NFL Week 1

NFL is back.


YTD: 0-0


Green Bay/Philadelphia OVER 44.5

I don't play many totals but it's difficult to imagine both teams here not getting into the mid 20's. Green Bay may have the best offense in the league. They routinely moved it against everyone last season and this year they bring everyone back and have the same system. The Packers faced seven Top 15 defenses last season and still put up an average of 26.1 PPG against them with the Pack reaching at least 23 in 6 of the 7 meetings so even against a good Philly defense I think they will move the ball.

Green Bay did have a great defense last season but I think they will come back to earth a bit this year. There's a handful of new starters on that unit as well who could take a few weeks to learn their roles and get comfortable. I love the Philly offense and love Kevin Kolb as the QB. This should be a Top 10 offense and more importantly Kolb will get rid of the ball quickly and into the hands of a plethora of play making receivers targets including RB LeSean McCoy who is a great pass catcher.

I think this total is going to move before game time. Let's hope there isn't a windstorm on September 12th.

More to come.

GL........i thought hard about this play but I cannot bring myself to trust Kolb and that crappy offensive line they have to put up points.......it could definately go over, but i played GB big -2

agreed. GB looks very sharp on off.  on the other hand it may be time to fade the favorites to win the SB - colts? Their def looks like swiss cheese. they need another TOP rb. i just see it being another let down season for them. GB - now there is  a team  to watch.

I'm awful with totals, but this looks like a solid bet.  Did you see how good GB looked in that Indy game?  I realize a ton of points were piled on late, but Rodgers did his thing and showed regular season form against a solid Indy team.  I'm not a big fan of their defense and I think it will be their downfall over the course of the season, and that is why this Over against Philly looks so good.  I don't think GB will be able to stop them.  Kevin Kolb is obviously gonna be the key to Philly's success this year.  As with most young QBs, there is gonna be a learning curve.  Where Kolb has an advantage over a good majority of young quarterbacks trying to break into the league is how he was brought up.  He isn't a top talent guy dealing with the pressure of a big contract or being the face of a franchise all while being rushed into a tough job.  He isn't that young bench QB who took over for an injured or benched starter and was thrown to the wolves.  He has been around for three years mastering Andy Reid's offense.  Like Mac said, he is gonna make quick decisions and fire the ball all over the field.  Look at what he did last year in his first two career starts.  He throws for 390 against the future SB Saints who started the season like a buzzsaw.  Yes, he made some mistakes, but can you fault him against a team that turned out to be so good at creating turnovers?  Next week he comes out and completely picks apart a bad KC team doing exactly what a good QB should do throwing for another 300.....

Ok, I'm high as hell and got sidetracked.......We all know what GB can do on offense.  I don't care for the Packer D at all.  I think Kolb can shred GB.  Recipe for an over.  Good call, Mac.  I'm gonna tail you here.  In a related story, I was a day late jumping on this bet and after last night's game at Indy, the line is now 46.  LMFAO, the books didn't waste any time schooling me concerning line movement! 

I've just started to eye down possible Week 1 wagers, and one that stood out was the Giants -7.  I can see a lot of people both sharp and square going with the Panthers here, and I'm sure they can give a compelling argument, but I don't think this is their day.  There's only one question you need to answer to pick the winner here and it is "Will the Panthers be able to run on NY"?  On paper they certainly have a shot, but knowing Tom Coughlin he whipped his guy's asses in training camp, and have them in form to start the season.  Add that to the talent and depth of their line in Canty, Tuck, Cofield, Kiwanuka, Umiyeora, Bernard, and I think they can own this matchup.  And that's not even considering you have a young guy in Matt Moore in a season opener on the road as a New York team plays it's first game in a brand new, fancy stadium with a full crowd of animals waiting to light that place up with their energy.

Any thoughts on that game, AndyMac?

Saw this thread and looked at the Week 1 lines.  Two games that jumped out to me was Minny +4.5 and Washington +3.5.  Take a look at SB champs and how they fare game 1, it aint pretty. 

Hey just saw this.

I'm not sure I'm going to be able to give much on the Giants game. The line looks spot on to be at -7. The Giants are the better team and they may be looking for revenge after Carolina spanked them here to end last season, but they do go on the road next week @ Indy on SNF so could they be peeking ahead a bit here? If they aren't looking ahead I could see them covering. Like you said there are a lot of people high on the Panthers and I'm not so sure why. Their defense could be quite bad, plus they've had a lot of banged up guys on offense. John Fox as a TD dog though is something that seems to hit more often than not.

Not sure I gave much there but I could give arguments for both sides as the line looks spot on to me.

This Packer total is up to 47.I could see it going to 48.

