two teams with a similar strategy. play defense, run the ball well and limit your qb mistakes. both teams with lots of success early in the season. it should be a close game and the edge goes to tennessee with more experience offensively, better coaching. 2.5+ dogs after monday overtime are 0-10 straight up. tennessee should take advantge of baltimore's physicall game vs pittsburgh last week and win it. however, baltimore defense is impressive and can do miracles at home. lean:none.
seattle @ giants play: SEATTLE +7
seattle gets back two key offensive weapons in branch and engram and the rest also helped them get healthier and refocused after a 1-2 start. never easy for a west coast team to play an early east coast game but i believe there is a sense of urgence in seattle. 1-3 would be a horrible start for them. the giants seems to be back to their 2007 edition when they were playing much better on the road than they did at home. they are in a 1-4 su and 1-8 ats group of teams according to my ratings, just like jacksonville last week against houston (-7 fave won by 3 in OT).the giants are 0-2 su and ats in last 2 as -4/-7.5 home fave vs a team with less wins.
washington @ philladelphia
very high line for a team that lost to chicago last week against a team that won at dallas. washington was impressive in first 4 games but this is the taughest division in football and it is not easy to win two in a row, both on the road. the eagles play a different style of football and unlike dallas, they can defend. washington is ranked a lot better than the eagles according to my ratings and the dogs in this spot are just 1-7 su and ats this season with washington being the biggest dog of them all, with kc when they played at atlanta. philly should win but i'don't recommend laying this many points. lean:none
san diego @ miami
talent wise, this one should not be close. but the same was expected when miami faced new england. according to my ratings, san diego is (by far) the biggest road favorite of all teams that are ranked less than 17 places better than the home team. the closest ones were 3 pts faves. bad weather expected in miami and thats the major reason why i have no lean in this game. btw, teams off bye that won as dd dogs before bye are 6-0 su/ats as home faves but 0-1 as home dogs.
chicago @ detroit play: DETROIT +3.5
chicago favored by only 3.5 is the second fishiest line this week. they have the highest ratings differential for a road team laying such a small number this season. usually road teams ranked over 20 places better are laying a lot more points, see buffalo last week. the total is suspiciously high as well, drawing tons of money on the under. that's very fishy as well. winless teams with 3+losses after bye are 21-3-1 ats as underdogs. road faves of -3.5 after a home dog win are 0-8 ats. 2-2 teams are 8-21 ats when favored by -3/-5.5. i belive this will be a fresh start for detroit. the division is stil up for the grabs and with a week off to prepare, they could pull an upset here against a chicago team that won an emotional, nationally televized home dog game last week.
atlanta @ green bay
the public was all over green bay when the line was 7.5 and they like green bay even more as 3.5 faves. rodgers is game time decision but the line suggest that he may not be playing. i will totally ignore this game because i don't like guessing games but for those who like long-term systems, here is one that has been money for a long time. road dogs after a road dog loss are 96-52 ats against teams after a road dog loss. lean: none.
indianapolis @ houston lean: HOUSTON +3.5
this is by far the fishiest line this week if you look at it without checking any ratings and if you base your opinion on records and public perception. the colts after a bye, laying basically only a fg against a 0-3 houston team. the public is all over the colts and thats as natural of a reaction as they come. according to my ratings this line is pretty accurate and with all the public support for the colts, it remainds me a lot to that dtroit -3 line at atlanta in week 1. almost identical data, and even bigger public support for the fave. detroit lost that game big and no other road fave has been involved in anything close to that, until now. the total looks very high as well, but even with such a high total, there is stil more money on the over. everything is fishy with this line. for system lovers: dogs after overtime are 17-4 ats (9-0 ats after road ot) against a team off bye. 1-2 teams vs winless teams are 6-14 ats in last 20. lean: houston +3.5
kansas city @ carolina lean: KANSAS CITY +10 *B*
the 'over' bettors like this one and it is natural with two teams that scored a big chunk of points last week, and a total in the 30's. i believe that this total and this public reaction is going in kc favor. despite beating denver last week, many people stil think that they are the worst team inf ootball. but be always carefull with 1-3 teams. these teams are always desperate and often cover the spread. i don't like that they are road dogs after a home dog win, playing against a team that won as home favorite, as these teams tend to lose outright at a very high %, but to keep in within the number, i think they are capable of doing that. according to my ratings vs vegas line, carolina is in a 3-4 su and 1-7 ats spot this week. lean: kc
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tenn @ baltimore
two teams with a similar strategy. play defense, run the ball well and limit your qb mistakes. both teams with lots of success early in the season. it should be a close game and the edge goes to tennessee with more experience offensively, better coaching. 2.5+ dogs after monday overtime are 0-10 straight up. tennessee should take advantge of baltimore's physicall game vs pittsburgh last week and win it. however, baltimore defense is impressive and can do miracles at home. lean:none.
