***Week 15 Card: Plays and Write Ups****

30-18-1 YTD Posted (62.5%)

- Had a decent week last week going 9-2 until taking an absolute beating on MNF.  I lost three bets that night with the only winner being a moneyline hedge, I got drunk, and ranted like a child on a few threads.  I really really hate it when a team lays down and lets themselves get man-handled on the line of scrimmage.  Anyway, on to Week 15, and with a couple of exceptions, most of these games are complete and utter garbage.  The NFL is lucky it’s the fantasy football playoffs and that there are degenerates like us or a great portion of these games would be unwatchable.

I have alot of work yet to do this week but I've identified a few I will be playing, with the first being a good old fashioned homer pick.

Playing

Dallas -2.5 (Large, with a Hook)

HOMER ALERT: Yes I am a Cowboys fan, but I have talked about 4 Cowboys games and posted three plays on their games, all against them, going 2-1.  I usually fade them, but I really like them in this spot, and I promise this isn't homer glasses talking.  At least I hope.

Reasons:

- First of all, let me state I respect the Giants more than any other team in the league right now.  I respect the way they play football, smashing the ball and intimidating opponents.  I love that they have an old school coach.  If Dallas routinely played with the discipline and the "I'm going to smash your face in" mentality of the Giants, they would be completely and utterly unstoppable.

- Now that I have that out of the way, and made my jealousy known, I am going to state why Dallas wins this game by 7 at a minimum, and possibly double digits.

- We can throw out their last game in Giants stadium, as Brad Johnson turned in one of the worst quarterbacking performances in NFL history and showed all of the poise and moxy of a field mouse.

- Throwing that game out, and examining the prior three matchups of these teams, all with similar rosters with a few exceptions, we see that Dallas has moved the ball very effectively on this Giants defense.  Over the two regular season matchups and the playoff game last year, Dallas averaged over 32 ppg and almost 400 yards against a defense that included Osi and Strahan.  Yes, I realize they choked like a high school girl giving her first BJ in the playoffs, but they still outgained NYG by over 100 yards and moved the ball at will in the first half, until they were caught off guard by Spagnolia just saying "Fuck It" and blitzing the house every single play, causing Romo to fold like a house of cards and start screaming at his lineman.  The Giants laid out a blue print on how to beat Romo, and also tipped their hand at what most certainly will be their strategy this week, as when they tried to play Dallas straight up without pressure Romo completely carved them up.

- So we have established that this Dallas offense is capable of moving the ball on the Giants.  For all of their defensive heroics the Giants are still allowing over 20 ppg and 320 yards on the road this year, not terrible numbers but not exactly lights out either.  At the same time Dallas is putting up 30 a game at home, with the caveat that they have played some weak defenses.  I do not expect Romo to emerge unscathed in this game but I do expect Dallas to put up at least 24-31 points Sunday night.

- The biggest concern with Dallas to their fans has been their defense.  At times earlier this season they were manhandled at the line of scrimmage in a few games, notably against the Redskins and these same Giants when they played in East Rutherford.  I am not putting as much stock in the previous tilt vs NYG as it is tough for a defense to man up and get jacked up to stop the run when they know the offense led by Brad Johnson has zero chance of scoring. 

- My biggest gripe about the Cowboys defense over the years is I think they have been soft at times.  They really impressed me last week, playing like warriors in Pittsburgh when they could have easily laid down.  Bradie James and Jay Ratliff are emerging lately, which is key as the two of them control the A and B gaps being ILB and NT, respectively.  They seem to be playing with much more intensity since Wade took over the defensive reigns. The pass rush is always serviceable when Ware is involved, and as long as Ratliff continues to hold his ground I do not expect the Giants to truck the Cowboys on the ground like they did the last two times.  I'm not saying they completely stop them but it should be contained enough to force Eli to play a solid game, which leads to my next point:

- It is my opinion, and some will disagree, that Eli is the weak spot on this Giants team.  I'm not saying he is a below average quarterback but he is rarely capable of winning games by himself.  If Dallas sells out on the run, against a banged up Jacobs, Eli is going to have to win this game with an average at best group of WR's.  Since Dallas' biggest weakness is their secondary, I do not feel the Cowboys will be exposed as they are against higher octane offenses.  Everybody talked about how the Giants played better without Plax before last week, but that was against tilts against Seattle and Washington, neither of who bring any pressure and give the quarterback an entire month to sit in the pocket and throw the ball.  When Eli is pressured he makes mistakes, and I think Dallas will be bringing it all game.

- You may have noticed I haven't mentioned the "must win" scenario yet.  I am not going to base my play on this as Coughlin teams do not tank and Dallas does not exactly inspire confidence in the "must win" scenario.  Basing a play on this factor would be a mistake, in my opinion.  I am basing my play on Dallas playing better defense, on them having success at least moving the ball historically against this defense, and that they have a major speed advantage at certain spots.  With Jacobs not at 100%, the odds of the Giants completely gashing them are smaller than average, and Dallas does well against the run on the edges, so Ward and Bradshaw may find it to be tough going.  The way to beat Dallas is to run straight at them, and with their defense playing much better I believe this is the final key to the game.