Mac. 

Not high on Kolb yet, so it's hard for me to count on him for points this early in the season.  No play personally but BOL.

Best of luck this season andarmac99 

I tend to agree with you on the over in Phili vs GB

like it. GL this year.

Mac, what do you think of the Thursday night game?  My early instinct was Minny, but between Favre reporting so late with his bad ankle and some key injuries, I'm not so sure now.  Both teams are almost identical to last year, and even though the Saints defeated them late last year, I believe that Minny was the superior team and would beat them down repeatedly if they were to play each other in a hypothetical best of 3/5/7.

So besides the injuries and Favre question marks, I also think New Orleans is better built to start the season off with a bang.  You know Brees is gonna have that offense in mid season form right out of the gate, and I can't say the same for Minnesota and Brett.  Besides the injuries and such, they are more a team that is built on physicality and get better as the season progresses.  So with all that said, I think I am just gonna pass because I don't want to start the season with a loss on a second guess wager.

I'm not really feeling this 1st week card at all.  How often do you have Week 1 with EIGHT small home dogs on the card??  I look at these 8 games and one part of me says this is a Captain Obvious week and don't outsmart yourself, but another side of me says tread carefully with those small road favorites. 

Some quick and very basic thoughts on the eight.........

Atlanta -2.5 @ Pittsburgh.  Everything here seems to point to a Falcon victory, but I'm not so sure fucking with Pitt at home is the right way to start the season.  With the exception of two bad decisions by Dixon in the Bronco preseason game, he has looked really good this summer, and his play is a major x factor imo.  Looking at the Falcons on a year basis, I think they can be a really good squad.  All signs go to Ryan stepping his game up in his 3rd year.  He has a nice line, a potent running attack, and some nice targets to throw to.  The Falcons defense which has been pretty awful improved as the year progressed, and a few key additions might make them respectable.  So this looks like a game where you could say to not overthink it and take the Falcons, but I just can't pull the trigger.

Miami -3 @ Buffalo.  I don't care for either of these teams, and their strengths and weaknesses don't really give either one of them much of an advantage enough for me to pull the trigger.  I believe Miami is gonna have a dogshit defense, but does Buffalo have the skill at QB to take advantage?  On the other side, Miami should be able to run on Buffalo with Brown/Ricky/Wildcat, but I'm afraid Henne will have some problems with that Buffalo secondary on the road.  Special teams also favor Buffalo heavily.  I want to take a shot with Buffalo, but just can't do it.  I'm not a huge advocate of starting off the season betting on potentially bad teams.  I'm not saying Week 1 I lay big wood in every game, but I do tend to avoid subpar teams until I see them a bit and get a gauge on them. 

Indy -2.5 @ Houston.  I can ramble on all afternoon about this game, but at the end of the day how can you fade Peyton Manning?  Take away the Super Bowl loss, the loss at San Diego in the 08 playoffs, and last year's late season throwaway games, when was the last time Manning fucking lost?  October of 2008.  How can you fade him?  As much as I like Houston for this upcoming year, I'm not messing around with them here.

SF -3 @Seattle.  San Francisco seems to be building a pretty good squad and a lot of people think this is gonna be a rout, but I'm not so sure.  Regardless of how lopsided this game looks, the superior QB is on the Seahawk squad and will be backed by arguably the best home field advantage in the league.

Green Bay -3 @ Philly.  My initial instinct was Philly.  I think GB is extremely overrated going into this season, and their defense is gonna be exposed real soon.  On the contrary, I think Philly is way underrated going into 2010, and it seemed to be setting up for a nice upset early in the season.  I'm having second thoughts though.  Regardless of the holes I see all over the GB squad, almost all of them have nothing to do with A-Rod and his horses on offense.  He has looked stellar this preseason, and looks to be in midseason form already.  While I think Philly is gonna have a nice little offense(love Kolb and he has weapons galore), their defense is very suspect, and the more I look at the game, the more I think Kolb is gonna have to be utterly PERFECT to beat Rodgers in a shootout.  That's a lot to ask the kid.  I'm staying away from a side in this one and rooting a shootout for my over 46 wager.

Arizona -4 @St. Louis.  Regardless of the Zona hate I hear, I think they have a solid all around squad and are the team to beat in the West.  St. Louis is a toilet bowl team, but Bradford is a bit of a wild card.  He has played pretty awesome the last couple games, and I don't want to mess with him even though I feel Zona owns just about every matchup.  The Leinart shit is a distraction as well, and I think I am just gonna avoid this squad totally until things settle down.