seattle @ giants play: SEATTLE +7
seattle gets back two key offensive weapons in branch and engram and the rest also helped them get healthier and refocused after a 1-2 start. never easy for a west coast team to play an early east coast game but i believe there is a sense of urgence in seattle. 1-3 would be a horrible start for them. the giants seems to be back to their 2007 edition when they were playing much better on the road than they did at home. they are in a 1-4 su and 1-8 ats group of teams according to my ratings, just like jacksonville last week against houston (-7 fave won by 3 in OT).the giants are 0-2 su and ats in last 2 as -4/-7.5 home fave vs a team with less wins.
washington @ philladelphia
very high line for a team that lost to chicago last week against a team that won at dallas. washington was impressive in first 4 games but this is the taughest division in football and it is not easy to win two in a row, both on the road. the eagles play a different style of football and unlike dallas, they can defend. washington is ranked a lot better than the eagles according to my ratings and the dogs in this spot are just 1-7 su and ats this season with washington being the biggest dog of them all, with kc when they played at atlanta. philly should win but i'don't recommend laying this many points. lean:none
san diego @ miami
talent wise, this one should not be close. but the same was expected when miami faced new england. according to my ratings, san diego is (by far) the biggest road favorite of all teams that are ranked less than 17 places better than the home team. the closest ones were 3 pts faves. bad weather expected in miami and thats the major reason why i have no lean in this game. btw, teams off bye that won as dd dogs before bye are 6-0 su/ats as home faves but 0-1 as home dogs.
chicago @ detroit play: DETROIT +3.5
chicago favored by only 3.5 is the second fishiest line this week. they have the highest ratings differential for a road team laying such a small number this season. usually road teams ranked over 20 places better are laying a lot more points, see buffalo last week. the total is suspiciously high as well, drawing tons of money on the under. that's very fishy as well. winless teams with 3+losses after bye are 21-3-1 ats as underdogs. road faves of -3.5 after a home dog win are 0-8 ats. 2-2 teams are 8-21 ats when favored by -3/-5.5. i belive this will be a fresh start for detroit. the division is stil up for the grabs and with a week off to prepare, they could pull an upset here against a chicago team that won an emotional, nationally televized home dog game last week.
atlanta @ green bay
the public was all over green bay when the line was 7.5 and they like green bay even more as 3.5 faves. rodgers is game time decision but the line suggest that he may not be playing. i will totally ignore this game because i don't like guessing games but for those who like long-term systems, here is one that has been money for a long time. road dogs after a road dog loss are 96-52 ats against teams after a road dog loss. lean: none.
