First off, I want to state that I hope this thread gets positive feedback. This is not meant to bash touts, covers experts, or anyone who sells picks.I seriously believe that there are people who show a profit over a 5 year, 10 year, 20 year period betting on sports. That being said, my friends and I have debated over why some people sell picks.
I am not talking about the “scamdicappers”. Obviously there are many touts who don’t show a long term winning percentage, and are just basically marketing machines trying to sign people up for pick packages and if they lose, oh well. They lose customers, but they will try to find new ones the next week with email blitzes and boiler room telemarketing campaigns.
What I/we want to know, is why do the legitimate handicappers sell picks? Why not just bet the games and be done with it. Here is what we came up with, and I hope to get positive feedback only. If you have a “negative” view of even the legitimate people who sell picks, please voice your opinion, but try to be as constructive about it as possible.
1. The handicappers long term winning percentage is so good, that they are unable to make bets big enough to create a livable income, because all the books have lowered their limits. I think this would be a hard reason to give, because most people who are successful have many different books to bet with, so their bets would be spread out over several different books throughout the year. They would win with some books over the course of a year, but lose at other books over the course of a year. And I would think that the books they won at the year before, they might then lose at these books the next year, and vice versa. So it would take a lot of time winning at the same book to get limits lowered. I am by no means an expert in this area, as I bet very small amounts, so I would like to hear from guys who bet $500, $1000 or game or more, and hear what it is like when you win long term for “serious” money.
2. Some people who show a long term winning percentage would just rather sell their picks, and not even have to deal with shopping for lines, making bets, transferring money, etc. They do the research, sell picks to clients, and if they win they keep their clients, if they lose they don’t. So the outcome of their picks are still meaningful, just not on a “personal” wagering basis. Also, some people are good at picking winners, but are not good at money management. Or they can’t deal with the ups and downs of their own money at risk. So they do the research, make picks, sell them, but don’t have their own capital at risk.
3. You would have to bet too much money per game to be able to make a “decent” living betting sports. So why not supplement your income and sell your picks too. You probably can’t get rich betting $500.00 per game, but if you are selling your picks to 100 people who bet $500.00 per game, chances are you will do better over the long run with your picks then your clients will do with picking their own games. So they get “action”, show a long term profit, and don’t have to do all of the work and research to pick winning bets. So they keep paying for picks, and it is a win/win for everyone.