Regular Season Win Totals Over - Under

With the regular season kicking off tomorrow night.
Here are my over under team wins for the season.

Team win totals OVER                   Team win totals UNDER

1 Balt Ravens   9 1/2  wins            Ind  Colts         10 1/2 wins
2 Jax  Jaguars  6 1/2  wins            KC   Chiefs        6 1/2 wins
3 SD   Chargers 10 1/2 wins         Buffalo Bills       5 1/2 wins    
4 Tenn Titans    8     wins               Denver Broncos  7     wins
5 Chic Bears    7 1/2  wins            St Louis Rams   4 1/2 wins
6 NY   Giants    9     wins               Carolina Panther s   6 1/2 wins
7 GB   Packers  9 1/2  wins          Dallas Cowboys      10 1/2 wins
8 SF   49ers     9     wins               Tampa  Bucs        6     wins

Last time we posted season win totals was for the 2008 season
plays went 5-3 overall with our over projections 3-1 under projections 2-2. Anyone wanting to confirm this should find the post around the 25th of August, 2008.   

With the Monday Night games still to be played. Gotta say a really sweet way to get things started with three plays pending. Teams that needed to win won and the teams that needed to lose lost for an overall record of 11 winners and 3 losers. Depending on one's line on the Tampa game plays went 10-3-1 ats ( if I did my math right ). Look forward to see how the games go on monday night and looking forward to another strong showing in week two ( I hope ).

Now two weeks into the regular season and our season team win plays are doing well. In the win column thanks goes out to the bears and packers for being 2-0 while the 49ers off a tough loser on monday night need to start scoring some wins. Over in the loser column thanks goes out to the cowboys, rams, panthers and the buffalo bills. While the chiefs and the tampa bay bucs need to stop winning. Hoping for a better performance overall in week three as week two was somewhat of a letdown after a great week one.

Week three has come and gone the season is almost a quarter of the way finish
where does the time go. As the quarter mark approaches lets take a look
at how are season win total play projections are faring with
how each team has to fare the rest of the season to cash that ticket.

In the Over column
===================
       wins needed  minimum record next 13 games
balt      8               8-5      
jax       6               6-7     
chargers 10              10-3     
tenn      7               7-6      
chic      5               5-8      
giants    9               9-4     
packers   8               8-5     
sf 49ers 10              10-3

In the Under column
======================
      no more than X wins next 13 games record not better than ( X )
colts       8                       8-5            
kc chiefs   3                      3-10
buffalo     5                       5-8 
denver      5                       5-8
rams        3                      3-10
carolina    6                       6-7
dallas      9                       9-4
tampa       3                      3-10

After 3 games
teams/plays leaning to the cashier window
1 chic bears
2 tenn titans
3 dallas cowboys
4 carolina panthers

teams/plays leaning to a horrible call
1 san fran 49ers
2 new york giants
3 kc chiefs
4 tampa bay bucs

teams/plays could go either way
1 balt ravens
2 green bay packers
3 denver broncos
4 st louis rams

teams/plays have to
wait and see what the rest of the season brings
1 sd chargers
2 jax jaguars
3 the colts
4 buffalo bills

see everyone next week   

better late than never
at the quarter way mark

teams current record        play             wins needed
these two teams stay on current pace
things will be fine
balt      3-1                   over 9 1/2           7
packers   3-1              over 9 1/2           7

these four teams need a win streak
to feel comfortable
jaguars   2-2                over 6 1/2        5
chargers  2-2              over 10 1/2      9
titans    2-2                  over 8               7
giants    2-2                 over 9               8

as long as last week
isn't an indicator of more things to come
should be an easy victory
the bears 3-1              over 7 1/2           5

this play looks died in the water
however, for mike singletary it may be more of a case
of how much longer will he be standing on the sidelines

my thoughts are
if he doesn't reach at least 8 wins by seasons end
he's out as coach of the niners
sf 49ers  0-4              over 9               10

teams current record        play             loses needed

unfortunately for these three teams
at this point of the season
are making the under look golden

buff bills 0-4                under 5 1/2           7
panthers   0-4             under 6 1/2           6
dallas     1-2               under 10 1/2         4

at this point
these two teams could go either way
colts      2-2                 under 10 1/2      4
broncos    2-2             under 7               8

for the rest of the season
teams needing to reach double digit loses

the rams   2-2             under 4 1/2           10
tampa      2-1             under 6                  10
kc chiefs  3-0             under 6 1/2           10

today marks the navy's 235th birthday
for those who do serve - thank you

for this week
lets take a quick look at how well or poorly
the season team win totals are faring

teams record    wins needed
balt     4-1       6
bears    4-1       4
packers  3-2       7
jaguars  3-2       4
titans   3-2       6
giants   3-2       7
chargers 2-3       9
niners   0-5      10

after week five looks like at least five plays
may/will finish in the winners circle
while two teams the packers and chargers need
to get back to their normal winning ways
and once again the niners continue to find ways to lose games

teams record     loses needed
buffalo  0-5       6
panthers 0-5       5
dallas   1-3       3
colts    3-2       4
broncos  2-3       7
rams     2-3       9
kc chiefs 3-1      9
tampa    3-1      10

after week five looks like at least three plays
may/will finish in the winners circle
while the colts and broncos are projects that are wait and see projects
and two suprising teams the rams and chiefs need to continue
this pass weeks disappointing ways
while tampa bay continues to make losing ten more games difficult

