Much like the Niners last week I get the feeling this will be a popular dog on the board this week, but I also feel just like the Niners the Cowboys will be clearly the right side.
Much like the Niners last week I get the feeling this will be a popular dog on the board this week, but I also feel just like the Niners the Cowboys will be clearly the right side.
I was looking at the Cowboys too. Houston's defense has been atrocious, and I can't see Dallas not putting up a load of points. I know we called letdown for Houston last week, but after that win against Indy AND that 17 point 4th quarter comeback on the road last week, I can't help but wonder how much motivation Houston will have against a Dallas team looking for blood.
Right now I am trying to decipher which of the these small road favorites I want to make a play on......
SF -2.5. Cincy -3. Pitt -2.5. To play all of these is obviously a foolish proposition, so I'm gonna try to narrow it down to one I think is best.
Right now, I'm leaning hardest towards Pitt. Their defense is filthy, and I don't see Freeman pulling the rabbits out of his hat that he pulled in Carolina. Tampa Bay also got ZERO going on the ground against the Panthers, and if Pitt can do the same using only three and four man fronts, it is gonna be a long day for TB. Fuck it......Just locked up Pitt.
Also, looking hard at Denver +6. There is something about this team I like. They had a major swoon in the second half of last season, but through November they were playing as good ball as anyone in the league. On paper they aren't much, but McDaniels is doing something right with this team and I really dig their style. Last year they battled with Indy and even though they wound up losing(i forget the specifics), I remember they outplayed Indy for a majority of the game and matched up well with them on both sides of the ball.
I was looking at the Cowboys too. Houston's defense has been atrocious, and I can't see Dallas not putting up a load of points. I know we called letdown for Houston last week, but after that win against Indy AND that 17 point 4th quarter comeback on the road last week, I can't help but wonder how much motivation Houston will have against a Dallas team looking for blood.
Right now I am trying to decipher which of the these small road favorites I want to make a play on......
SF -2.5. Cincy -3. Pitt -2.5. To play all of these is obviously a foolish proposition, so I'm gonna try to narrow it down to one I think is best.
Right now, I'm leaning hardest towards Pitt. Their defense is filthy, and I don't see Freeman pulling the rabbits out of his hat that he pulled in Carolina. Tampa Bay also got ZERO going on the ground against the Panthers, and if Pitt can do the same using only three and four man fronts, it is gonna be a long day for TB. Fuck it......Just locked up Pitt.
Also, looking hard at Denver +6. There is something about this team I like. They had a major swoon in the second half of last season, but through November they were playing as good ball as anyone in the league. On paper they aren't much, but McDaniels is doing something right with this team and I really dig their style. Last year they battled with Indy and even though they wound up losing(i forget the specifics), I remember they outplayed Indy for a majority of the game and matched up well with them on both sides of the ball.
I was looking at the Cowboys too. Houston's defense has been atrocious, and I can't see Dallas not putting up a load of points. I know we called letdown for Houston last week, but after that win against Indy AND that 17 point 4th quarter comeback on the road last week, I can't help but wonder how much motivation Houston will have against a Dallas team looking for blood.
Right now I am trying to decipher which of the these small road favorites I want to make a play on......
SF -2.5. Cincy -3. Pitt -2.5. To play all of these is obviously a foolish proposition, so I'm gonna try to narrow it down to one I think is best.
Right now, I'm leaning hardest towards Pitt. Their defense is filthy, and I don't see Freeman pulling the rabbits out of his hat that he pulled in Carolina. Tampa Bay also got ZERO going on the ground against the Panthers, and if Pitt can do the same using only three and four man fronts, it is gonna be a long day for TB. Fuck it......Just locked up Pitt.
Also, looking hard at Denver +6. There is something about this team I like. They had a major swoon in the second half of last season, but through November they were playing as good ball as anyone in the league. On paper they aren't much, but McDaniels is doing something right with this team and I really dig their style. Last year they battled with Indy and even though they wound up losing(i forget the specifics), I remember they outplayed Indy for a majority of the game and matched up well with them on both sides of the ball.
Houston will be more than motivated to bury their hated in-state rivals. And Dallas is not a normal team that is desperate and motivated. They seem to be in disarray and down on each other. We'll see. That place will be going bonkers - more so than the Indy game.
I liked Denver too, but just read that Champ Bailey is questionable. Peyton is well aware of that already. We'll see. +6 is juicy. +7 would do the trick.
I was looking at the Cowboys too. Houston's defense has been atrocious, and I can't see Dallas not putting up a load of points. I know we called letdown for Houston last week, but after that win against Indy AND that 17 point 4th quarter comeback on the road last week, I can't help but wonder how much motivation Houston will have against a Dallas team looking for blood.
Right now I am trying to decipher which of the these small road favorites I want to make a play on......
SF -2.5. Cincy -3. Pitt -2.5. To play all of these is obviously a foolish proposition, so I'm gonna try to narrow it down to one I think is best.