Dallas -4 @Washington.  I love Dallas this year, but something is keeping me away.  I'm not too worried about how Dallas' offense looked in the preseason(like dogshit), but I can't totally discount it either.  I think like Minnesota they will peak later in the season, so I will be staying away.  Gun to my head, I say they win a 16-6 kind of game Sunday night.

San Diego -5 @Kansas City.  The obvious no brainer is the Chargers.  They are the superior squad and should sleepwalk through a pretty weak division.  I hear a lot of chirping about how KC is gonna surprise people, and I gotta admit I like what I have seen this preseason, but I can't pull the trigger on them without seeing them in action in real games.  Same can be said for SD.  By all means they can blow out KC, but I remember the last couple of years in their opener.  Oakland manhandled them last year on MNF and by all means should have won that game.  Year before they came out rusty and lost to the Panthers.  Year before I vaguely remember them looking like dogshit and squeaking by the Bears in something like a 10-3 game.  So between their history of sluggish starts, and the possibility of a mean hungry team surprising them in their home stadium, I am gonna probably stay away.

 

 

 

 

peeking ahead eh?  cmon mac, youre better than this. As if week 1 home opener in a new stadium werent enough, theyre playing with revenge against a team that embarrassed them in their last game, in a new stadium...that absurd comment about them looking ahead aside, i think you answered youre own question

Thanks for the insight and pick.  Great to have you capping the NFL.

Actually, SB champs have done very well in week 1. It is the SB losers who have done really bad lately.

eagles fan for 15 + years.  line should be 7.  somethings tells me an upset win.   will be laying off the game, watching, with beer in hand.  gl  

Thursday game - I took Minny +6 back when Favre decided he wanted some more attention. Then I came back with N.O. -4 when Favre decided he was coming back. Not really loving the game to be honest. I agree that Minny was better over the long haul last year but I'm not willing to back Favre yet. More and more I'm getting the feeling he was dragged back and actually wanted to stay retired. He was killed here last time and believe it or not he may play scared. The Saints will smell blood and blitz the shit out of the old man. I'm just going to shoot for the small middle I have on this one and not add anything else. Like you say, tough game and don't want regrets forcing a bet on the first game of the year.

ATL/PIT - This looks like a big overreaction to Big Ben being out. I will be betting the Steelers here as a small home dog. Dennis Dixon has had a very, very good training camp by all accounts but he goes out in a national TV game in the preseason and throws a couple picks and all of a sudden the sky is falling. I don't buy it. He's been in this system for a few years now and I think he'll have a good game. He's not the passer Big Ben is but he'll be a big improvement when the pocket collapses as Ben would usually hold the ball forever and take a sack, while Dixon should be able to get out and run when that happens and actually gain positive yardage. I like the Steelers run game as well with Mendenhall looking for a big year. While the Steelers defense gave the impression of taking a step back last year I think they will be just fine. They still finished 5th in total defense last year despite huge injuries in the secondary including a Top 5 player in Polamalu for 11 games. Plus, their special teams will be improved after having one of the worst units in years last season. This team is too good to be a home dog in their home opener against what I see as an unproven Atlanta team.

The Falcons may be good and their defense "should" be improved but I want to see it first, I want them to prove to me that they are good enough to be laying road wood against an established team like the Steelers. Until they prove they are good enough to be in this price range I will take the other side.

MIA/BUF - Yuck. I think Miami is overrated and will be a disappointment when all is said and done so I want no part of laying road wood with them. But at the same time I can't take Buffalo at only +3. I think they will be bad this year but I do think they will be a good bet at big spreads down the road, but not here at just +3.

IND/HOU - I am taking the Colts here. Like you say Manning is a regular season beast. How many times have the Colts been small road favs in spots like this and still gotten in done? They are 7-1 ATS as road favs of -3 or less the last three years. Much, like Atlanta, I want the Texans to prove to me that they are good enough to finally beat the Colts at home. So far they have not and I will go the other way until they can prove their franchise can actually win a big game.

You know I was watching a CFL game back in August between Winnipeg and Hamilton where Winnipeg was chasing Hamilton in the division and were looking to get a win after Hamilton beat them the previous two times they played each other. Winnipeg was at home and it was an eerily similar spot to this game. Winnipeg came out with a ton of energy, so much so that it was too much. They were overpersuing everything, taking huge risks to make big plays, and were taking dumb penalties because they were so amped up. As a result Hamilton exploited their over aggressiveness big time and burnt them for huge plays, getting out to a nice lead and completely taking the crowd out of the game and sucking all the energy out of the stadium. Things just spiraled from there and Winnipeg unraveled and self-destructed ultimately losing by double digits. At that point I said to myself  "oh fuck, this could be Colts/Texans Week 1 NFL".

