Posted:
#1
"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 5's edition of the SUCKER
BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For
those of you who are unfamiliar
with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public
seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4
choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as
the SUCKER BET. Last week was another winner for the SUCKER BET as the Jaguars won outright bringing the season tally to 2-2 ATS. This week's SUCKER BET will be no surprise to those who have followed the SUCKER BET for years. Give me the Titans +4 hosting the Colts. Clearly from last week's SUCKET BET I don't subscribe to the "They've got to win one sooner or later" theory. What I do subscribe to is judging how the public reads the line. Vegas opened the line in this game at Colts -1, from there (not surprisingly) it quickly went up to 4 as the public jumped on the favorite. Not me, I like the home dog in a divisional rivalry. Not to mention, the Titans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. On the other hand, the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Am I reading this right the Colts defense is 2nd worst in the league at allowing opponents to convert on 3rd down at a rate of 48%? Obviously Titans backers need to be worried about the Titans not-so-hot pass defense up agaisnt the best QB in the game. That being said Peyton has uncharacteristically thrown 5 picks in his last 3 games in Tennessee. Also within this series, the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Often times a lean towards the Under is a lean towards the underdog. In this series, the under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. The Titans rush defense has been pretty strong this season as they are 1 of only 8 teams to allow less the 80 y/g on the ground. Only the Ravens (2.6) have allowed a lower yards/rush attempt than the Titans (2.8). There you have it, Titans +4. Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 6's SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
0
can't go against Manning - I believe he is going to shred the Titans secondary
Hot Forum Topics