Right now, I'm leaning hardest towards Pitt. Their defense is filthy, and I don't see Freeman pulling the rabbits out of his hat that he pulled in Carolina. Tampa Bay also got ZERO going on the ground against the Panthers, and if Pitt can do the same using only three and four man fronts, it is gonna be a long day for TB. Fuck it......Just locked up Pitt.
Also, looking hard at Denver +6. There is something about this team I like. They had a major swoon in the second half of last season, but through November they were playing as good ball as anyone in the league. On paper they aren't much, but McDaniels is doing something right with this team and I really dig their style. Last year they battled with Indy and even though they wound up losing(i forget the specifics), I remember they outplayed Indy for a majority of the game and matched up well with them on both sides of the ball.
Houston will be more than motivated to bury their hated in-state rivals. And Dallas is not a normal team that is desperate and motivated. They seem to be in disarray and down on each other. We'll see. That place will be going bonkers - more so than the Indy game.
I liked Denver too, but just read that Champ Bailey is questionable. Peyton is well aware of that already. We'll see. +6 is juicy. +7 would do the trick.
Houston will be more than motivated to bury their hated in-state rivals. And Dallas is not a normal team that is desperate and motivated. They seem to be in disarray and down on each other. We'll see. That place will be going bonkers - more so than the Indy game.
I liked Denver too, but just read that Champ Bailey is questionable. Peyton is well aware of that already. We'll see. +6 is juicy. +7 would do the trick.
With you on Pitt. TB has been double lucky.
GL
Shit, I didn't realize Champ was banged up.
How well do you think Dallas is gonna travel? Do you think it is possible that 25% of the crowd is pro-Cowboys?
Houston will be more than motivated to bury their hated in-state rivals. And Dallas is not a normal team that is desperate and motivated. They seem to be in disarray and down on each other. We'll see. That place will be going bonkers - more so than the Indy game.
I liked Denver too, but just read that Champ Bailey is questionable. Peyton is well aware of that already. We'll see. +6 is juicy. +7 would do the trick.
With you on Pitt. TB has been double lucky.
GL
Shit, I didn't realize Champ was banged up.
How well do you think Dallas is gonna travel? Do you think it is possible that 25% of the crowd is pro-Cowboys?
I was looking at the Cowboys too. Houston's defense has been atrocious, and I can't see Dallas not putting up a load of points. I know we called letdown for Houston last week, but after that win against Indy AND that 17 point 4th quarter comeback on the road last week, I can't help but wonder how much motivation Houston will have against a Dallas team looking for blood.
Right now I am trying to decipher which of the these small road favorites I want to make a play on......
SF -2.5. Cincy -3. Pitt -2.5. To play all of these is obviously a foolish proposition, so I'm gonna try to narrow it down to one I think is best.
Right now, I'm leaning hardest towards Pitt. Their defense is filthy, and I don't see Freeman pulling the rabbits out of his hat that he pulled in Carolina. Tampa Bay also got ZERO going on the ground against the Panthers, and if Pitt can do the same using only three and four man fronts, it is gonna be a long day for TB. Fuck it......Just locked up Pitt.
Also, looking hard at Denver +6. There is something about this team I like. They had a major swoon in the second half of last season, but through November they were playing as good ball as anyone in the league. On paper they aren't much, but McDaniels is doing something right with this team and I really dig their style. Last year they battled with Indy and even though they wound up losing(i forget the specifics), I remember they outplayed Indy for a majority of the game and matched up well with them on both sides of the ball.
It is do or die time for the Cowboys this week. Their backs are truly against the wall and I expect them to come out like a bunch of rabid dogs. They have a bye after this week too so I'm sure they will leave it all on the field to avoid living through 2 weeks of the hell they would endure at 0-3.
Despite their records I still think Dallas is the better team. Look at the Cowboys' first two games: They are +16 in 1st downs, +234 yards, +15.20 minutes in TOP and have a huge advantage in the critical 3rd down department yet they are 0-2, why? Because they are -4 in turnovers and -11 in total penalties with some of them coming at killer times. They have simply beaten themselves through the 1st two games. Once these guys put it together they will be fine. And what better opportunity to buckle up, focus, and put it together than in what is a must win game? I think the Boys bring it here.
Conversely, I don't like the spot for Houston. #1 Their defense sucks. Week 1 they give up oodles of yards to Manning, well ok the Colts were trying to get back in it. But then last week your secondary gets shredded again? By Donovan McNabb?? Houston gave up 7 pass plays of over 20 yards last week, that is pathetic. This secondary is horrible and IMO Dallas will move it. I'm not big on comparing performances from one week to the next because situations changed but look at what Washington's offense did against the Dallas D and what they did against the Texans.
#2 I agree with you here glyde, I think Houston will be gassed after two emotional wins. Asking them to put it together 3 weeks in a row is tough. They basically played a full extra quarter last week. Look at what Schuab said after the game while talking to Peter King: "Excuse me if I fall asleep, I'm pretty tired".
#3 Houston's LT was suspended. Link. So often teams will lose a skill position player and a big deal will be made of it but the backup will come in and play fine, but more often than not when OL go down there is a long period of adjustment. It will be fun to watch a backup OL try to block DeMarcus Ware. They are going to have to send a RB or TE over there to help, taking away another Houston weapon.