- You may also know I am not mentioning Vegas here.  It does seem odd that an 11-2 team is a dog at an 8-5 team, and I have seen this mentioned already, but I am putting zero stock in this being a "fishy" line. 

- The Bottom Line is I think this is a strong spot for Dallas as it is a huge revenge spot, the Giants are reeling slightly due to the distractions, that it is very tough to sweep a divisional opponent.  Despite their choke job last week, the Cowboys can rout anybody WHEN THEY SHOW UP.  I think they actually do this time.  They better, damn it.  (Had to close with a homer comment)

BOL

Adding

Baltimore -1 Over Pitt (Large)

Quick Hits:

- There is no point in posting defensive or offensive stats.  Its really quite simple, these are the two best defenses in the league and it isn't close.  Statistically the Steelers are better overall but also statistically Baltimore is stronger in their home games.  Neither team is going to have great success moving the ball and this game will be decided by defense, period.  Yes, I am Captain Obvioius.

- Alot of people are talking about how Pitt hasn't won in Baltimore since Bush's first term, which is impressive for Balty but has absolutely nothing to do with my reasoning for this play.  It is a huge game, both teams will be highly motivated, and yes it is tough to sweep a divisional team.  Pitt played a highly emotional game against Dallas last week, which is another classic gambling scenario. Alot are also saying Roethlisburger vs Flacco is a mismatch in favor of Pitt, but Flacco has a higher completion percentage, less INT's, and a higher QB rating than Ben.  Baltimore also rushes for 160 yards per game on the ground at home.  Now that I have all of these classic reasons out of the way let me explain why Balty covers here:

Roethlisburger and Pitt have struggled mightily against pressure defenses this year:

- In a battle of elite defenses, the key will be which offensive line protects which quarterback better, as neither one is good at improvising.  The reason Balty wins is simple: lets examine Pitt's games this year, against the style of defenses they have played, keeping in mind Balty brings blitzes from everyone and from multitple formations, and with fury.

Games Pitt has won this year: vs Houston, Cleveland, Cincy twice, Jacksonville, Washington, San Diego, NE, Balty, and Dallas.  Both Balty and Dallas choked HUGE and gave those games away where Pitt struggled mightily, so Pitt's convincing wins have come against teams that have very little to almost no pass rushing threat.

Games Pitt has lost this year: Philly, Indy, and the Giants, all teams that specialize in pressuring the quarterback.  So what we have is wins against weak pass rushes, and losses in 3 of the 5 games where they faced strong pass rushes, with the two wins having more to do with the other team choking and PItts defense stepping up than anything else.  It was one of Flacco's first road games and I expect him to play with more poise this time around.

The Pattern is clear: Pitt has improved some since earlier in the year but if a defense can get huge pressure on Roethlisburger the game is over.  Baltimore has done a much better job at protecting Flacco which will be absolutely imperative against The Steeler's elite defensive group.  While they will not have a field day I think the Ravens will have more success running on Pitt than most teams have, and that factor combined with the protection factor in their favor gives them a major advantage, especially playing at home.

This is my kind of game, and can't wait to watch it.

BOL everyone.

Homework just getting started, leans for now:

Leans:

ATL -3 Over Tampa:

Not an over-reaction to MNF.  More of a reaction and a trend that Tampa is less than stellar on the road while ATL has been strong at home.  Tampa is beat up after getting destroyed to the tune of 300 yards on the ground.  They could be pissed and will probably play tougher, which is why still a lean.  Revenge and even-ing out divisional spot for ATL.

Oakland +7 Over NE

Not sure if I can play this ugly mutt or not.  If I pull the trigger it will be a fade of NE's travel schedule (two west coast trips in a week), and their defense being banged up.  Oakland is statistically very strong vs the pass but gets obliterated on the ground which takes some of the salt out of their passing ypg allowed stat.  Not sure if I can back this Oakland team vs Belichick or not, but the situation strongly favors the Raiders

Denver +7.5 Over Carolina

Will probably be a play.  Classic sandwhich spot for Panthers coming off a huge MN victory, with the Giants on deck.  I'm not sure I trust Delhomme in a sandwhich spot, and Denver has actually been very strong on the road.  I think Carolina's huge win on a national stage is shading this line at a minimum of a point and a half.

Arizona Over Minnesota (Hey Vegas, give us a fucking line already)

- Unless this line is ridiculous I will be hammering Zona here.  Frerrote is banged up, which explains the line not being released (unless I am really missing something here).  T-Jack on a cross country road trip is huge fade material.  The Vikings secondary will get torched by this offense.  Anything under 7 and I will probably unload.

Jets -7 Over Buffalo

Absolute must have for the Jets and they are due for a bounce back after two atrocious losses.  Favre vs Losman, Jets or no play.

