Trends & Things week 13 2008 NFL

Down the stretch we go and here is the update after 12 weeks of play >>>

It was a week of favorites and overs punctuated ny not one , but 2 DD favorites that covered the spread this week ...breaking that trend ...

The Pattern for TNF , SNF , & MNF continues though as illustrated in this thread .>>>

 

What do you think based on your study for Week 13?

 

Any suggestions on TNF/SNF/MNF...

Results for Thansgiving games last 2 years >>>

 

 

Green Bay @ Detroit + 3.5 ( 47 ) 

Fav / Over

 

NYJets @ Dallas - 14.5 ( 48 ) 

Dallas 34-3   

Fav / Under

 

Indianapolis  @ Atlanta + 13.5 ( 42 ) 

Fav / Over

 

 

Miami  @ Detroit + 3 ( 40.5 )

Miami 27-10 

 

Tampa Bay @ Dallas - 12.5 ( 39 )

Dallas 38-10  

Fav / Over

 

Denver @ KC - 1 ( 39 )

KC 19-10   

Fav / Under

 

 

 

 

 

from Nick Bogdanovich

Lets dont forget the road favs are covering at a 67% clip this year so far & the road favs are 10-1-1 ats last 3 weeks.

Smart $

11/26 3:26 P

(409) 11/30 Play on Kansas City Chiefs (3+106)

Catalina (13-8,+4.43)

A poster had these brief comments about his favorites picks with corresponding trends :

 

‘Under’ 45.0 Indianapolis at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)
We've seen what the Colts offense looks like without Jeff Saturday at center and it wasn't pretty. We've also seen what the Cleveland offense looks like with Derek Anderson under center this season and that wasn't pretty either. The 'under' is 12-5 in Cleveland's last 17 games and I think that this game will end up looking a lot like Cleveland's effort last week against Houston.

#392 Buffalo (-7) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)
The roller coaster season of Buffalo continues. But I think that their home field and the bitter cold weather of Upstate New York will do the trick against a Niners team that, outside of a close call at Arizona, have looked soft on the road. Buffalo has covered four of five in this series and if they play with the same type of fire and aggressiveness this week that they brought to Arrowhead last week they will win this one going away. The Bills are a good "bad" team, going 24-6 ATS in their last 30 games against a team with a losing record.

A writeup by a fellow poster regarding the SF-Buffalo game :

to have an alternate view >>>

The Sports Crunchers' Week #13 Write Ups

 

The Bills broke a 4-game slide with a victory over the Chiefs last week – a reason for renewed hope? Yes and no. The return of Josh Reed at WR helped Trent Edwards to his career best passing day, but then again, it was against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Still, Trent Edwards was happy to take something positive away from a game for once, regardless of how it came. Their running game was so-so, with Marshawn Lynch averaging just under 4 yards per carry versus an extremely poor run defense.

Defensively, the only thing they did right was get 5 turnovers. They gave up 462 yards to a Chiefs’ offense that only learned how to do anything successfully a mere month ago. Without those turnovers the Bills are probable losers as they were outgained by the Chiefs. It was a good day for rookie CB Leodis McKelvin who had to fill in for the injured Jabari Greer. Coach Jauron has been hesitant to start McKelvin before, but had little choice here, and McKelvin had two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. McKelvin also had a kickoff return for a touchdown 2 weeks ago versus Cleveland. Leodis was the 11^th overall pick out of Troy last year. I wonder if anyone has ever been drafted in the top 10 out of Troy? The Bills run defense gave up 159 yards on only 13 carries as Larry Johnson busted off a 63 yarder.

The Bills have given up an average of 157 yards rushing over their last 3 games, all to teams that are pretty good at running the ball. The 49ers are only ranked a little lower in rush offense than the Bills’ past 3 opponents, in small part due to the horrendous day the 49ers had running the ball versus Dallas last week. The 49ers should rebound on the ground and also go for over a hundred yards rushing versus the Bills. As the Bills top defensive priority will be stopping Frank Gore, 49er QB Shaun Hill should find himself with little pressure in the pocket except for on obvious passing downs, which is when the Bills like to stand up out of their stance and wave their arms about crazily in an effort to intimidate opposing offenses. Mostly it’s just for show, though, as the Bills are 29^th in the league in sacks per pass plays defensed, and 19^th in pass defense. Shaun Hill is a pretty cool cat that can hang in the pocket and deliver the ball anyway.

