2009 NFL Season: The Revenge Factor

Many people take into account the revenge factor of capping. I am a firm believer that history DOES NOT repeat itself when it comes to gambling. I’ve done a quick analysis of repeated matchups this season. Hope I got all of them:

Miami/NYJ

First Meeting: Miami Over

Second Meeting: Miami Over

Oakland/SD

First Meeting: Oakland Over

Second Meeting: Oakland Under

Minnesota/GB

First Meeting: Minnesota Over

Second Meeting: Minnesota Over

Baltimore/Cincy

First Meeting: Cincy Under

Second Meeting: Cindy Under

Detroit/Minnesota

First Meeting: Minnesota Under

Second Meeting: Minnesota Under

Atlanta/Carolina

First Meeting: Atlanta Over

Second Meeting: Carolina Over

KC/Oak

First Meeting: Oakland Under

Second Meeting: KC Under

Seattle/Arizona

First Meeting: Arizona Under

Second Meeting: Arizona Over

Baltimore/Cleveland

First Meeting: Baltimore Under

Second Meeting: Baltimore Under

SD/Denver

First Meeting: Den Over

Second Meeting: SD Under

NYJ/NE

First Meeting: NYJ Under

Second Meeting: NE, PUSH

According to these stats, the team that has covered the first meeting has covered the second meeting 7/11 times this season. The same exact outcome 5 times out of 11. I think it is beginning to even out, as the last two games this past weekend have had opposite outcomes.

What this is leading to is an analysis on the Detroit/GB game. In the first meeting, there was no Stafford of Johnson. In the second meeting it is the same scenario, with the same line. The first meeting the line was -14. It is now -11 with the 3 pt adjustment for home field advantage.

So logically, same teams should produce the same outcomes correct? NOT.  This includes Detroit being known as getting trounced every Thanksgiving.

I believe Detroit is the play here, however all the favorites have covered like 3 years in a row. Sometimes trends/traditions cannot be broken.

What makes the line even shadier is that Green Bay is rolling right now. Fresh off a big win vs. Dallas, and a domination of San Fran until a backdoor cover in the second half.

Detroit is coming across their first win in a long time. However, they are missing their big play guys from that game. They also didn't cover that game, which means they have not covered 5 games in a row. You would think the line would be adjusted because of it. I count the Minnesota game as a loss because it only shows a push on covers because of very late line movement. It was 16.5 all week.

Yes, I know Green Bay is missing two defensive personnel. But a 36-0 first meeting is pretty telling here.