Happy Birthday
U.S. Navy
and
until next week may all your plays be winners

teams record    wins needed  games remaining / minimum record

balt         4-2              6                   10      6-4
giants     4-2              6                   10      6-4
bears      4-2             4                    10      4-6
packers  3-3             7                    10      7-3
chargers 2-4             9                    10      9-1
niners      1-5             9                    10      9-1

pending tonights game
jaguars  3-2              4                    11      4-7
titans      3-2             6                     11      6-5

I am going to go out on a limb and state
with 99.9999 per cent certainty
that either the titans or the jaguars will win the game tonight
although, it would be more helpful if that team is tennessee

after six weeks of football counting on the following teams
to cash the season total ticket
the ravens, giants, and bears

with the following three teams
as teams who have darkened the season forecast clouds
the packers who resemble more of a mash unit than a football team
the chargers who have been a disappointment on the football field
and
the niners
who took six weeks to find out what winning a regular season game was like

with both the titans and jaguars
as teams at this point of the season riding the fence

with these projections
would like to win at least five of these by the end of the season

teams record     loses needed   games remaining / minimum record

dallas    1-4                   2                11       9-2
chiefs    3-2                   8                11       3-8
tampa    3-2                  9                11       2-9
broncos  2-4                 6                10       4-6
colts        4-2                 4                10       6-4
rams        3-3                9                10       1-9
buffalo     0-5                6                11       5-6
panthers  0-5               5                11       6-5

teams counting as likely winners
the cowboys, panthers and buffalo

teams who have darkened clouds on the horizon
the colts, rams, chiefs, and tampa bay

counting the broncos as a team thats riding the fence

with these projections
would like to cash at least four of them by seasons end

so after six weeks of action
looking at a modest 9-7 record overall (56.25 per cent)

until next week may all your plays be winners

after week seven finish

over win total

           current wins            minimum         
           record  needed      record

balt         5-2    5                5-4
jaguars  3-4    4                4-5
chargers 2-5   9               9-0
titans       5-2  4                4-5
bears      4-3  4                4-5
giants     5-2   5               5-4
packers  4-3  6                6-3
niners     1-6   9               9-0

looking for the cashier's window
balt, tenn titans, chic bears and the giants

straddling the fence
jaguars and packers

time to forget this season
chargers and niners

under win total

colts         4-2    4       6-4
chiefs       4-2    8       2-8
buffalo      0-6    5      5-5
broncos    2-5   5       4-5
rams         3-4   8       1-8
panthers   1-5   5      5-5
dallas        1-5  1       9-1
tampa      4-2    9      1-9

looking for the cashiers window
buffalo bills, broncos, dallas cowboys and panthers

straddling the fence
the colts

likely upcoming losers
chiefs, tampa, and the rams

after seven weeks
finish looking like
a possible 10-6 mark or a more likely 9-7 finish

may all your plays be treats 

Happy Halloween !!!!

I just read this and I know the Titans won the game.  Its an interesting note that for RSW totals, ties count the same as losses.  Obviously, its a slight adjustment but you do get one tie every 1000 games or so. 

The odds are only 99.9% that one team would win the game. 

I'm not saying this to be a smartass.  Over the course of handicapping a whole season's RSWs it does make a little difference.

week ten is now in session
below is an update of where the plays stand
since our last post almost two weeks ago

I have to admit feeling good about most of them
if the ball continues to bounce our way
could end up cashing on eleveen of the following sixteen plays

a tough loser with the ravens last night
offense was stagnant for nearly three quarters
than finally found a spark and put up 21 points to take the lead
only to find the defense arguably not up to the task
as they give up a late touchdown to the falcons

teams      current            minimum record in 
                 record             in upcoming games

balt        6-3               need 4 more wins  4-3
chargers    4-5          need 7 more wins  7-0
jax         4-4                need 3 more wins  3-5
tenn        5-3               need 4 more wins  4-4
giants      6-2              need 4 more wins  4-4
bears       5-3              need 3 more wins  3-5
packers     6-3            need 4 more wins  4-3
niners      2-6               need 8 more wins  8-0

                                         
colts       5-3                need 3 more losses 5-3
buffalo     0-8               need 3 more losses 5-3
broncos     2-6            need 4 more losses 4-4
chiefs      5-3               need 7 more losses 1-7
cowboys     1-7                W I N N E R
panthers    1-7              need 3 more losses 5-3
rams        4-4                need 8 more losses 0-8
tampa       5-3              need 8 more losses 0-8

