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Atlanta only laying three to the Raiders?!?

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Posted: #1
Home or not that line looks suspicious to me. Early reports from Waltersfootball have 99% of the bets on Atlanta. Is this a trap or am I overreacting? All other lines looked solid to me.
 
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Posted: #2
 Oakland is gonna win. These two teams are the same in my eyes. Rookie QB's and solid "D's". Gonna be just like Mia/Buff last week. Wait for the line to get to 3.5 although......
 
 
 
Shhhhh with all the noise though. Sometimes you have to keep the goodies too yourself!!!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #3
At pinnacle:
 
 
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Posted: #4
Good poinst Wussie, LOL. I still bet we see all sorts of posts on Atlanta just like we did on the Bills last week. Money the juice on those two options says it all. Sneaky way of pushing people even further to ATL but another tipoff nonetheless.
 
Other than maybe the Longhorns ML I think this looks like the best bet of the week.
 
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Posted: #5
only 3? since when has a road team been consistently good at all this year.
 
that being said, i was all over Miami but i don't know if i will be all over Oakland after the way Atlanta played Philadelphia, i really think this could be one of the 2 times out of 10 games that the stinky line isn't stinky
 
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Posted: #6
from the looks of it, it will  bet  oak 2.5 soon or they will leave it at 3 and make it like   -3 (-135)
 
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Posted: #7
you gotta be kidding me with this trap stuff again.  C'mon, how good do you think Atlanta is, especially on the road.  Matt Ryan is a great QB but he is still a rookie, on the road against the a decent defense like the Raiders.  BTW, the Raiders is a good rushing team and I don't think Atlanta is that great in stopping the run, especially on the road.  Look what Westbrook did to them.


 
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Posted: #8
You said the same thing about Miami not beating Buffalo. Atlanta just had a good effort against a very good team, much closer than the score showed. They have beaten Green Bay in Green Bay. How is that for proving they can win on the road?  They have twice as many wins as the Raiders and everyone thinks they have a much, much better QB in a QB driven league. The high point of the Raiders' season is squeeking past a gimpy Farve, who could barely beat the Chiefs and Thigpen today. With Atlanta there is hope but to get hopeful about Oakland you would need hard drugs first. Probably mixed together.
 
To me this line to me looks more engineered to get as many bets as possible on the Falcons as opposed to one that would get even action.
 
Ever since I started looking for tricks like this I have not missed yet. 4-0 last two weeks on Green Bay and Oakland then Houston and Miami. Lines that seem to be predicting upsets and Oakland keeping it close against Atlanta qualifies as an upset in my mind. (Green Bay over Indy did not but most people disagreed with me)
 
The pick might lose but it would take a couple of losses for me to stop beleiving there is something to this philosophy.
 
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Posted: #9
Couple of things going against Atlanta. 

Dome team playing on Grass.  East Coast team travelling to west coast. 

I took Raiders against Jets (Favre factor made it easy), but I'll have to think about this one.
 
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Posted: #10
Atlanta is much improved on defense this season, a welcome surprise to us Falcon fans... But they have no depth at all.... The loss of a couple of defense players will hurt them next week. Most important loss is probably going to be defensive end Jamaal Anderson who suffered a concussion against Philadelphia. Now, we don't know if he will be out for the game, but the coaches were not optimistic in their press conference yesterday...  I would want to see if he plays before I make a play here.
 
Yes Ryan is a rookie; but he doesn't play like one... he makes better reads than a lot of "veteran" quarterbacks in this league. You know the ones, playing on thier 3-4th teams, never were, never will be a real NFL QB... sure he makes mistakes, but so do probowl QB's... But he is very accurate and he has a rifle... and finally he has a WR, Roddy White is finally living up to potential... Ryan is a big ADVANTAGE in this matchip... so is RB Turner..
 
