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bodio |
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#1 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:28:04 PM 2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units
Mon 10/03
#1: Texas Rangers +118
I
like the way Colby Lewis has pitched lately. For the month of
September his xFIP is 3.59, lowest of any months this year with a 3.63
K/BB ratio. In his last 2 starts against the Rays he's allowed 6 hits
and 0 ER's in 13 innings of work. Against a Rays lineup which is
average against 'right-handed' pitchers, there is no reason not to think
that Lewis can't be sharp again in this outing. Opposite Lewis is
Price, who has been struggling a bit lately. His xFIP of 3.74 in
September is still pretty solid but his 2.13 K/BB ratio is the lowest
this year and 4.28 BB/9 is pretty troubling. In Price's last 2 starts
he's allowed 11 runs (7 ER's but the rest were due to HIS errors) on 10
hits with 3 HR's. He'll be facing a Rangers team against which he is
0-5 in his career with a 5.48 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Rangers are the 3rd
best offensive team against lefties and I see them having success
against Price tonight. Rangers are the play.
#2: Detroit Tigers -125
In
the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home.
Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was
cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on
the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important?
In my opinion, yes it is. Check out Sabathia's last 3 starts in
Detroit:
04/27/2009: 8 innings / 6 hits / 4 ER's / 1 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
05/13/2010: 6 innings / 9 hits / 6 ER's / 2 HR / Result: Lost 6-0
05/03/2011: 7 innints / 10 hits / 4 ER's / 0 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
It's
safe to say that he's struggled a bit playing in Comerica Park. At the
same time he's been much better against the Tigers when facing them in
Yankee stadium. Is this just a 'random' fluctuation or is there
something to it? Not sure as the sample size is pretty small. But what
I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th
best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees'
offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure
they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during
the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many
losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like
Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.
Good luck!
=========================================
Updated records:
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
_________________
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bad_dog |
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#2 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:30:55 PM  |
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#3 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:36:26 PM |
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JMAG |
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#4 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:37:55 PM 
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#5 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:41:39 PM
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bodio |
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#6 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:42:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by JMAG:
Hey Bodio, which way do you lean on the Rays/Rangers OVER/UNDER?
UNDER would be a play at 8. Pass at 7.5 |
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#7 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:42:47 PM |
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LTE23 |
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#8 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:43:53 PM
Det bullpen scares me with how they are so up and down. best of luck. do u have any stats on the bullpens.
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#9 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:45:07 PM  |
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#10 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:45:11 PM
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#11 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:45:38 PM
Any Monday night football action? |
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#12 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:46:03 PM Ranger offense is too strong and getting TEX at +$$- I'll take it.
Taking NYY over DET. even though CC ended the season a bit shaky. Verlander defiantly worries me, so I'm banking on CC stepping up. If CC brings his A game- IMO- this turns into a pick-um and I went with the +$ With Burnett scheduled game 4- Yanks will want to get this one tonight.
GL!
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#13 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:46:45 PM Good luck and much appreciation as always for your time and efforts.
EE |
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#14 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:47:35 PM
BOL
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afgking4life |
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#15 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:51:44 PM
Where do you get these stats from, for example: team rankings versus left/right handed pitchers....
Any MNF picks also ? |
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#16 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:51:49 PM |
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#17 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:52:23 PM
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#18 Posted: 10/3/2011 2:57:41 PM |
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bodio |
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#19 Posted: 10/3/2011 3:08:01 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by LTE23:
Tigers line is dropping. I wonder who has more pressure big bucks CC or Verlander with his crazy success this year to lead his team to a Victory when it counts.
Det bullpen scares me with how they are so up and down. best of luck. do u have any stats on the bullpens.
3.48 xFIP in September/October for Tigers compared to 4.38 for Yankees. Tigers' pen is in pretty good form right now. |
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bodio |
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#20 Posted: 10/3/2011 3:08:36 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kRaZeEpLaYa:
GL Bodio...like the stat of Texas having the 3rd best offensive team vs lefties. be tailing both plays since I was leaning Det and Verlander in game 1 with these pitchers.
Any Monday night football action?
no. Passing on the MNF game. |
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bodio |
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#21 Posted: 10/3/2011 3:12:55 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by MojoGypson:
with you on TEX over TB. Ranger offense is too strong and getting TEX at +$$- I'll take it.
Taking NYY over DET. even though CC ended the season a bit shaky. Verlander defiantly worries me, so I'm banking on CC stepping up. If CC brings his A game- IMO- this turns into a pick-um and I went with the +$ With Burnett scheduled game 4- Yanks will want to get this one tonight.
GL!
And Tigers just don't want it tonight eh? So because Tigers have Porcello in game 4, they don't want to win game 3. Very interesting... |
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#22 Posted: 10/3/2011 3:13:00 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bodio:
UNDER would be a play at 8. Pass at 7.5
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bodio |
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#23 Posted: 10/3/2011 3:13:45 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by afgking4life: Nice picks Bodio, agree with the Rangers pick.
Where do you get these stats from, for example: team rankings versus left/right handed pitchers....
Any MNF picks also ?
fangraphs Passing on MNF |
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bodio |
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#24 Posted: 10/3/2011 3:14:17 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by underDOGGIE:
What about verlanders numbers in the playoffs and his number with this umpire behind the plate? They don't worry you? As cc has outstanding numbers with this umpire! Or you dint really look at those numbers?
I don't handicap umpires |
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#25 Posted: 10/3/2011 3:16:06 PM |
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