A word of appreciation goes out to the dallas cowboys
for being the first team to cash the ticket
with some more luck this week perhaps

the following teams will move closer to getting the job done
jacksonville jaguars, chicago bears, buffalo bills, and carolina panthers

almost forgot the colts
will the bengals rise from the ash pile and upset the colts
may just be possible as the colts are only seven point favorites

week eleveen kicks off tonight with the bears and dolphins
lets take a quick look at where our seasonal plays currently stand

chargers  4-5    need 7 more wins  7-0
niners      3-6    need 7 more wins  7-0
balt          6-3    need 4 more wins  4-3
tenn         5-4    need 4 more wins  4-3
giants      6-3    need 4 more wins  4-3
packers  6-3    need 4 more wins  4-3
jaguars   5-4    need 2 more wins  2-5
bears      6-3    need 2 more wins  2-5

dallas    2-7    W I N N E R
tampa     6-3    possible loser (see initial post)

rams        4-5    need 7 more losers 0-7
chiefs      5-4    need 6 more losers 1-6
broncos   3-6    need 4 more losers 3-4
colts         6-3    need 3 more losers 4-3
buffalo     1-8    need 3 more losers 4-3
panthers  1-8    need 2 more losers 5-2

the second half of the season is underway
and the above plays are beginning to take shape
as of today
can still finish with eleveen likely winners

its been a few weeks since the last posted message
lets catch up with whats been happening with the season plays
that currently stand at 5-5 with six plays still pending

following teams projected seasonal forecast landed in the win column

colts
======
two years ago manning burned us in the seasonal play
this year after week 12 we cash this play against manning

chic bears
===========
to    helmstetter
only thing to say regarding your comments back on the 8th of september is these bears have not only beaten the lions twice
but also top teams like the eagles and packers

jaguars
========
jack del rio has this team sitting atop the afc south division
thought this team was a goner
after their poor performance on monday night versus the titans
followed that monday night game up with another losing performace
but since that time have rebounded quite well going 4-1 last five games

dallas cowboys
================
say what you want about wade phillips
he still is the coach since 1996 to lead this team to a playoff win
a coaching list that included
bill parcells, chan gailey, barry switzer, and dave campo

that said it was time for him to go
and jason garrett four games into his tenure has done quite well

carolina panthers
==================
this team has fallen on hard times
sure they finished last season 8-8
winning four of their last five to accomplish that record
but looking back over the past couple seasons
this team has never really gotten over how they were blown out
in a playoff game versus the arizona cardinals
the panthers went into that game about  a ten point favorite
and were totally outplayed in the first half                                                the score being 27-7 at the half
perhaps its time for john fox to join the list of - former head coach

following teams projected season forecast landed in the losing column

chargers
=========
so far this season this team has really let their fans down
still have somewhat of a slim chance to win this poor division
but these chargers without a running game to compliment the passing of phillip rivers  has found the season a challenge
gotta believe the hard core charger fans
only wish for marty to still be the man in the head coaching position
the four years under norv turner this team has become soft

san francisco 49ers
====================
if i recall correctly before the season this team many peoples choice
to win this weak division
which brings me to the old saying of
if the herd is all going in one direction
than its time to go the opposite direction
with the rams and seahawks both ahead of the niners in the division
that old saying has proven to be true in this instance

the question goes out how much longer will mike singletary be the head coach

kc chiefs
===========
kudos go out to lvkenny420
this team caught me by surprise
in hindsight not sure why now that is/was
nevertheless, this team seems to have a good foundation going for it
charlie wiess and romeo crannel as the offensive and defensive coordinators respectively
both these men back in positions they are more suitable for
have this team sitting atop the afc west and playing solid football week in and week out

st louis rams
==============
head coach steve spagnouolo (former giants defensive coordinator)
looks like he may have this team headed back to playing some winning football
behing the combination of a healthy steven jackson 
and good quarterback play from sam bradford
(minus a poor showing in detroit)
coach spagnouolo has this team
not only playing well but also winning games on the rOad
this team should be one to follow in the upcoming years

tampa bay buccaneers
====================
another team that looks like its back to winning football
behind the head coaching of raheem morris
and the quarterback play of josh freeman
the next step for this team is learning how to beat the leagues top notch teams
against teams like the falcons, saints, ravens and steelers
this team is 0-5
against the rest of the league this team is 7-0
what may be missing from this team is    a dependable running back

teams outcome still to be decided

1 denver broncos       needs to lose one more game

2 baltimore ravens     last four need to finish at least 2-2

3 tennessee titans     last four need to finish at least 3-1

4 new york giants      last four need to finish at least 1-3

5 green bay packers    last four need to finish at least 2-2

6 buffalo bills        needs to lose one more game

before i go glad to see the following out of pittsburgh the past few days
first and most important to me ( being a steelers fan )
steelers beating the baltimore ravens   HELL   YEAH  !!!!

second  ( before we go on let it be known i am not a pitt panther fan )
that dave wannstedt finally came to his senses and stepped down as the head coach of the pitt panthers never could figure out why they hired him to start with i really hope dave finds a good decent team he can go back to being the defensive coordinator for
As I mentioned above with charlie wies and romeo crennal
some men were meant to be coordinators and others to be head coaches

see everyone next week