indianapolis @ houston lean: HOUSTON +3.5
this is by far the fishiest line this week if you look at it without checking any ratings and if you base your opinion on records and public perception. the colts after a bye, laying basically only a fg against a 0-3 houston team. the public is all over the colts and thats as natural of a reaction as they come. according to my ratings this line is pretty accurate and with all the public support for the colts, it remainds me a lot to that dtroit -3 line at atlanta in week 1. almost identical data, and even bigger public support for the fave. detroit lost that game big and no other road fave has been involved in anything close to that, until now. the total looks very high as well, but even with such a high total, there is stil more money on the over. everything is fishy with this line. for system lovers: dogs after overtime are 17-4 ats (9-0 ats after road ot) against a team off bye. 1-2 teams vs winless teams are 6-14 ats in last 20. lean: houston +3.5
kansas city @ carolina lean: KANSAS CITY +10 *B*
the 'over' bettors like this one and it is natural with two teams that scored a big chunk of points last week, and a total in the 30's. i believe that this total and this public reaction is going in kc favor. despite beating denver last week, many people stil think that they are the worst team inf ootball. but be always carefull with 1-3 teams. these teams are always desperate and often cover the spread. i don't like that they are road dogs after a home dog win, playing against a team that won as home favorite, as these teams tend to lose outright at a very high %, but to keep in within the number, i think they are capable of doing that. according to my ratings vs vegas line, carolina is in a 3-4 su and 1-7 ats spot this week. lean: kc
another somewhat fishy line with two teams with the identical records and the home team favored by the home field advantage. after denver's loss to kc last week and tb win against gb, the line is very accurate. the public might think that denver should be favored by more, hence a big public support for the home team. in reality, denver will probably win by 3. tampa is in a group of road dogs ranked better than the opponent that is 1-8 so far this season according to my ratings and they were in this same spot in week 1 vs new orleans. they lost that game, but just barely, and i expect more of the same here. tampa bay is 11-2 ats in last 13 on the road vs teams with same # of wins and denver is 0-6-2 ats in last 8 at home vs same number of wins. lean:none
buffalo @ arizona play: ARIZONA -1
arizona is comming off of their ugly loss to the jets, they lost their best reciever, and they are favored against a 4-0 team that impresses everyone right now. buffalo is in the same 1-8 group as tampa this week and they are also public dog, something that tampa is not. they are in the exact same situation as green bay last week when they lost to tampa bay. arizona is 9-0 su and ats in last 9 when at pk or favored at home vs teams with more wins. last two games in this situation came vs detroit and cleveland last season. 4-0 teams are 3-12 su as road dogs in last 15 and road dogs after a road fave win are 5-19 su in last 24 against teams off a road dog loss. the public is in love with the over and that's also something that goes in arizona favor.
new england at san francisco
gotta belive that a rested veteran new england team, that is well coached, will find a way to win this one againt the sf 49ers who were exposed in new orleans last week. i don't think it is going to be easy but new england is 17-2 in last 19 on the road and san francisco is 0-7 at home vs teams with same # of wins. new england lost a lot of their public support after brady injury and especially after their loss to miami. they should win this one but i have hard time beliveing that it will be a blowout. probably a close game with a 3-6 pts new england win. lean:none
cincinnati @ dallas
the line is inflated a little bit as the linemakers expect dallas to come back strong this week after their bad loss to washington last week. the linemakers are probably right as dallas should win by double digits here. however, a backdoor by cincy is not out of question. lean:none.
pittsburgh @ jacksonville
pittsburgh is just like baltimore in a 0-8 su situation this week and also like tampa and buffalo, they are in another 1-8 su/ats situation here. the jags are in a 4-1 su/ats situation according to my ratings. so, no wander why jacksonville is favored bby 5-5.5 here. but with the style of play of these two teams i have a hard time picking the team that will cover this spread. it could go either way but i do expect the jags to win outright. lean:none
minnesota @ new orleans play: MINNESOTA +3.5 *B*
i have new orleans rated 14 places better and that fact alone puts them in a 2-10 ats group this week. they are also the biggest public play (by far) in that group and that too situate them on top of the group. they are 1-3 su and 1-3 teams as underdogs of 2-8 points are 40-20 ats in last 60. minnesota was in the same group of teams last week, but they failed, simply because they turned the ball over too many times and because they were outcoached by tennesse. i doubt that the linemakers will make such a big mistake on the same team two weeks in a row, especially with this beeing the nationally televized mnf game. new orleans at home vs teams w/less wins is 0-4 su in last 4, 1-6 su in last 7, 4-12 su in last 16, 0-4 ats in last 4, 1-8 ats in last 9, 3-18 ats in last 21 and 1-9 su and 0-10 ats if favored by less than 7 against those teams. i like this desperate minnesota team to win this game outright.