I was looking at the Cowboys too. Houston's defense has been atrocious, and I can't see Dallas not putting up a load of points. I know we called letdown for Houston last week, but after that win against Indy AND that 17 point 4th quarter comeback on the road last week, I can't help but wonder how much motivation Houston will have against a Dallas team looking for blood.
Right now I am trying to decipher which of the these small road favorites I want to make a play on......
SF -2.5. Cincy -3. Pitt -2.5. To play all of these is obviously a foolish proposition, so I'm gonna try to narrow it down to one I think is best.
Right now, I'm leaning hardest towards Pitt. Their defense is filthy, and I don't see Freeman pulling the rabbits out of his hat that he pulled in Carolina. Tampa Bay also got ZERO going on the ground against the Panthers, and if Pitt can do the same using only three and four man fronts, it is gonna be a long day for TB. Fuck it......Just locked up Pitt.
Also, looking hard at Denver +6. There is something about this team I like. They had a major swoon in the second half of last season, but through November they were playing as good ball as anyone in the league. On paper they aren't much, but McDaniels is doing something right with this team and I really dig their style. Last year they battled with Indy and even though they wound up losing(i forget the specifics), I remember they outplayed Indy for a majority of the game and matched up well with them on both sides of the ball.
It is do or die time for the Cowboys this week. Their backs are truly against the wall and I expect them to come out like a bunch of rabid dogs. They have a bye after this week too so I'm sure they will leave it all on the field to avoid living through 2 weeks of the hell they would endure at 0-3.
Despite their records I still think Dallas is the better team. Look at the Cowboys' first two games: They are +16 in 1st downs, +234 yards, +15.20 minutes in TOP and have a huge advantage in the critical 3rd down department yet they are 0-2, why? Because they are -4 in turnovers and -11 in total penalties with some of them coming at killer times. They have simply beaten themselves through the 1st two games. Once these guys put it together they will be fine. And what better opportunity to buckle up, focus, and put it together than in what is a must win game? I think the Boys bring it here.
Conversely, I don't like the spot for Houston. #1 Their defense sucks. Week 1 they give up oodles of yards to Manning, well ok the Colts were trying to get back in it. But then last week your secondary gets shredded again? By Donovan McNabb?? Houston gave up 7 pass plays of over 20 yards last week, that is pathetic. This secondary is horrible and IMO Dallas will move it. I'm not big on comparing performances from one week to the next because situations changed but look at what Washington's offense did against the Dallas D and what they did against the Texans.
#2 I agree with you here glyde, I think Houston will be gassed after two emotional wins. Asking them to put it together 3 weeks in a row is tough. They basically played a full extra quarter last week. Look at what Schuab said after the game while talking to Peter King: "Excuse me if I fall asleep, I'm pretty tired".
#3 Houston's LT was suspended. Link. So often teams will lose a skill position player and a big deal will be made of it but the backup will come in and play fine, but more often than not when OL go down there is a long period of adjustment. It will be fun to watch a backup OL try to block DeMarcus Ware. They are going to have to send a RB or TE over there to help, taking away another Houston weapon.
That struck me because the last time I heard a QB say that right after a game was Kurt Warner after that 51-45 game in the playoffs last year. Arizona was as flat as a pancake the next week.
That struck me because the last time I heard a QB say that right after a game was Kurt Warner after that 51-45 game in the playoffs last year. Arizona was as flat as a pancake the next week.
I was looking at the Cowboys too. Houston's defense has been atrocious, and I can't see Dallas not putting up a load of points. I know we called letdown for Houston last week, but after that win against Indy AND that 17 point 4th quarter comeback on the road last week, I can't help but wonder how much motivation Houston will have against a Dallas team looking for blood.
Right now I am trying to decipher which of the these small road favorites I want to make a play on......
SF -2.5. Cincy -3. Pitt -2.5. To play all of these is obviously a foolish proposition, so I'm gonna try to narrow it down to one I think is best.
Right now, I'm leaning hardest towards Pitt. Their defense is filthy, and I don't see Freeman pulling the rabbits out of his hat that he pulled in Carolina. Tampa Bay also got ZERO going on the ground against the Panthers, and if Pitt can do the same using only three and four man fronts, it is gonna be a long day for TB. Fuck it......Just locked up Pitt.
Also, looking hard at Denver +6. There is something about this team I like. They had a major swoon in the second half of last season, but through November they were playing as good ball as anyone in the league. On paper they aren't much, but McDaniels is doing something right with this team and I really dig their style. Last year they battled with Indy and even though they wound up losing(i forget the specifics), I remember they outplayed Indy for a majority of the game and matched up well with them on both sides of the ball.
I was kinda looking at Carolina and Tampa.
On paper there is no possible way the Panthers compete with the Bengals but there is something about this spot that is just calling to me. Cincy off a really hard hitting, hard fought win over their division rivals as a home dog and now find themselves road favs against a loser team who just lost at home by DD's to the Bucs and are throwing a rookie QB out there for his first career start?
