.  my bankroll can handle
a few high-variance plays, so buyer beware (maybe i should've rambled on about
discipline instead...).

bills (0-2) @ patriots (1-1)
the patriots should light up the bills through the air.  i'm not sure if the bills
are going to do anything at all.

patriots -14.  i like over 42.5, but i can't take it for the same reason i shouldn't
of taken it in the bills/packers game last week.

browns (0-2) @ ravens (1-1)
if i was a bear, i'd learn to talk, just so i could hang out with ray lewis.  i'd
also probably be a better quarterback than joe flacco despite not having opposable
thumbs.  i don't see how this is anything other than a crushing defeat of the browns,
but for the ravens that may mean winning 10-3.

ravens -10.5 is waaay to rich for my blood, going with under 37.  even if flacco has
one of his inconsistently good days, it shouldn't be enough to push this game over.

steelers (2-0) @ bucs (2-0)
the steelers defense is against a tampa bay offense that i don't think is as steady
as advertised.  i'll give the bucs (and their 2-0 record) that maybe they're not as
inept as in the past, but they're not coming away from this 3-0.  batch, while not a
star, certainly shouldn't screw this game up.

steelers -2.5.  the total being 33.5 sticks out like a sore thumb, but i'd take the
under if you forced me to choose.

bengals (1-1) @ panthers (0-2)
if the bengals decide not to suck, this will be ugly for carolina.  if they do suck,
then it will just be old-fashion ugly.  probably a blowout, over too if bengals decide
to ever play offense.

bengals -3.5 just cause their defense has to show up.  not trusting both offenses for
over 38 total in what should be an easy number for just cincinnati to do against the
panthers defense.
DISCLAIMER: after that long spiel on my rules for wagering, i'm already breaking
them for this game.  i have a weakness, and it's aggression.  my bankroll can handle
a few high-variance plays, so buyer beware (maybe i should've rambled on about
discipline instead...).

falcons (1-1) @ saints (2-0)
the saints can gut out wins, fine.  other than that there are way too many question
marks for me in this game.  sure the saints are going to go off for 40 points?  when?
at home in a division match-up?  sure the falcons can put up 41 against the cardinals
in atlanta, what can they do on the road against a much better team?  i could go on
with 20 more, i'll just cut it off here and say this is the early game i'm most
likely to watch and no way i'm wagering on.

force me to make a pick and, in spite of their short week, the saints could dig in at
home and cover -4.

49ers (0-2) @ chiefs (2-0)
even though the short week and road trip make me slightly wary of this one, the niners
moved the ball much better than i expected against the saints (even though the saints
are not known their defense).  if alex smith and the rest of the san francisco offense
gained confidence from monday night, they should feel good about moving the ball
against a weak pass defense.  add to that a fired-up, 0-2, mike singletary defense and
this could be a very bad day for kansas city.

49ers -2.5.  i honestly have know idea what to make of a 37 total with these two teams.

lions (0-2) @ vikings (0-2)
brett favre is playing almost as bad as brad childress is coaching right now.  brett,
though not in his prime, is still a good (if not great) qb and childress is still one
of the best coaches, but both are just awful at the moment.  i am not going to go on
about missed check-downs or botched coaching calls etc etc etc, i'll just talk about
how their defense has been stellar in spite of the lack of (ok, non-existent) support
they are getting from the offense.  that being said, if there was ever a time to get
back on track, it'd be week 3, at home, against a division opponent, also one of the
worst teams in the league, without their starting qb.  shaun hill and the detroit
offense, who looked very decent against the eagles last week, should get crushed and i
can even see minnesota's offense finally getting in on the action.

minnesota -11.5 is cutting the meat to close to the bone to take, as is under 42.5 in
case the vikings offense really gets rolling.

cowboys (0-2) @ texans (2-0)
the texans are this year's 2009 green bay packers.  meaning that they may, more than
likely, make the playoffs (and they will sure look good offensively almost every game
doing it), but they are not quite an elite-status team yet.  on the other side of the
ball is a very talented, if overrated and underwhelming, dallas team that is 0-2 and
should be hungry for a win.

i can't back texans -3 because of their horrible defense (and dallas' solid one, the
cowboys could win this one), but this should be a shoot-out in spite of the cowboys'
appalling red-zone offense. i like over 47.

redskins (1-1) @ rams (0-2)
washington's aerial defense looks porous after facing dallas (who can move the ball
just fine until it's time to score) and houston.  expect no such problems against the
rams' offense even with bradford in and heaven help the rams defense this week if
washington's offense is still in sync (and they should be).  i must confess to not
having watched the rams yet this year (other than highlights, analysis, etc etc), so
this should be the late game that i spend the most time on (unless colts/broncos gets
exciting).

redskins -4.  keep an eye on over 38.5 if the rams score a few.

eagles (1-1) @ jaguars (1-1)
whatever happens in the future, vick is their man right now (and should be).  both
teams have average to good offenses and average to bad defenses, so this should be a
score-fest.  turnovers could ruin (or jump-start) a good day for either team, and the
storyline for the naysayers is if/when the wheels fall off the vickmobile (they will
continue to be disappointed for at least one more week).

can't quite take eagles -2.5, the over at 44.5 looks appealing.

colts (1-1) @ broncos (1-1)
best game by default sunday afternoon.  best game of the day if it stays close.  if
both teams go into ball-control mode, it could be a very low-scoring affair.

under 48 is pretty, if this game doesn't get cracked wide open.  too many variables
and too much emotion for me to wanna touch this game.
ADDENDUM: couldn't pass on under 48.
DISCLAIMER: after that long spiel on my rules for wagering, i'm already breaking
them for this game.  i have a weakness, and it's aggression.  my bankroll can handle
a few high-variance plays, so buyer beware (maybe i should've rambled on about
discipline instead...).