Summary:
PLAYS:
SEATTLE +7 ARIZONA -1 DETROIT +3.5 MINNESOTA +3.5
LEANS:
KC +10 Houston +3.5
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tampa bay @ denver
another somewhat fishy line with two teams with the identical records and the home team favored by the home field advantage. after denver's loss to kc last week and tb win against gb, the line is very accurate. the public might think that denver should be favored by more, hence a big public support for the home team. in reality, denver will probably win by 3. tampa is in a group of road dogs ranked better than the opponent that is 1-8 so far this season according to my ratings and they were in this same spot in week 1 vs new orleans. they lost that game, but just barely, and i expect more of the same here. tampa bay is 11-2 ats in last 13 on the road vs teams with same # of wins and denver is 0-6-2 ats in last 8 at home vs same number of wins. lean:none
buffalo @ arizona play: ARIZONA -1
arizona is comming off of their ugly loss to the jets, they lost their best reciever, and they are favored against a 4-0 team that impresses everyone right now. buffalo is in the same 1-8 group as tampa this week and they are also public dog, something that tampa is not. they are in the exact same situation as green bay last week when they lost to tampa bay. arizona is 9-0 su and ats in last 9 when at pk or favored at home vs teams with more wins. last two games in this situation came vs detroit and cleveland last season. 4-0 teams are 3-12 su as road dogs in last 15 and road dogs after a road fave win are 5-19 su in last 24 against teams off a road dog loss. the public is in love with the over and that's also something that goes in arizona favor.
new england at san francisco
gotta belive that a rested veteran new england team, that is well coached, will find a way to win this one againt the sf 49ers who were exposed in new orleans last week. i don't think it is going to be easy but new england is 17-2 in last 19 on the road and san francisco is 0-7 at home vs teams with same # of wins. new england lost a lot of their public support after brady injury and especially after their loss to miami. they should win this one but i have hard time beliveing that it will be a blowout. probably a close game with a 3-6 pts new england win. lean:none
cincinnati @ dallas
the line is inflated a little bit as the linemakers expect dallas to come back strong this week after their bad loss to washington last week. the linemakers are probably right as dallas should win by double digits here. however, a backdoor by cincy is not out of question. lean:none.
pittsburgh @ jacksonville
pittsburgh is just like baltimore in a 0-8 su situation this week and also like tampa and buffalo, they are in another 1-8 su/ats situation here. the jags are in a 4-1 su/ats situation according to my ratings. so, no wander why jacksonville is favored bby 5-5.5 here. but with the style of play of these two teams i have a hard time picking the team that will cover this spread. it could go either way but i do expect the jags to win outright. lean:none
minnesota @ new orleans play: MINNESOTA +3.5 *B*
i have new orleans rated 14 places better and that fact alone puts them in a 2-10 ats group this week. they are also the biggest public play (by far) in that group and that too situate them on top of the group. they are 1-3 su and 1-3 teams as underdogs of 2-8 points are 40-20 ats in last 60. minnesota was in the same group of teams last week, but they failed, simply because they turned the ball over too many times and because they were outcoached by tennesse. i doubt that the linemakers will make such a big mistake on the same team two weeks in a row, especially with this beeing the nationally televized mnf game. new orleans at home vs teams w/less wins is 0-4 su in last 4, 1-6 su in last 7, 4-12 su in last 16, 0-4 ats in last 4, 1-8 ats in last 9, 3-18 ats in last 21 and 1-9 su and 0-10 ats if favored by less than 7 against those teams. i like this desperate minnesota team to win this game outright.
GL today but I have to disagree with Minn game. Minn has tough D however, Saints beginning to roll and Superdome will be raucous on MNF. Trends as listed are good for helping capping decisions if you are capping. But trends overall are just that trends. Everyday is a new day and the personnel, coaches, etc are all different than the teams that the trends started with in most cases.
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GL today but I have to disagree with Minn game. Minn has tough D however, Saints beginning to roll and Superdome will be raucous on MNF. Trends as listed are good for helping capping decisions if you are capping. But trends overall are just that trends. Everyday is a new day and the personnel, coaches, etc are all different than the teams that the trends started with in most cases.
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