I'd like this play more if Cincy had a bad defense. This line looked like it was going to go to 3.5 but there was a big buy on Carolina this afternoon pushing it back to 3 normal juice, which kinda sucks. Or does it?
Not sure there is a big enough price for me to play Tampa here although I like the spot. I think I posted last week I may fade Pittsburgh if they won last week. Pittsburgh had to grind for two games against better teams and that's what they did. Now they suddenly find themselves 2-0 with a soft team this week (although Tampa is 2-0 I'm sure Pittsburgh isn't treating them like the Falcons and Titans) and face a home game against Baltimore next week. Pittsburgh's defense is insanely good but will they be able to bring it for a 2nd road game in a row in scorching heat yet again? Not sure. This is screaming letdown but the line is so damn cheap.
I was looking at the Cowboys too. Houston's defense has been atrocious, and I can't see Dallas not putting up a load of points. I know we called letdown for Houston last week, but after that win against Indy AND that 17 point 4th quarter comeback on the road last week, I can't help but wonder how much motivation Houston will have against a Dallas team looking for blood.
Right now I am trying to decipher which of the these small road favorites I want to make a play on......
SF -2.5. Cincy -3. Pitt -2.5. To play all of these is obviously a foolish proposition, so I'm gonna try to narrow it down to one I think is best.
Right now, I'm leaning hardest towards Pitt. Their defense is filthy, and I don't see Freeman pulling the rabbits out of his hat that he pulled in Carolina. Tampa Bay also got ZERO going on the ground against the Panthers, and if Pitt can do the same using only three and four man fronts, it is gonna be a long day for TB. Fuck it......Just locked up Pitt.
Also, looking hard at Denver +6. There is something about this team I like. They had a major swoon in the second half of last season, but through November they were playing as good ball as anyone in the league. On paper they aren't much, but McDaniels is doing something right with this team and I really dig their style. Last year they battled with Indy and even though they wound up losing(i forget the specifics), I remember they outplayed Indy for a majority of the game and matched up well with them on both sides of the ball.
I was kinda looking at Carolina and Tampa.
On paper there is no possible way the Panthers compete with the Bengals but there is something about this spot that is just calling to me. Cincy off a really hard hitting, hard fought win over their division rivals as a home dog and now find themselves road favs against a loser team who just lost at home by DD's to the Bucs and are throwing a rookie QB out there for his first career start?
I'd like this play more if Cincy had a bad defense. This line looked like it was going to go to 3.5 but there was a big buy on Carolina this afternoon pushing it back to 3 normal juice, which kinda sucks. Or does it?
Not sure there is a big enough price for me to play Tampa here although I like the spot. I think I posted last week I may fade Pittsburgh if they won last week. Pittsburgh had to grind for two games against better teams and that's what they did. Now they suddenly find themselves 2-0 with a soft team this week (although Tampa is 2-0 I'm sure Pittsburgh isn't treating them like the Falcons and Titans) and face a home game against Baltimore next week. Pittsburgh's defense is insanely good but will they be able to bring it for a 2nd road game in a row in scorching heat yet again? Not sure. This is screaming letdown but the line is so damn cheap.
Glyde - What do you think of your Bears this week?
I'm loving the Bears. We talked about their defense in the preseason and I like what I see so far. Dallas got a lot of yards in between the 20s, but Chicago always buckled down when it counted. Whether that is good D, or a rusty Dallas O is still to be seen though. They haven't had much to show for it, but the Bears brought reasonable pressure in both games and the secondary has looked pretty good.
Maybe it's me but Rodgers has looked a little rusty. The Bills who haven't had a pass rush in years got to Rodgers and forced him into some bad throws. Another thing people don't realize is while the final was like 34-7, that was a 13-7 game in the 3rd quarter and Buffalo was playing scrappy. A few turnovers and quick TD's made things look a little worse than they were. Green Bay looked horrible in the run game and did nothing against a pretty weak Buffalo defensive line. Jackson and Kuhn had to fight for every single yard they got(and they didn't get many). I think the Bears can shut them down and make them one dimensional, and that forces the Pack to play to their strength.
MNF should give Chicago a considerable home field advantage, and I'm hoping they aren't gonna come into the game with too much swagger after beating the Cowboys. IIRC, the Bears played GB tough both times last year and kept Rodgers completely in check. Chicago's D plays the same schemes, and getting healthy can only bring improvement.
Chicago's offense has been money so far. There were some questions in the preseason when they didn't look completely in sync, and that O-line is a weakness(think I saw Williams limp off last week as well), but so far they have looked pretty good. Martz has made all the difference with Cutler and he is making incredible throws. I now see why Bear fans were so excited when they went out and got him. I've been kinda lukewarm on him, but last week I saw him make two specific throws that I don't think three other QB's in the league could have made. Even Greg Olson got involved and I'm pretty sure Martz isn't big on using TE's. He surely is a weapon if you use him right.
Finally, I've been saying GB's defense(and team on a whole is overrated) and I think we see it here. I would like the Bears to strike early and often and not let the game turn into a shootout.