49ers’ CB Nate Clements had a horrible day defensively guarding Terrell Owens last week. Clements, a high-priced CB, is supposed to be able to hold his own versus any top receiver, but got burned on 3 big plays where the play call didn’t have him jamming Terrell at the line of scrimmage. Clements has typically been a guy that likes to play off the receiver and bait the quarterback into throwing his way. In Buffalo he did that a lot simply because he was playing in a weak secondary where he felt more harm would be done if he guarded his man tightly, forcing the QB to throw against weaker parts of the secondary. I don’t know if it’s the luck of the bounce or what, but the 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the league this year at getting interceptions. I have a feeling they’ll get one or two off of Edwards this week, though. Edwards didn’t throw any picks after throwing 3 in the first half versus Cleveland the week before. He is often guilty of staring down his receivers, which could easily lead to some picks versus experienced route-hopping CBs Clements and Harris. Edwards figures to be in numerous obvious passing downs this game as the 49ers’ 8^th ranked run defense should keep the Bills’ 27^th ranked run offense in check on many plays.

In summary, the 49ers, because of the big edge they have in the running game, will find the passing lanes and pass rush far more open than the Bills will, propelling them to a road victory versus a Bills team primed to continue it’s backsliding after a one week respite versus the Chiefs.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 23 – Bills 21

I have kept track of DD favorites this year ...

Here is a comment on the subject by Steve Makinen ....

 

 

 

With that thought in mind , let's look at this week ...

We have 2 double-digit favorites laying that chalk  this Thanksgiving >>>

Dallas & Tennessee

 

Dallas is averaging 24.1 points per game

Tennessee is averaging 23.4 points per game

 

Of course these teams are playing 2 of the least scoring teams in Seattle averaging 18.8 points per game and Detroit averaging even less in 17.5 points per game .

 

Tennessee's margin of victory on the road this season has been 12.2 points per game , while averaging 23.2 points per game on these road games .

Detroit's has been outscored by 20 points per game on average on their own turf this season.

Detroit has averaged 16.6 points per game in all their home games this season .

Unfortunately , for Detroit , Tennessee has only allowed on average 11 points per game on the road .

The Over/ Under of 44 set by the oddsmakers....

It is reasonable to believe Detroit scores no more than their average in this matchup . Let's set this number at 17 . Tennessee would then have to score 28 points to match the spread . A # above their average , but certainly achievable vs Detroit's horrid defense ...

Let's call the final score though 27-17 and a  moral victory for the Lions on this Thansgiving day . Or how about 31-13 ...for you Tennessee backers . Either way , I don't see much value in the Over.

 

Seattle has averaged a wooping 15.8 points per game on the road this season while giving up 26.4 in those same games . Dallas is averaging 28.8 points at home ( including the Romo-less games )

The Cowboys have also given up 23.2 ppg at home .

While Dallas is averaging and Seatle is giving up is about the same , so let's give the Cowboys their 28 points and Let's say Seattle gets 17 ...

Final score Dallas 28-17

 

 

 

Starting in game 6 ..>>>

 

 

Week 13 : Tampa Bay - 4

 

" The Saints lead the NFL in total offense (411.9 yards per game) and are fourth in scoring (28.8 points per game), and should have the explosive Reggie Bush back after he missed the last four games since arthroscopic knee surgery.

"I'm definitely a go this week," Bush said after Wednesday's practice, even though he did not participate fully. "I know I said that last week, but it's definitely a go this week. ... I felt great. It's the best it's felt."

Bush had 51 rushing yards and 112 receiving yards in the season opener against the Bucs.

Brees had another outstanding game on Monday, as he was 20-of-26 for 323 yards, four touchdowns and a career-high 157.5 quarterback rating. He has 3,574 yards passing, and is on pace to break Dan Marino's 1984 record of 5,084 yards passing in a season.

Brees picked apart a Packers secondary that came in ranked third in the NFL (176.3 ypg), and faces a Bucs team that is second in the league in pass defense (174.6 ypg) and has allowed an average of just 117.2 passing yards in its last five games.

This was not a problem for Brees in the season opener, though, as he completed 23-of-32 passes for 343 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Since signing with the Saints in 2006, Brees has thrown for 1,267 yards, 10 touchdowns and two picks in six games versus Tampa Bay.

Brees has had trouble finding his rhythm on the road, though, as he has thrown five touchdown passes and seven interceptions in five road games compared to 17 TD passes and four picks in five home games.

The Saints have also struggled on the road, as they opened the season with four straight road losses before a 30-20 win at Kansas City on Nov. 16.

The Bucs have had no trouble defending their home field, going 5-0 at Raymond James Stadium for the first time in franchise history.