Miami -6.5 Over San Fran

Really love the situation but I am hesitating as Miami failed to cover two bad body clock games vs Oakland and Seattle, and San Fran has the one and only bad body clock win over Buffalo.  The Fish are not a blowout team but I think they give a strong showing here, while Hill is more than due to come down to earth.  Leaning Miami but haven't triggered yet.

More later on this week, thoughts welcomed and appreciated.

Screw it, playing this one now, as the Wise Guys have already pounded Denver enough to remove the hook on 7.

Playing Denver +7.5 (Hook) Over Carolina

*Looks like I was an hour too late on this one.  Damn It.

Anyway, before I get in to my reasoning let me get this out of the way.  This play is more about situations and a hunch rather than basing on stats.  If I was basing this on stats you could surely call me crazy as Denver gives up 177 rushing yards per game on the road, while Carolina averages over 170, a number that was hugely inflated by last nights game.  Normally, I would never, ever make a play against those glaring stats, particularly rushing stats. 

Here is why I'm playing it.

Both of these teams are a gambler's worst nightmare.  Maybe it's just me, but almost without fail they are great one week and atrocious the next.  I'm not just talking about this season, either, this goes back at least three years.  America got to watch the Panthers absolutely obliterate a strong defense in Tampa on a national stage, and I think will be lining up in droves to bet on them, which historically in my opinion means alot of people are in for a serious disappointment.  Denver won last week but played sloppy, which means they are due for a strong showing, and Carolina played lights out, which means they are due for a clunker.  Pretty solid capping huh?

- Anyway, another factor against Carolina, aside from them being a public burning machine, is that this is a sandwich game with the Giants looming on deck.  I am not saying Carolina loses here, but I am confident they will win by less than a TD.  I also think NYG goes down this week, so it is highly possible they will both be 11-3 going into next weeks game which will be of utter importance for Home Field Advantage.  On a short week, against a team from a shit division that is easy to overlook, coming off a huge win vs a hated rival, this spot does not favor Carolina, at least to win by more than a TD.

- Since I have a TD cushion here, I also like my chances with Denver's offense.  Peyton Hillis going down doesn't scare me, as Tatum Bell had great success in this rushing scheme in the not too distant past, and Denver plugs and plays RB's anyway.  Denver averages a staggering 423 yards of offense on the road, which means they are fully capable of matching points with the usually plodding Panthers.  Note: I think the Bucs game was a complete and total aberration, they usually do not light up the board like that.  With a TD cushion I will take a team that can put up points quickly and in bunches, and a QB that throws for over 300 yards per game on the road.

- Some don't like to cap this way but I think it holds relevance that Denver beat the Jets and the Falcons straight up on the road.  Yes, it was a flat spot for the Jets and the Falcons had a look ahead scenario against these same Panthers, but Carolina is also faced with a potential flat spot and a lookahead factor as well.

- Its clear that I am basing this purely on the situation so I will stop hammering the point.  Bottom line, I will take Cutler vs Delhomme with more than a TD any day, and at least once on Sunday, this Sunday.  No Motivational edge as a Denver win locks up their division with a win. 

- I am slightly worried that San Diego is playing early, and if they somehow lose to the Chiefs, Denver will already have it locked up and may tank.  So lets hope the Bolts roll which will allow Denver to maintain focus.  Thought I would point that out as a potential Moose Factor.

 Final bottom line:  I will never lay more than a TD with Delhomme unless they are playing a bottom 5 team.

BOL

Denver's run defense sucks. Carolina wins when they can establish the run game. Although I'm not sure they'll cover, I wouldn't bet on the broncos. Oh and one other thing to keep in mind is carolina averages 29.1 points at home.

You are correct about the run factor, one of the first things I pointed out and my biggest fear of the game.  Regarding Carolina's points, Denver also puts up 27 on the road, so I like my chances with a TD differential.

Hans, love the write ups...  Truly some great insight.  I like your plays and leans...  Good luck bro

Big Hans nice info,selections without why mean nothing to me..Be careful with Oakland...Patriots never went home...5 of 6 teams who played on thanksgiving covered the spread..dallas late fold only loss...Houston live dog versus Tenn  sunday  peak ahead for  the Titans....pitt on deck  ..

I do like to roll the dice, that is for sure.  We might disagree but I really like the Ravens in this spot.

Leaning Bears, will have it posted before tomorrow.  Definetly not a big money play.

Yeah I'm not sure about Oakland either.  I'm trying real hard to find some dogs as I think alot of these games points to the favs, which scares the shit out of me.  It sounds like Cassell's dad just passed away, very tough to tell how he will respond to that, I know I would be in the tank for sure.

As far as the Texans go, I really don't like that game and may stay away.  The last time Houston faced a smash mouth team they got destroyed by Baltimore.  The Titans should own them on the line of scrimmage but I really fear a tank factor here, regardless of what Fisher says.

BOL