NFL Week 9

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Been busy with some personal shit on top of being balls deep in the Breeder's Cup card at Santa Anita.

I was looking back at my bets the last four years, and Week 9 I always get my ass fucked in the NFL.  Probably coincidence, but without fail I seem to build up momentum Weeks 5-8 and I always trip up this week.  EVERY year.

Probably gonna go light this week(for the reasons I stated above), so I don't have much to offer.  If I do make any plays, I'll try to pop in later in the week with some quick insight.

One play I do like is Arizona.  Big time bounceback game for the Cards.  Their D-line is gonna eat up Chicago's awful O-line, and I think Cutler is gonna be forced into a lot of mistakes when their run game stalls.  I actually lean the other way on Baltimore. I get the feeling this squad is gonna get rolling like they did last season around this time.  I wasn't very high on them going into the season, and they are far from perfect, but I think they have a good shot at beating up on Cincy.  Spread bugs me a bit though.  I had it at a PK, and -3 surprised me a bit.  Not sure if the linesmakers are overrating Balt or underrating Cincy.  I was leaning Seattle and penciled it at -6, but -10 scared me away.  Giants look to be in a good spot to stop that losing streak.  Green Bay looks to be in an awful spot to be laying 10 on the road.  Wash and Houston look to be tasty dogs, but I can't pull the trigger.

Quote Originally Posted by vd408:

i wanna pick the bear against cardinal. i dunno wat to do

Quote Originally Posted by Whodeysb09:

Palmer played in the first preseason game by the way but not very long.  Not to mention he was out virtually all of last season.  Remember people considered him to be a top 5 QB in the league back in 05.  Since his injury he hasn't been the same, but now I think he is finally getting back into the flow of things.  If he really starts getting hot and gets really clicking with all the receivers this offense will be extremely dangerous, mix in the stingy defense like you said passing yards given up is high, but those stats are skewed.  Their rush defense is one of the best in the league as far as stats go.  Palmer looked like he was back against the Bears hopefully we get a carry over..and finishes strong.  The Bengals and Ravens both really need this game, I think it comes down to who wants it the most.

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



You probably know this offense I lot better than I do but I get the same feeling.

Who Dey 

Quote Originally Posted by Whodeysb09:



I know the offense well, I honestly thought our offensive line was going to be fairly bad this season.  They have really impressed me.  They have been pretty damn good.  I love Whitworth he's physical and just extremely solid.  I remember when him and John Henderson got into it because Henderson keep putting his hands on whitty's face, freakin Whit jacked his ass up.  It was great.  Also or RT Dennis Roland who has came out of no where has been really good.  He is 6'9" that is tall.  The guards are solid, and Kyle Cook at C has proven he can handle all of the NT's in the AFC North in only his first year as a starter.  Offensive line will only get better when Andre Smith gets in there.  We will move people around to accomadate him eventually.  I think he is actually active this weekend...doubt he will play unless we go with an extra tackle which we have done a lot this season and it has worked.  Unbalanced lines with 6 lineman and a TE has been a good package for us.  Sorry I'm typing to much I get like this.  I always feel detail is the most important thing. 

WHO-DEY...I'll be saying that a lot Sunday....

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



Yeah man I've been pretty busy this week as well. I really wavered on the games this week but this is what I have for now and will most likely stick with:

New England -10

Cincinnati +3

Arizona +3

San Francisco -4

Kansas City/Jacksonville OVER 41.5 (haven't played much yet, waiting for the drop to key # of 41).


NE - I think even if the Pats didn't show up on Sunday they could win this game in a blowout. I don't think the Dolphins are that great of a team. They've had some emotional efforts at home on MNF this season but haven't done much else. I watched last week's game and they were absolutely dominated and should have lost by 2 scores but 2 kick return TD's later and that's the NFL. Chad Henne does not turn me on. Very average QB IMO and the people he is throwing to are even worse. When his team gets down and he is forced to throw I expect him to fail.

A lot of people taking Miami this week are probably hoping they see a repeat of the Colts game where the wildcat eats the clock and keeps the Pats offense off the field but I just don't see it. When Miami came here last year they unveiled the wildcat and beat the Pats SU, I really don't think they will catch the Pats by surprise again and with 2 weeks to prepare Belichick will likely have it contained. The Dolphins pass defense is terrible and injuries have forced them into starting two rookie cornerbacks, I expect Brady to pick them apart. Nothing but sunshine and temps in the 60's expected as well so no weather issues for the Pats passing game. I realize NE plays Indy next week but the last time this team was healthy with Brady at the helm the game before they went to Indy they won 52-7.


CIN - I got on this line fairly quickly this week but as the week wore on I started to have second thoughts and considered getting out if it went to -2.5. Then I wavered back and now like the play. A lot of people are playing the "revenge" angle this week but I'm not sure I see it. The Ravens haven't been that great of a team playing on revenge in recent years. The oddsmakers seem to have the Ravens pegged as the better team but truth be told I don't think they are.

I may be a bit delusional as I have been a huge Bengals supporter this season but this is a damn good football team. I know we both loved them coming into the year and the OVER season wins looks like a mortal lock with games against Cleveland, Oakland, Detroit and Kansas City still to come (3 at home). This team has the potential to win 10+ games. I think they are a playoff team. I know this seems like doesn't have a lot to do with this particular matchup but I believe it does. The one real weakness for the Bengals this season (and I believe you have alluded to it as well) is defending tightends and running backs catching passes. Some of it is due to personnel matchups and some is probably due to the fact that their two corners are so good that opposing QB's have to dump the ball off. The Bengals don't have the sexy stats (in fact their pass D in terms of YPA is only slightly better than Baltimore), however they have played some high powered offenses so far. If you look at those games, the two corners have done an excellent job at shutting down receivers.

The Ravens starting WR's are some of the weakest in the league and in the earlier matchup were held to a combined 3 catches I believe. Baltimore moved the ball by throwing to Heap and Ray Rice. To me this game is simple, contain Heap and Rice (obviously easier said than done) and you win. I don't expect much out of the Raven recievers this week again and with two weeks to prepare and film from the previous meeting I think the Bengals have formulated a solid gameplan for breaking up Rice and Heap which I believe will really break this offense up. One think that may help as well is Heap is banged up and has not fully practiced this week with an ankle injury. Speaking of ankle injuries, Haloti Ngata has not practiced at all this week with an ankle injury and would be a massive blow to the Ravens defense if he is out or not 100% which looks likely. I think the Bengals offense is still getting in sync as well. They've got a couple new recievers and Palmer missed a lot of spring training (almost all I believe) with an ankle injury that still hobbled him in the early weeks.


ARZ - You pretty much summed it up. Bounceback spot for the Cards. I don't have the stats but was looking it up earlier in the week and with the exception of a game where he got hurt, Kurt Warner has had some freakish games off games in which he committed a lot of turnovers. I don't expect the Bears to be able to run whatsoever and like you said, that means Cutler throwing and forcing and that means turnovers. I don't think this Bears team is very good either. 3 of their 4 wins have come against Cleveland, Detroit, and Seattle without Hasselbeck.........yuck. Sure they beat Pittsburgh, but did they? It seemed like Pittsburgh beat themselves in that game with costly turnovers and 2 missed field goals late. I expect a very focused effort out of the Cards this week. Weather is looking great for this offense as well. Partly sunny and warm with highs in the 60's.