Tampa Bay is led by a defense that is third in the league in scoring (16.4 ppg) and fourth in total defense (288.9 ypg). The Bucs have allowed 417 total yards in their last two games, and forced three turnovers in last Sunday's comeback win over the Lions.

Tampa Bay trailed Detroit 17-0 after the first quarter, before rallying for five unanswered touchdowns.

"We don't seem to make it easy on ourself and it's not always pretty," said Jeff Garcia, who passed for 165 yards and two TDs. "But we find ways to do it."

Garcia has been another reason for the Bucs' success, as the team is 5-1 since he regained the starting job he lost after a poor performance in the season opener. At the Superdome on Sept. 7, Garcia led just one scoring drive, and finished 24-of-41 for 221 yards, one touchdown and one interception. In seven career games against the Saints, Garcia has thrown for 1,821 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions.

The Bucs swept the season series in 2007 and 2005 after losing both meetings in 2006."

Thanksgiving NFL Football Feast
Doug Upstone

Many are clamoring to have the Detroit Lions not play on Thanksgiving. Why, because the Lions are terrible, have been and will be for the foreseeable future. But this country needs traditions, things that we can count on, not changing everything for the sake of change. If you don’t like the game, here is a thought, don’t watch it and talk to your family or relatives. Enjoy the company of another; just don’t whine about the Detroit Lions. In fact to make it more interesting, bet the game or have everybody at the house pick a side with the spread, it’s sure to add to the camaraderie of the day rooting for certain teams.   

Tennessee at Detroit (Lions +11, 44.5)

Dating back to 1934, the Lions have been a proud part of the American celebration of Thanksgiving Day. They’ve played 68 games on the national Holiday and take a 33-33-2 record into this year’s contest against Tennessee. Detroit (4-7 ATS) has dropped four straight on the fourth Thursday of November while being outscored by a lopsided 121-50 margin, yet even worse is the fact it has lost 12 in a row and 17 of 18 on Sundays.

Combine the Lions 0-11 start to 2008 with the Titans 10-1 (9-1-1 ATS) mark and the NFL nearly had the setting for the perfect storm at Ford Field. But even if Tennessee enters the stadium under a ladder, breaks a mirror in the locker room and spills the salt during its pre-game turkey meal with extra tryptophan, it should feast on a team that last celebrated a win before the holidays in ‘07. The Titans have won and covered their last seven games on the road.

After losing to the Jets, 34-13, the Titans need a few more wins to wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now that veteran quarterback Kerry Collins has shown he can win games for Tennessee—like he did in Weeks 10 and 11 in Chicago and Jacksonville—it’s hard to find something to knock. The offense is balanced, the defense is smothering and the special teams are pretty special. The appearance of the Jets loss was New York just wanted it more and was set up to beat them literally at their own game. Tennessee is still a delectable 25-10-2 ATS versus the NFC.

Collins, whose been sacked six times in 310 pass attempts, has only nine touchdowns but five came in the last three games. It took him eight starts to throw for 200 yards in a game, but it’s rarely a necessity with a backfield tandem of LenDale White (11 touchdowns) and Chris Johnson (833 yards, five scores) and a defense allowing 15.0 points per game. Though when the Bears and Jaguars shut the running game down, Collins delivered.

While Tennessee is fully loaded, Detroit has a couple of budding stars capable of turning the franchise around a season or two down the road. Second-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson is developing a knack for big plays but can stand to be more consistent. He’s got six touchdowns in the last seven games and six receptions of at least 40 yards on the year. In addition, rookie running back Kevin Smith has 294 yards in the last three games after totaling 305 in the first eight. If you want an upside, The Lions are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.

Bodoglife.com has the Lions on the receiving end of 11.5-points with a total of 44. Detroit is on a run for four straight Over’s and is 7-0 OVER after five or more consecutive losses.

Thanksgiving Tasty Angle- Thursday home underdogs of 7.5 or more points are worse than overcooked sweet potatoes at 2-8-1 ATS.

Seattle at Dallas (Cowboys -12.5, 47)

After meeting in a memorable NFC wild-card playoff game in 2006, the Cowboys and Seahawks each captured a division title last season with a combined 23 victories. But neither has defended it well, and in Seattle’s case the playoffs haven’t even been on the radar from the opening kickoff of head coach Mike Holmgren’s final year at the helm.

This season will mark the first since 2002 that the Seahawks don’t finish atop the NFC West and the first since ’01 they’ll be playoffs spectators. Seattle opened with a 24-point defeat in Buffalo and never really sniffed .500 all season. At 2-9 and 4-6-1 ATS, the Seahawks are likely to finish with their worst record since 1992 when they went 2-14 and set a league mark for offensive futility with 140 points. This year’s scoring unit isn’t that awful, scoring 18.8 points per game. Yet, when your only wins on the season are against NFC West foes St. Louis and San Francisco, it’s obvious the season has been a painful endeavor. The team formally known as “the Seabags” is 0-7 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game over the last two years.