I may be reaching but the Texans are putting so much importance into this game that it could be their undoing. The pressure is squarely on Houston, they are having their "white-out" and all that crap and if they truly want to contend they have to win this game. What if Indy gets out to a lead? The momentum and energy will quickly evaporate and the "same old Texans" feeling will spread like wildfire throughout the stadium. If Houston plays overaggressive trying to do too much Manning will eat them alive. What if Houston gets out to a big lead like they have here the last 2 years against the Colts and Indy starts to make a comeback? People may actually leave during the game sick saying "same old fucking Texans".

Houston is like that little brother who has been beaten up all his life by his big brother. Now he comes ready to fight but he may be too fired up and aggressive while big brother sits back and capitalizes and hits him back hard. Now little brother starts to get frustrated, he thought he could win, he put pressure on himself to win but yet again he is losing, now he unravels and self destructs with big brother winning yet again. I want Houston to prove to me that they are no longer the kid brother.

SF/SEA - Another game where I want a team to prove something. I want San Francisco to prove to me that they are good enough to win on the road as favorites against a division opponent.

I'm not as in love with Seattle as I was even a week ago but I think they are still a good bet as a home dog. I like Alex Smith and think he will have a good year but trusting him as a road fav in probably the loudest stadium in the league is something I will bet against until he can prove to me that he can get results in these situations. Plus starting two rookies on the offensive line in their first game in this stadium is a little sketchy. Seattle is rebuilding but I get the feeling there is a lot of optimism there and they may come out playing loose and under the radar looking to make a statement that they should not be overlooked. The Hawks have played well in their home openers in Qwest Field as well going 6-2 ATS since this stadium opened.

GB/PHI - I have no clue on the side here. All I know is that I got a great number on a soft line on the total and will be rooting for points and no wind.

ARZ/STL - Wouldn't be caught dead laying road wood with Zona and I want no part of St. Louis this week. Pass.

DAL/WSH - I agree with you here. Initial lean was Dallas but I will pass. Gun to my head I might take Washington.


SD/KC - Well after saying I want up and coming teams to prove to me that they are worthy all through this post, I am going to take the Chiefs. Year after year the Chargers say they want to get off to a good start but year after year they know in the back of their minds they will turn it up late and win a joke of a division so they come out of the gates flat. I think they come out flat here again even on the road. I'm not sure how they can be totally up for the Chiefs even in Week 1 after beating the living shit out of them last year winning both meetings by 30 points. On the other side I think the atmosphere will be electric in Arrowhead and I think the Cheifs come out fired up with a youthful team and hang in the game right down to the wire if not win outright. This situation is different to me than the Texans because there is massive pressure on the Texans but with the Chiefs we a very young team that is just looking to show that they are progressing this year. There are a lot of young play makers on KC as well that could provide some electric plays on this rare prime time game in KC.

Kansas City

I'm making a big play on them Monday..

"Oakland manhandled them last year on MNF and by all means should have won that game."

Glad I'm not the only person that remembers that debacle. I had SD and won't make the same mistake twice -- its KC or a no play for me

WOOOOO TIME TO WIN SOME SERIOUS MONEY THIS SEASON GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE AND MAY YOUR PLAYS WIN.

I've changed my mind and will be playing the Giants now that there are 6.5's out there.

The look ahead factor is not as significant in Week 1 and although I'm not a believer in playing on revenge angles from one year to the next I can see the Giants holding a grudge here after Carolina whipped them in the final game in old Giants stadium. It's only fitting they open up the new stadium against the same Panthers team.

As far as the game on paper goes I also think the edge that the Giants have is being priced improperly. The Giants sucked last year because their defense fell apart under Bill Sheridan. But the offense had to do a lot of things to get back into games and stay in games and as a result a lot of things developed on offense instead of the vanilla game plan of running the ball and Manning playing ball control. The Giants offense finished 8th best last year and now they can run it and pass it quite effectively. The offense could be explosive especially considering they bring everybody back. The defense should be improved as well as they bring in a fiery new coordinator and the D-line gets back into shape and the safety spot which killed them last year gets Kenny Phillips back and brings in Antrel Rolle who was overpaid but will make a difference. I don't put much stock into the preseason but the Giants first team defense was outstanding against the run which is big here against a run first team.

Again it was preseason but it's hard to overlook how pathetic the Panthers offense was. They will likely be without the starting right side of their O-line from last year and the receiving options simply aren't good. Steve Smith will play but he's missed almost all of camp and has not played a down in preseason, that's a ton of time that was lost trying to get into a groove with Matt Moore. What happens if the Panthers get down and have to throw the ball? It could get ugly.