chargers (1-1) @ seahawks (1-1)
both teams are trying to find a groove.  san diego has got the better team, but it's
not impossible for seattle to find inspiration at home.  i'll be watching another
game anyway.

raiders (1-1) @ cardinals (1-1)
have i designated the ass-less rat game of the week yet?  no?  it's this one.

jets (1-1) @ dolphins (2-0)
well if the colts/broncos game is lame, i won't be disappointed for long.  there's
no way that this game isn't marvelous.  the only game that could be better is...

packers (2-0) @ bears (2-0)
this should be a hell of a mnf game.  green bay makes the most of every opportunity
to score and cutler is playing like he doesn't suck.  both defenses are solid, but
that shouldn't matter as either teams can go lights-out on offense.  i am not sold on
this being a new jay in chicago, but i don't think he screws it up yet.

over 46.
DISCLAIMER: after that long spiel on my rules for wagering, i'm already breaking
them for this game.  i have a weakness, and it's aggression.  my bankroll can handle
a few high-variance plays, so buyer beware (maybe i should've rambled on about
discipline instead...).

good luck
-ixorv-

titans @ giants
i am liking under 43.5 as they are both run heavy teams, i just can't bring myself
to take it, as both defenses are doing poorly against the run statistically.
ADDENDUM: under 43.5.
>>>>>one of my weaker picks that came through.  the story here is the titans got it
done on the ground, and eli had a romo-esque day passing (great numbers until you
get to td/int).

bills @ patriots
patriots -14.  i like over 42.5, but i can't take it for the same reason i shouldn't
of taken it in the bills/packers game last week.
>>>>>great pick, until the bills decided to do something.  the story here is because
buffalo played offense, it killed my side and made the total.

browns @ ravens
ravens -10.5 is waaay to rich for my blood, going with under 37.  even if flacco has
one of his inconsistently good days, it shouldn't be enough to push this game over.
>>>>>i still love this pick.  the story here is how the hell do the ravens give up
173 yards rushing and 17 points to the browns?

steelers @ bucs
steelers -2.5.  the total being 33.5 sticks out like a sore thumb, but i'd take the
under if you forced me to choose.
>>>>>steelers blow-out.  the story here is the steelers came up big on the ground and
on defense like they should have (don't be fooled by batch's 3 aerial tds).

bengals @ panthers
bengals -3.5 just cause their defense has to show up.  not trusting both offenses for
over 38 total in what should be an easy number for just cincinnati to do against the
panthers defense.
>>>>>another one of my weaker plays that came through.  the story here is exactly
what a thought it was, a good team plays bad against a bad team that plays bad.

falcons @ saints
force me to make a pick and, in spite of their short week, the saints could dig in at
home and cover -4.
>>>>>could, but didn't.  the story here is atlanta's ground game and saint's turnovers
(not the missed fg, though the saints should be worried).

49ers @ chiefs
49ers -2.5.  i honestly have know idea what to make of a 37 total with these two teams.
>>>>>check that - i honestly don't know what to make of these two teams[period].  the
story here is arrowhead is rough, niners are (mnf aside) overrated, and chiefs may be
for real.

lions @ vikings
minnesota -11.5 is cutting the meat to close to the bone to take, as is under 42.5 in
case the vikings offense really gets rolling.
>>>>>both those hit, but i don't mind missing them.  the story here is that minnesota's
defense and ground game are (and have been all 3 weeks - not ap's fault he only got 19
carries, and a bunch of farve-missed checkdowns, in week 1) solid.

cowboys @ texans
i can't back texans -3 because of their horrible defense (and dallas' solid one, the
cowboys could win this one), but this should be a shoot-out in spite of the cowboys'
appalling red-zone offense. i like over 47.
>>>>>cowboys did win, where the hell was houston's offense.  the story here is that the
texans didn't play their best football (and turned the ball over too), but the cowboys
did (and didn't).

redskins @ rams
redskins -4.  keep an eye on over 38.5 if the rams score a few.
>>>>>washington's aerial defense looks porous[period].  The story here (for both teams)
is what happens next week.

eagles @ jaguars
can't quite take eagles -2.5, the over at 44.5 looks appealing.
>>>>>got one little thing wrong and it cost me two bets (one pass i should've won and
one loss i should've passed).  the story here is how long does vick keep rolling (and
an afterthought, even at home, how the hell did the jags score 24 points on denver?).

colts @ broncos
under 48 is pretty, if this game doesn't get cracked wide open.  too many variables
and too much emotion for me to wanna touch this game.
ADDENDUM: couldn't pass on under 48.
>>>>>3-0 (with over 46 on mnf pending) on wagers "ishouldntofbutididanyway".  the
story here is that i won 3 bets on this game, this wager, over 17.5 for the 2nd half
(giving me a nice 14.5 point middle for the game total), and the colts +.5 for the 2nd
half.

chargers @ seahawks
both teams are trying to find a groove.  san diego has got the better team, but it's
not impossible for seattle to find inspiration at home.
>>>>>they did.  the story here is next week.  the chargers host the cardinals and the
seahawks travel to the rams.

raiders @ cardinals
have i designated the ass-less rat game of the week yet?  no?  it's this one.
>>>>>23-24 cardinals.  there was no story here, unless you are a raiders or cards fan.

jets @ dolphins
well if the colts/broncos game is lame, i won't be disappointed for long.  there's
no way that this game isn't marvelous.
>>>>>it was.