Defensively, Seattle has been torched time and again and will have a hard time keeping the Cowboys out of the end zone. Opponents have outgained the Seahawks by a hefty 130 yards a game (151 YPG on the road), with the majority of the difference coming through the air. Tony Romo should be all smiles working against a defense that’s yielded nearly 3,000 yards passing with only five interceptions. Seattle picked off 20 passes in 2007. Seattle is 6-14-1 ATS as non-division away underdogs.

In his second game back from a broken finger, Romo threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns to lead a 35-22 victory over San Francisco that allowed Dallas to keep pace in the playoff race. The positive vibe emitting from the Cowboys locker room is that of Terrell Owens, who got is quarterback back, with seven catches for 213 yards to help Dallas. Owens' total was the second-most of his career, behind only the 283 yards he had in the 2000 game in which he caught an NFL-record 20 passes. Facing the league’s next to last pass defense should make T.O’s face light-up more than a bite of fresh pumpkin pie. The Boys are 8-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 since 2006.

The Dallas defense could have a feast of there own against the sinking Seattle offense. The Seattle offensive line could not move a dish of mashed potatoes, let alone the Cowboys defense. The term “jailbreak” could come up more often than the size of this year’s bird. Dallas is 19-6 ATS in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging 285 or fewer yards per game. 

The Seahawks haven’t played on Thanksgiving since 1986 when they defeated Dallas 31-14. Including the playoff game a few years back, the Cowboys lead the all-time series 6-5. Soon to be defunct head coach mike Holmgren has seen his Seattle team post 10-21 ATS record vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt.

Thanksgiving Tasty Angle- Home teams that were favorites by six or more in prior game are 11-3 ATS on Thursday’s.

Arizona at Philadelphia (Eagles -3, 46.5)

Limping into Thanksgiving after losing by 29 points in Baltimore and enduring the embarrassment of tying lowly Cincinnati, Philadelphia now has to pull itself together and slow down a former NFC East rival in Arizona. Coming up on the losing end would finish off any playoff hopes for the second straight season.

It’s a shame most folks do not have the NFL Network, since the Cardinals possess a high-flying offense that boasts an MVP candidate in Kurt Warner, who’s on pace to throw for more than 5,000 yards. Warner’s already at 3,506 yards and has thrown 21 touchdowns, including 11 to Anquan Boldin and six to Larry Fitzgerald. He has recorded seven 300-yard passing games, including five in a row. This group is #3 in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game. Despite the offense, the Redbirds have to overcome being 9-20 ATS as road dogs after SU and cover defeat.

Although he has struggled to get going since taking over the starting job in Week 9, running back Tim Hightower has been punishing in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He scored twice in last week’s 37-29 loss to the New York Giants and has nine touchdowns in 106 attempts.

For all the acclaim the offense receives, Arizona has been effective in slowing down the run. Led by linebackers Karlos Dansby and Gerald Hayes, the squad has allowed fewer than 90 yards rushing per game and eight rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals are in potentially tough spot against a burdened opponent off a loss and they scored less than 22 points, with 6-20 ATS record.

The aforementioned 13-13 tie put the Eagles in a corner and has forced head coach Andy Reid’s team to win in hostile environments like New York and Washington. The last time Philadelphia was at Lincoln Financial Field it allowed an astounding 401 total yards to the Giants, 219 of which were on the ground.

Donovan McNabb may lead one of the league’s top passing attacks (255 yards per game) but he was benched last week after coughing up the ball three times in the first half. McNabb completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes against the Giants, Bengals and Ravens and has cooled off since the Week 7 bye. Coach Andy Reid has said McNabb would start, yet one has to wonder if that is byproduct of short week rather than preference. Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS since 2003 after scoring 10 or less points.

Rookie wideout DeSean Jackson has been a nice addition with a team-leading 47 receptions for 699 yards but has only one touchdown catch. Throw in the fact that no other receiver has more than 30 receptions, and you see why the team has been in a rut. Even Brian Westbrook (34 grabs) has been stymied, for a team that is 0-7 ATS off consecutive road games.

The NFL Network will have this NFC contest for everyone who is stuffed and had their nap starting at 8:15 Eastern.

Thanksgiving Dessert Angle- If both teams were underdogs in last game, the home teams is 7-3 ATS and the UNDER is 7-3.