Bears are definitely on my short list......Locked up Pitt -2.5 and Denver +5.5 earlier today. Wish I waited a bit for Pitt as you made some good points about them playing some real physical games and then going back down into the heat. Definite chance of looking forward to Balt next week and the prospect of a bye and getting Roethlisberger back for Week 6. I'm just gonna bank on that defense pummeling TB and especially not letting Freeman make any plays with his legs. He KILLED the Panthers running around last week. Big guy can definitely move.
Glyde - What do you think of your Bears this week?
I'm loving the Bears. We talked about their defense in the preseason and I like what I see so far. Dallas got a lot of yards in between the 20s, but Chicago always buckled down when it counted. Whether that is good D, or a rusty Dallas O is still to be seen though. They haven't had much to show for it, but the Bears brought reasonable pressure in both games and the secondary has looked pretty good.
Maybe it's me but Rodgers has looked a little rusty. The Bills who haven't had a pass rush in years got to Rodgers and forced him into some bad throws. Another thing people don't realize is while the final was like 34-7, that was a 13-7 game in the 3rd quarter and Buffalo was playing scrappy. A few turnovers and quick TD's made things look a little worse than they were. Green Bay looked horrible in the run game and did nothing against a pretty weak Buffalo defensive line. Jackson and Kuhn had to fight for every single yard they got(and they didn't get many). I think the Bears can shut them down and make them one dimensional, and that forces the Pack to play to their strength.
MNF should give Chicago a considerable home field advantage, and I'm hoping they aren't gonna come into the game with too much swagger after beating the Cowboys. IIRC, the Bears played GB tough both times last year and kept Rodgers completely in check. Chicago's D plays the same schemes, and getting healthy can only bring improvement.
Chicago's offense has been money so far. There were some questions in the preseason when they didn't look completely in sync, and that O-line is a weakness(think I saw Williams limp off last week as well), but so far they have looked pretty good. Martz has made all the difference with Cutler and he is making incredible throws. I now see why Bear fans were so excited when they went out and got him. I've been kinda lukewarm on him, but last week I saw him make two specific throws that I don't think three other QB's in the league could have made. Even Greg Olson got involved and I'm pretty sure Martz isn't big on using TE's. He surely is a weapon if you use him right.
Finally, I've been saying GB's defense(and team on a whole is overrated) and I think we see it here. I would like the Bears to strike early and often and not let the game turn into a shootout.
Bears are definitely on my short list......Locked up Pitt -2.5 and Denver +5.5 earlier today. Wish I waited a bit for Pitt as you made some good points about them playing some real physical games and then going back down into the heat. Definite chance of looking forward to Balt next week and the prospect of a bye and getting Roethlisberger back for Week 6. I'm just gonna bank on that defense pummeling TB and especially not letting Freeman make any plays with his legs. He KILLED the Panthers running around last week. Big guy can definitely move.
Baltimore - whatever (holding out for a 10 but 10.5 will do)
Throughout the course of the season I am going to look to fade teams in Baltimore's spot. That is, teams off of tough emotional games now facing a cupcake with another tough game on deck. And that is exactly the spot Baltimore is in this week. They played two hard hitting tight road games against the Jets and Bengals, now they play the 0-2 Browns who are Baltimore's bitch, and Balty has another tough road game next week @ Pittsburgh. All that being said I don't think this is a flat spot at all for Baltimore, in fact I think it's a play on. Why? For two reasons: #1 This team is struggling and really need to get their offense going. #2 They have been in this spot before and have rolled.
#1 Coming into the year Baltimore was touting their shiny new offense that was finally going to push them from "really good team just missing something" to "serious contender". But their offense has sputtered through the first two games (although they did play two tough defenses) managing just a total of 20 points. This is a great opportunity to work on basically everything on offense against a soft Browns defense before the schedule toughens up again. I expect a very balanced attack here (they threw it almost 40 times last week and Ray Rice ran it just 16 times) with Ray Rice getting a lot of touches and Flacco working off play action and getting it to his new receivers down the field ironing out some kinks in the passing game. Flacco was horrible last week throwing 4 picks but in his short career he has rebounded off of bad mistake filled showings rather impressively. So far in his career after throwing 2 or more picks in a game the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the next game with Flacco having great QB ratings of 109.2, 98.1, 120.8, 81.7, 120.2, 57.0, 95.5, and 96.9. The 57.0 sticks out but that performance came in just his second career road game @ Indy in which the Ravens got blitzed 31-3 (also the only non-cover). The Browns at home are no Indy. Flacco plays well this week and Ravens fans take their finger off the panic button. The Ravens may even try to run it up if they get the chance just to work on the offense in a live game setting.
#2 Since Harbaugh became the head coach and Flacco the QB before the 2008 season, the Ravens have just CRUSHED bad teams at home. Since 2008 Baltimore is 10-0 ATS at home against teams .500 or worse (the season is only 2 weeks old but Cleveland will be a losing team) winning by the following margins: 7, 18, 19, 14, 20, 14, 31, 23, 45, and 24 for an average margin of victory of 21.5 points per game. Instead of letting up against bad teams, this squad simply starts licking their lips when they see a weakling coming to town and come out and feast. Also, 5 of those 10 games came in potential look ahead spots where in the following game Baltimore would be a road dog but all they've done is go 5-0 winning by 18, 19, 14, 31 and 24.