Regarding the money action on this game... any numbers you are seeing now are totally meaningless.... Frankly I don't see that OAK +3 is any kind of gift here IMHO
 
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Posted: #11
I just started this,so I really don't have a system but the one I am tring agree with you b.p.I see Jacksonville covering,Arizona ovov St. Louis,Miami ov Denver,Phila ov Seattle and Houston taken Minnesota & Baltimore taken Cleveland but  when I looked at the spread cleveland is giving up one.Since you guys are on the book maker tring to trick the public. This game is one to look at.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by richardtonsj:

you gotta be kidding me with this trap stuff again.  C'mon, how good do you think Atlanta is, especially on the road.  Matt Ryan is a great QB but he is still a rookie, on the road against the a decent defense like the Raiders.  BTW, the Raiders is a good rushing team and I don't think Atlanta is that great in stopping the run, especially on the road.  Look what Westbrook did to them.



I agree with this sentiment.  There is nothing fishy about this line IMO.
 
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Posted: #13
C'mon skinsnut, weren't you the one who predicted Oakland would beat the Jets?..Talk me into this(Raiders), cause somethings not right
Bet with your wallet not your heart
 
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Posted: #14
If the line did not tip you guys off, or the one sided action and movement back to -2.5 in some places, then the juice should have. This line is screaming, "The worst you can do is push and the odds are awesome! Buy now!"
 
But I am done mentioning it. People are going to doubt anyway and I don't want to jinx it. I think this philosophy works but you have to pick the right games. I had to look pretty hard at this weeks lines to find it but at this point I am pretty certain this is the week's main or only public trap. In fact to me this is the most suspicious line I have seen yet because of the juice aspect, even over Miami being favored over Buffalo at the end of last week or the Jets only laying three to the Raiders...
 
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Posted: #15
<<<<<<< There is no such thing as a trap. It only exists in one's mind. Like Santa Claus and the Great Pumpkin and the Easter Freakin' Bunny. After the age of 7 or 8, these fantasies -- which our parents allow to exist because they are relatively harmless at that age -- tend to disappear with maturity. After 7 years of betting football, a bettor's belief in "traps" tends to disappear as his game matures and he catches on to the perpetual ruse.
 
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Posted: #16
The Raiders are a different team at home Russell plays much better with the home crowd and the defense usually puts up a good fight (except Denver Game) Buy the 1/2 point and the the Raiders
 
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Posted: #17
if you want to talk about fishy lines talk about pats +6 at indy..???
 
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Posted: #18
Take the 'Dirty Birds'
They have better coaching and the better QB
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Qb4011:

if you want to talk about fishy lines talk about pats +6 at indy..???

Oh I agree sir. I think that line is trap city as well. I will be on Indy once the early games end, even though I will have to hold my nose to do it. (unless for some reason the public goes nuts for Indy again, but I seriously doubt it!!)

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by theroman:

The Raiders are a different team at home Russell plays much better with the home crowd and the defense usually puts up a good fight (except Denver Game) Buy the 1/2 point and the the Raiders

They wouldn't let me buy the half point! Tipoff number 5!

 
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Posted: #21
One final thing: Was wrong that other lines look solid.
 
Suspicious lines in my eyes:
 
Arizona only laying 3 to the Rams.
 
Atlanta only laying three to the Raidersw with horrible juice at that.
 
Green Bay getting only five against the hottest team in football at home. (but betting this more because I expect this upset)
 
Seattle getting less points even as the public pounds the Eagles. (even though if the public has to win I think this is the one)
 
 
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Posted: #22
Someone said earlier that these teams are about the same and cited rookie QB's.  These QBs have roughly the same amount on NFL experience, but there is no comparison right now between Russell and Ryan.  None.  Ryan reads defenses 10 times better than Russell.  The edge at QB in this game is clearly with the Falcons.
 
That being said, this is the kind of game where laying the 3 seems like an easy play, and then you get burned.  The Falcons should win this game, but maybe they don't cover that spread.  In any case it looks like one to avoid to me.  
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