Submit your Questions to the Oddsmaker

Forum: NFL Betting Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Submit your Questions to the Oddsmaker
Rizzo PM Rizzo
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Posted: 10/5/2009 3:05:57 PM
Hey Guys,

Every week, Logans is giving you the chance to pick the brain of their oddsmakers Blake Edwards and Michael Perry.

Get inside info on upcoming match-ups, line movements, and other answers to any questions that you may have regarding the world of sports betting. Make this informative article a part of your handicapping routine.

Each week we'll reach out and collect questions from the Covers public, Perry and Edwards will then submit answers to the best questions in their next Ask the Oddsmaker article.

Post your questions in this thread, or send us and e-mail here.

Cheers,

-Rizz

ukpoker420 PM ukpoker420
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Posted: 10/5/2009 3:35:50 PM
Green Bay's blindside man their former pro bowl LT is out....how much does this critical injury affect the line?
Open-Cison PM Open-Cison
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Posted: 10/5/2009 3:46:55 PM
    How are the bookmakers going to stop from all the bettors from just fading ; St. Louis, Tampa, Clev, K.C, and Oakland all year long when they play the middle and top teams . After 4 weeks these teams seem highly uncompetitive , yet odds makers are reluctant to make  the line deep enough.

  How did week 4 of the NFL go for you fellows at  Logan's ?
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 10/5/2009 3:48:30 PM
Hey guys -- would you ever release actual information about how much you are booking on sides/totals of a game? In posts on this forums, we often hear about "the public is pounding X team" or "85% of the public is coming in on the over". I maintain that no book would actually release records, and if they did, they would be manipulated numbers and not accurate ones. Curious as to your thoughts of this.


ZarleyZalapski PM ZarleyZalapski
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Posted: 10/5/2009 4:03:51 PM
I love the numbers that Covers can dig up on certain referees and umpires.  How much will the team officiating a particular game affect the spread if at all?
 
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2009/umpire8440.html
 
 
AChigurh PM AChigurh
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Posted: 10/5/2009 4:06:30 PM
Once betters smarten up and realise betting exchanges are the way to go what does the tradition sportsbook do to compete??  Do you foresee a shrinking of the 20 cent line in all sports??  Are there any other stratagies you are brainstorming??
wonwiththehook PM wonwiththehook
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Posted: 10/5/2009 5:00:59 PM
Who do you think the best team in each conference is after 4 weeks ? Who do you think is the worst ?
AlexPKeaton PM AlexPKeaton
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Posted: 10/5/2009 5:44:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Open-Cison:

    How are the bookmakers going to stop from all the bettors from just fading ; St. Louis, Tampa, Clev, K.C, and Oakland all year long when they play the middle and top teams . After 4 weeks these teams seem highly uncompetitive , yet odds makers are reluctant to make  the line deep enough.

will see Giants ( with or without manning ) as 18 point favorite

sniperswife PM sniperswife
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Posted: 10/5/2009 6:03:06 PM
How true is the following statement?
 
The books handicap the bettors more than the games, but they want you to think the opposite.
Louis_IV PM Louis_IV
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Posted: 10/5/2009 6:13:33 PM
What is being used to show the percents on each side.  For example when I see 80% on one side and 20% on another.  Is this data generated from the sites themselves based on dollars or number of plays by users of that site?  How accurate is this?  What is the gain for the bookmakers in showing it to the better?
choiOi PM choiOi
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Posted: 10/5/2009 6:22:58 PM
Are the same oddsmakers responsible for the spread on NFL/College football, baskeball, and baseball lines? Or are there assigned oddsmakers for each sport?
m15525 PM m15525
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Posted: 10/5/2009 6:34:07 PM
Value In The NFL.

I see tons of value almost every week in NFL dogs (especially the bad teams over the past 3 years.) Over the years I have done very well playing road dogs. However, it has been very difficult for even me to bite on some great lines sometimes 2 to 3 points inflated. I used to have some confidence in sub par teams keeping a favorite (looking past them) close enough to steal an SU win or a backdoor cover...but it seems that during the past several seasons that teams are so bad that backdoor covers and upsets are a endangered species. I consider myself a value hunter/contrarian...but even I am finding myself terrified to take any amount of points with bad teams these days.

What are the books doing to keep business flowing on both sides of a game with the recent debauchery amongst the NFL's less then elite???
gatorsfan PM gatorsfan
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Posted: 10/5/2009 7:47:45 PM
Anyone have info on the 2 coaches MNF ats stats and or Favre/Rodgers MNF ats stats?
 
williamwallace PM williamwallace
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Posted: 10/5/2009 8:16:46 PM
do you guys pour over tape of the games like they would in an NFL practice?

do you have local 'specialists' that you obtain information from, meaning both insiders of the team or dedicated followers of the team?  if a trainer was to tell you something would that jeopardize his job?

do you even place personal bets?  what is or would be your percentage against the spread?

how many of you are creating these lines?  if oddsmakers disagree on a line does it come down to a vote or is there a pecking order, etc?

when creating a line will you determine a true line based on actual outcome and a line you have to put out based on money on each side?

how much of the line creating is math and statistics?  how much is feel and public perception? how much is simulation or algorithms?

