WEEK 4's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 4's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was another nail biter as the Seahawks lost the cover on a game-ending touchdown.  This season all three of the SUCKER BETS looked like strong plays until the closing seconds of the game.  However, our season record stands at 1-2 ATS.  This week I'll take the Jaguars +3 hosting the Titans.  This line opened as a pick'em and the public began heavily supporting the winless Titans driving the lineup to a favorable position for cappers leaning towards the Jags.  In the past, home dogs in a divisional rivialry have faired well for the SUCKER BET.  Overall, I think there are a lot of people supporting the "Titans have to win one here soon" philosphy.  That's not a strong football foundation to wager money on.  What is strong is the fact that the Jaguars have the better rated QB.  The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0 and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.  Conversely, the Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC teams, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.  An already very weak Titans defense is dinged up and I think Mike Sims-Walker could have a big game. The Jags have some momentum coming off a divisonal win against Houston last week.  I'm not a big fan at comparing 2 teams (TEN & JAX) vs. how they performed against the same opponent (HOU), but the Jags went into Houston and beat them, holding them to 24 points.  Whereas the Titans hosted the Texans and lost, giving up 31 points.  Really these 2 teams are statiscally very close and have similar strengths and weaknesses.  There you have it, Jags plus a field goal is this week's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop.  Good luck everyone and have a great weekend!  See you next week for WEEK 5's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

Initially I was on the other side of this game, but the more I think about it, the more I think the Jags can control the clock and put some points on the board.
I saw another post commenting on the Titans ball hawking last year, being in the top 3 of the turnover margin.  That led them to getting the W in many close games.  This year they have not been getting the bounces and losing those games.  Jacksonville is a team that will take care of the ball - and hopefully take this matchup!
I love getting the points at home in this matchup - and locked in 3.5 earlier this week-

Love the pick - BOL apples! 

This one makes me nervous.  Lot of books charging extra vig for that +3.  Seems like they want to keep that number at 3 and you to take the Jags.  

For the first time this year, I'm on the Titans.   They're a veteran team desperately needing a win, playing a team that isn't quite as good as they are.

Titans by 10 over Jags

GL demapples

My take on the Jags this year is that they are not a terrible team, but they are nowhere near as good as the Titans.  True, the Titans are banged up, but lost one game they shouldn't have at home against the Texans.  Besides that they lost a nail biter OT game at Pitt to open the year with a healthy Polamalu and a tough game at the Meadowlands against the Jets which they would have won if there punt returner wasn't retarted.

Jacksonville can't come close to selling out that stadium so playing on the road here compared to Pitt and NYJ is gonna be a cakewalk.  Titans are a veteran team that know they need to win and when you say its a bad defense already thats banged up, thats just false.  This is a good defense, especially against the run, going against a team with one playmaker, MJD, the running back.  Take the Titans and enjoy your winnings.

Last week I pointed out that the JAGS looked like the "sucker bet." This week it smells a lil fishy to me, Yes the titans have loss all 3 games, but because of turnovers and sloppy play, (which are part of the game) has shot them in the foot.  If they can clean up their act, they have the ability to win by DD. (just my opinion)  

^^^^^oops, HOU was sucker bet, JAX was the play^^^^^

So its a toss up  - tails says its the Jags thanks for the insight and BOL

Took Titians @ -3 +100 - as they will have their first win this week by 7

train I agree with you 100%. Tennesse is not a sucker bet. With tennessee losing because of the returner Mouton from hawaii.Those two fumbles costed them to TD's. You are rigth on here.