Who cares who the QB is for Cleveland this week, the Browns will be facing the full wrath of a pissed off Ravens team in their home opener who unlike so many teams that take weeks off against cupcakes, the Ravens will be licking their chops. Baltimore by at least 2 touchdowns.
Baltimore - whatever (holding out for a 10 but 10.5 will do)
Throughout the course of the season I am going to look to fade teams in Baltimore's spot. That is, teams off of tough emotional games now facing a cupcake with another tough game on deck. And that is exactly the spot Baltimore is in this week. They played two hard hitting tight road games against the Jets and Bengals, now they play the 0-2 Browns who are Baltimore's bitch, and Balty has another tough road game next week @ Pittsburgh. All that being said I don't think this is a flat spot at all for Baltimore, in fact I think it's a play on. Why? For two reasons: #1 This team is struggling and really need to get their offense going. #2 They have been in this spot before and have rolled.
#1 Coming into the year Baltimore was touting their shiny new offense that was finally going to push them from "really good team just missing something" to "serious contender". But their offense has sputtered through the first two games (although they did play two tough defenses) managing just a total of 20 points. This is a great opportunity to work on basically everything on offense against a soft Browns defense before the schedule toughens up again. I expect a very balanced attack here (they threw it almost 40 times last week and Ray Rice ran it just 16 times) with Ray Rice getting a lot of touches and Flacco working off play action and getting it to his new receivers down the field ironing out some kinks in the passing game. Flacco was horrible last week throwing 4 picks but in his short career he has rebounded off of bad mistake filled showings rather impressively. So far in his career after throwing 2 or more picks in a game the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the next game with Flacco having great QB ratings of 109.2, 98.1, 120.8, 81.7, 120.2, 57.0, 95.5, and 96.9. The 57.0 sticks out but that performance came in just his second career road game @ Indy in which the Ravens got blitzed 31-3 (also the only non-cover). The Browns at home are no Indy. Flacco plays well this week and Ravens fans take their finger off the panic button. The Ravens may even try to run it up if they get the chance just to work on the offense in a live game setting.
#2 Since Harbaugh became the head coach and Flacco the QB before the 2008 season, the Ravens have just CRUSHED bad teams at home. Since 2008 Baltimore is 10-0 ATS at home against teams .500 or worse (the season is only 2 weeks old but Cleveland will be a losing team) winning by the following margins: 7, 18, 19, 14, 20, 14, 31, 23, 45, and 24 for an average margin of victory of 21.5 points per game. Instead of letting up against bad teams, this squad simply starts licking their lips when they see a weakling coming to town and come out and feast. Also, 5 of those 10 games came in potential look ahead spots where in the following game Baltimore would be a road dog but all they've done is go 5-0 winning by 18, 19, 14, 31 and 24.
Who cares who the QB is for Cleveland this week, the Browns will be facing the full wrath of a pissed off Ravens team in their home opener who unlike so many teams that take weeks off against cupcakes, the Ravens will be licking their chops. Baltimore by at least 2 touchdowns.
I'm loving the Bears. We talked about their defense in the preseason and I like what I see so far. Dallas got a lot of yards in between the 20s, but Chicago always buckled down when it counted. Whether that is good D, or a rusty Dallas O is still to be seen though. They haven't had much to show for it, but the Bears brought reasonable pressure in both games and the secondary has looked pretty good.
Maybe it's me but Rodgers has looked a little rusty. The Bills who haven't had a pass rush in years got to Rodgers and forced him into some bad throws. Another thing people don't realize is while the final was like 34-7, that was a 13-7 game in the 3rd quarter and Buffalo was playing scrappy. A few turnovers and quick TD's made things look a little worse than they were. Green Bay looked horrible in the run game and did nothing against a pretty weak Buffalo defensive line. Jackson and Kuhn had to fight for every single yard they got(and they didn't get many). I think the Bears can shut them down and make them one dimensional, and that forces the Pack to play to their strength.
MNF should give Chicago a considerable home field advantage, and I'm hoping they aren't gonna come into the game with too much swagger after beating the Cowboys. IIRC, the Bears played GB tough both times last year and kept Rodgers completely in check. Chicago's D plays the same schemes, and getting healthy can only bring improvement.
Chicago's offense has been money so far. There were some questions in the preseason when they didn't look completely in sync, and that O-line is a weakness(think I saw Williams limp off last week as well), but so far they have looked pretty good. Martz has made all the difference with Cutler and he is making incredible throws. I now see why Bear fans were so excited when they went out and got him. I've been kinda lukewarm on him, but last week I saw him make two specific throws that I don't think three other QB's in the league could have made. Even Greg Olson got involved and I'm pretty sure Martz isn't big on using TE's. He surely is a weapon if you use him right.
Finally, I've been saying GB's defense(and team on a whole is overrated) and I think we see it here. I would like the Bears to strike early and often and not let the game turn into a shootout.