Thanks
VegasMaxx PM VegasMaxx
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Posted: 10/5/2009 9:16:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by williamwallace:

do you guys pour over tape of the games like they would in an NFL practice?

do you have local 'specialists' that you obtain information from, meaning both insiders of the team or dedicated followers of the team?  if a trainer was to tell you something would that jeopardize his job?

do you even place personal bets?  what is or would be your percentage against the spread?

how many of you are creating these lines?  if oddsmakers disagree on a line does it come down to a vote or is there a pecking order, etc?

when creating a line will you determine a true line based on actual outcome and a line you have to put out based on money on each side?

how much of the line creating is math and statistics?  how much is feel and public perception? how much is simulation or algorithms?

Thanks
good luck getting any informative answers,  you're just waisting your breath with these guys
TheMattadore978 PM TheMattadore978
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Posted: 10/5/2009 9:17:31 PM
What types of line movements do you guys see on the weekends games?
midnight_toker PM midnight_toker
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Posted: 10/6/2009 1:50:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by williamwallace:

do you guys pour over tape of the games like they would in an NFL practice?

do you have local 'specialists' that you obtain information from, meaning both insiders of the team or dedicated followers of the team?  if a trainer was to tell you something would that jeopardize his job?

do you even place personal bets?  what is or would be your percentage against the spread?

how many of you are creating these lines?  if oddsmakers disagree on a line does it come down to a vote or is there a pecking order, etc?

when creating a line will you determine a true line based on actual outcome and a line you have to put out based on money on each side?

how much of the line creating is math and statistics?  how much is feel and public perception? how much is simulation or algorithms?

Thanks



Its ALL SIMULATION.  Oddsmakers do not sit a room together and vote on what the line should be.

Its all done with a computer.  They simulate the game tens of thousands of times (maybe more) and they adjust the lines depending on outside factors and to get equal money on both sides.

Thats why you see the line adjusting a FEW points (if any) or if a QB is DOWN, (like Miami,  Buffalo) you see a 6 point swing the other way.


Jon_Campbell PM Jon_Campbell
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Posted: 10/6/2009 2:13:06 PM
Some great questions here gents. This will definitely keep the oddsmakers busy this week.
 
Cheers
williamwallace PM williamwallace
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Posted: 10/6/2009 4:57:01 PM
and they adjust the lines depending on outside factors and to get equal money on both sides.
--------

ok i'll play...

who adjusts the line depending on what outside factors?
the Don of sportsbetting?

Who writes this computer program and based on what variables?

These simulations are based on stats just for that teams or those players.  Is it based on past teams, situational, like home dogs. or is it based on BJacobs is going to get 3.4 yards per carry?  There's SOOOOOOOOOOOOO many factors.

no offense toker, youre a good garbage, but you arent even scratching the surface.
williamwallace PM williamwallace
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Posted: 10/6/2009 4:59:50 PM
youre saying it is completely done by statistics???  that the line would be the same whether they enter a box score or do an qualitative analytic assessment??  somebody (100% a person or people) would have to account for public perception.  would have to account for how many points that hurt QB is worth.  what if they dont have statistics for the backup?

ETC

ETC

ETC

ETC

ETC
williamwallace PM williamwallace
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Posted: 10/6/2009 5:03:25 PM
in the last article he says that they will "only move games based on what we consider sharp money, and that’s after profiling customers for quite some time."

which means somebody is watching this.  somebody is deciding who is sharp or not.  somebody has to decide if the sharp has the game pegged better than the oddsmaker(s) does.
williamwallace PM williamwallace
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Posted: 10/7/2009 11:42:43 AM
if you think its all simulation...

then the madden simulation is valid??  i wouldnt bet on it

or youre saying that their algorithms are at least 20% (i would think) better than john madden.

and if this is the case then someone is writing these programs, actual people, who know what factors to weigh each amount and how to make an accurate simulation.  i know it could be done, i mean look at the madden game these days,  (i couldnt imagine writing code for something like that) but it would have to be done by some very very smart people.  a whole team of them.  they would basically be football scientists.  studying for hours upon hours and then deciding that if a running back gets 4 yards a carry they will win 53% of the time but that can be trumped by a certain amount of sacks etc etc etc etc etc.

it could all be done i suppose, i just think that theres a lot more manual input.  hopefully they answer this question because i would be fascinated if it is 100% simulation.
Patriotsfinished PM Patriotsfinished
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Posted: 10/7/2009 1:57:02 PM
Here's a question:
over the past 10 years in the NFL when a line has moved three points or more from the opening line onto the favorite how frequently did the favorite still cover the spread? As a follow-up along the same lines, how many times has this occurred? Thanks
Rizzo PM Rizzo
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Posted: 10/9/2009 12:35:58 PM
Guys,

This week's Ask the Oddsmaker article can be accessed here.

Thanks for submitting your questions.

Cheers,

-Rizz
williamwallace PM williamwallace
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Posted: 10/10/2009 4:30:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VegasMaxx:

good luck getting any informative answers,  you're just waisting your breath with these guys



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