Bears are definitely on my short list......Locked up Pitt -2.5 and Denver +5.5 earlier today. Wish I waited a bit for Pitt as you made some good points about them playing some real physical games and then going back down into the heat. Definite chance of looking forward to Balt next week and the prospect of a bye and getting Roethlisberger back for Week 6. I'm just gonna bank on that defense pummeling TB and especially not letting Freeman make any plays with his legs. He KILLED the Panthers running around last week. Big guy can definitely move.
Great write up.
I agree 100%. I looked at this line and knew I would be on the Bears without even looking at the match up.
Peppers had made a difference on their D-line, his presence alone makes everyone better. Chicago's front 7 is pretty stout and I think they are going to get some heat on Rodgers and this still shaky Pack 0-line. The Bears o-line has been shaky too but I really they will be quite confident after last week. They were getting killed early against a great pass rush but they adjusted (so did the offense) and played as a unit and had a nice finish. That can only be a confidence booster going forward.
With Minny starting 0-2, the Bears suddenly have a chance to grab 1st place in the division against a Packers team that swept them last year. I think the crowd will be electric further complicating GB's offensive line woes. Gimmie Da Bears.
I'm loving the Bears. We talked about their defense in the preseason and I like what I see so far. Dallas got a lot of yards in between the 20s, but Chicago always buckled down when it counted. Whether that is good D, or a rusty Dallas O is still to be seen though. They haven't had much to show for it, but the Bears brought reasonable pressure in both games and the secondary has looked pretty good.
Maybe it's me but Rodgers has looked a little rusty. The Bills who haven't had a pass rush in years got to Rodgers and forced him into some bad throws. Another thing people don't realize is while the final was like 34-7, that was a 13-7 game in the 3rd quarter and Buffalo was playing scrappy. A few turnovers and quick TD's made things look a little worse than they were. Green Bay looked horrible in the run game and did nothing against a pretty weak Buffalo defensive line. Jackson and Kuhn had to fight for every single yard they got(and they didn't get many). I think the Bears can shut them down and make them one dimensional, and that forces the Pack to play to their strength.
MNF should give Chicago a considerable home field advantage, and I'm hoping they aren't gonna come into the game with too much swagger after beating the Cowboys. IIRC, the Bears played GB tough both times last year and kept Rodgers completely in check. Chicago's D plays the same schemes, and getting healthy can only bring improvement.
Chicago's offense has been money so far. There were some questions in the preseason when they didn't look completely in sync, and that O-line is a weakness(think I saw Williams limp off last week as well), but so far they have looked pretty good. Martz has made all the difference with Cutler and he is making incredible throws. I now see why Bear fans were so excited when they went out and got him. I've been kinda lukewarm on him, but last week I saw him make two specific throws that I don't think three other QB's in the league could have made. Even Greg Olson got involved and I'm pretty sure Martz isn't big on using TE's. He surely is a weapon if you use him right.
Finally, I've been saying GB's defense(and team on a whole is overrated) and I think we see it here. I would like the Bears to strike early and often and not let the game turn into a shootout.
Bears are definitely on my short list......Locked up Pitt -2.5 and Denver +5.5 earlier today. Wish I waited a bit for Pitt as you made some good points about them playing some real physical games and then going back down into the heat. Definite chance of looking forward to Balt next week and the prospect of a bye and getting Roethlisberger back for Week 6. I'm just gonna bank on that defense pummeling TB and especially not letting Freeman make any plays with his legs. He KILLED the Panthers running around last week. Big guy can definitely move.
Great write up.
I agree 100%. I looked at this line and knew I would be on the Bears without even looking at the match up.
Peppers had made a difference on their D-line, his presence alone makes everyone better. Chicago's front 7 is pretty stout and I think they are going to get some heat on Rodgers and this still shaky Pack 0-line. The Bears o-line has been shaky too but I really they will be quite confident after last week. They were getting killed early against a great pass rush but they adjusted (so did the offense) and played as a unit and had a nice finish. That can only be a confidence booster going forward.
With Minny starting 0-2, the Bears suddenly have a chance to grab 1st place in the division against a Packers team that swept them last year. I think the crowd will be electric further complicating GB's offensive line woes. Gimmie Da Bears.
Baltimore - whatever (holding out for a 10 but 10.5 will do)
Throughout the course of the season I am going to look to fade teams in Baltimore's spot. That is, teams off of tough emotional games now facing a cupcake with another tough game on deck. And that is exactly the spot Baltimore is in this week. They played two hard hitting tight road games against the Jets and Bengals, now they play the 0-2 Browns who are Baltimore's bitch, and Balty has another tough road game next week @ Pittsburgh. All that being said I don't think this is a flat spot at all for Baltimore, in fact I think it's a play on. Why? For two reasons: #1 This team is struggling and really need to get their offense going. #2 They have been in this spot before and have rolled.
#1 Coming into the year Baltimore was touting their shiny new offense that was finally going to push them from "really good team just missing something" to "serious contender". But their offense has sputtered through the first two games (although they did play two tough defenses) managing just a total of 20 points. This is a great opportunity to work on basically everything on offense against a soft Browns defense before the schedule toughens up again. I expect a very balanced attack here (they threw it almost 40 times last week and Ray Rice ran it just 16 times) with Ray Rice getting a lot of touches and Flacco working off play action and getting it to his new receivers down the field ironing out some kinks in the passing game. Flacco was horrible last week throwing 4 picks but in his short career he has rebounded off of bad mistake filled showings rather impressively. So far in his career after throwing 2 or more picks in a game the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the next game with Flacco having great QB ratings of 109.2, 98.1, 120.8, 81.7, 120.2, 57.0, 95.5, and 96.9. The 57.0 sticks out but that performance came in just his second career road game @ Indy in which the Ravens got blitzed 31-3 (also the only non-cover). The Browns at home are no Indy. Flacco plays well this week and Ravens fans take their finger off the panic button. The Ravens may even try to run it up if they get the chance just to work on the offense in a live game setting.
#2 Since Harbaugh became the head coach and Flacco the QB before the 2008 season, the Ravens have just CRUSHED bad teams at home. Since 2008 Baltimore is 10-0 ATS at home against teams .500 or worse (the season is only 2 weeks old but Cleveland will be a losing team) winning by the following margins: 7, 18, 19, 14, 20, 14, 31, 23, 45, and 24 for an average margin of victory of 21.5 points per game. Instead of letting up against bad teams, this squad simply starts licking their lips when they see a weakling coming to town and come out and feast. Also, 5 of those 10 games came in potential look ahead spots where in the following game Baltimore would be a road dog but all they've done is go 5-0 winning by 18, 19, 14, 31 and 24.
Who cares who the QB is for Cleveland this week, the Browns will be facing the full wrath of a pissed off Ravens team in their home opener who unlike so many teams that take weeks off against cupcakes, the Ravens will be licking their chops. Baltimore by at least 2 touchdowns.
Good stuff.
I hate laying DD points(although I will at times), and I really hate laying DD points with a team with a struggling offense, but everything you say makes sense.
I don't think I will lay the wood, but I will root you on.
Baltimore - whatever (holding out for a 10 but 10.5 will do)
Throughout the course of the season I am going to look to fade teams in Baltimore's spot. That is, teams off of tough emotional games now facing a cupcake with another tough game on deck. And that is exactly the spot Baltimore is in this week. They played two hard hitting tight road games against the Jets and Bengals, now they play the 0-2 Browns who are Baltimore's bitch, and Balty has another tough road game next week @ Pittsburgh. All that being said I don't think this is a flat spot at all for Baltimore, in fact I think it's a play on. Why? For two reasons: #1 This team is struggling and really need to get their offense going. #2 They have been in this spot before and have rolled.
#1 Coming into the year Baltimore was touting their shiny new offense that was finally going to push them from "really good team just missing something" to "serious contender". But their offense has sputtered through the first two games (although they did play two tough defenses) managing just a total of 20 points. This is a great opportunity to work on basically everything on offense against a soft Browns defense before the schedule toughens up again. I expect a very balanced attack here (they threw it almost 40 times last week and Ray Rice ran it just 16 times) with Ray Rice getting a lot of touches and Flacco working off play action and getting it to his new receivers down the field ironing out some kinks in the passing game. Flacco was horrible last week throwing 4 picks but in his short career he has rebounded off of bad mistake filled showings rather impressively. So far in his career after throwing 2 or more picks in a game the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the next game with Flacco having great QB ratings of 109.2, 98.1, 120.8, 81.7, 120.2, 57.0, 95.5, and 96.9. The 57.0 sticks out but that performance came in just his second career road game @ Indy in which the Ravens got blitzed 31-3 (also the only non-cover). The Browns at home are no Indy. Flacco plays well this week and Ravens fans take their finger off the panic button. The Ravens may even try to run it up if they get the chance just to work on the offense in a live game setting.
#2 Since Harbaugh became the head coach and Flacco the QB before the 2008 season, the Ravens have just CRUSHED bad teams at home. Since 2008 Baltimore is 10-0 ATS at home against teams .500 or worse (the season is only 2 weeks old but Cleveland will be a losing team) winning by the following margins: 7, 18, 19, 14, 20, 14, 31, 23, 45, and 24 for an average margin of victory of 21.5 points per game. Instead of letting up against bad teams, this squad simply starts licking their lips when they see a weakling coming to town and come out and feast. Also, 5 of those 10 games came in potential look ahead spots where in the following game Baltimore would be a road dog but all they've done is go 5-0 winning by 18, 19, 14, 31 and 24.
Who cares who the QB is for Cleveland this week, the Browns will be facing the full wrath of a pissed off Ravens team in their home opener who unlike so many teams that take weeks off against cupcakes, the Ravens will be licking their chops. Baltimore by at least 2 touchdowns.
Good stuff.
I hate laying DD points(although I will at times), and I really hate laying DD points with a team with a struggling offense, but everything you say makes sense.
I don't think I will lay the wood, but I will root you on.
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