Bodio's MLB Mon 10/03 (Playoffs)

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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: Bodio's MLB Mon 10/03 (Playoffs)
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:28:04 PM
2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units

Mon 10/03

#1: Texas Rangers +118

I like the way Colby Lewis has pitched lately. For the month of September his xFIP is 3.59, lowest of any months this year with a 3.63 K/BB ratio. In his last 2 starts against the Rays he's allowed 6 hits and 0 ER's in 13 innings of work. Against a Rays lineup which is average against 'right-handed' pitchers, there is no reason not to think that Lewis can't be sharp again in this outing. Opposite Lewis is Price, who has been struggling a bit lately. His xFIP of 3.74 in September is still pretty solid but his 2.13 K/BB ratio is the lowest this year and 4.28 BB/9 is pretty troubling. In Price's last 2 starts he's allowed 11 runs (7 ER's but the rest were due to HIS errors) on 10 hits with 3 HR's. He'll be facing a Rangers team against which he is 0-5 in his career with a 5.48 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Rangers are the 3rd best offensive team against lefties and I see them having success against Price tonight. Rangers are the play.

#2: Detroit Tigers -125

In the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home. Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important? In my opinion, yes it is. Check out Sabathia's last 3 starts in Detroit:

04/27/2009: 8 innings / 6 hits / 4 ER's / 1 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
05/13/2010: 6 innings / 9 hits / 6 ER's / 2 HR / Result: Lost 6-0
05/03/2011: 7 innints / 10 hits / 4 ER's / 0 HR / Result: Lost 4-2

It's safe to say that he's struggled a bit playing in Comerica Park. At the same time he's been much better against the Tigers when facing them in Yankee stadium. Is this just a 'random' fluctuation or is there something to it? Not sure as the sample size is pretty small. But what I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees' offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.

Good luck!



=========================================
Updated records:

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390

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bad_dog PM bad_dog
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:30:55 PM
ecrek9 PM ecrek9
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:36:26 PM
BOL Bodio I'm tailing both
JMAG PM JMAG
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:37:55 PM

JMAG PM JMAG
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:41:39 PM
Hey Bodio, which way do you lean on the Rays/Rangers OVER/UNDER?
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:42:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMAG:

Hey Bodio, which way do you lean on the Rays/Rangers OVER/UNDER?

UNDER would be a play at 8.  Pass at 7.5
Yungstar PM Yungstar
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:42:47 PM
Like em both Bodio. I can never trust the bats of TB, and I will never go against Verlander, lol. GL.
LTE23 PM LTE23
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:43:53 PM
Tigers line is dropping. I wonder who has more pressure big bucks CC or Verlander with his crazy success this year to lead his team to a Victory when it counts.

Det bullpen scares me with how they are so up and down. best of luck. do u have any stats on the bullpens.
MAGO304 PM MAGO304
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:45:07 PM
You read my mind or should I say i read yours Bodio.  I was on both before you posted, but now I like them even more!  
stingercofc PM stingercofc
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:45:11 PM
GL Bodio

kRaZeEpLaYa PM kRaZeEpLaYa
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:45:38 PM
GL Bodio...like the stat of Texas having the 3rd best offensive team vs lefties. be tailing both plays since I was leaning Det and Verlander in game 1 with these pitchers.

Any Monday night football action?
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MojoGypson PM MojoGypson
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:46:03 PM
with you on TEX over TB. 
Ranger offense is too strong and getting TEX at +$$- I'll take it.

Taking NYY over DET.
even though CC ended the season a bit shaky.
Verlander defiantly worries me, so I'm banking on CC stepping up.
If CC brings his A game- IMO- this turns into a pick-um and I went with the +$
With Burnett scheduled  game 4- Yanks will want to get this one tonight.

GL!

evilelvis PM evilelvis
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:46:45 PM

Good luck and much appreciation as always for your time and efforts.

EE

TucsonClip PM TucsonClip
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:47:35 PM
Was with you on the Bombers getting to Verlander in New York, but have a feeling they are going to struggle in Comerica.

BOL
afgking4life PM afgking4life
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:51:44 PM
Nice picks Bodio, agree with the Rangers pick.

Where do you get these stats from, for example: team rankings versus left/right handed pitchers....

Any MNF picks also ?
jeffyy9960 PM jeffyy9960
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:51:49 PM
thanks bodio for the good picks.  keep them comming.
xbaggypants PM xbaggypants
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:52:23 PM
Like both
underDOGGIE PM underDOGGIE
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Posted: 10/3/2011 2:57:41 PM
What about verlanders numbers in the playoffs and his number with this umpire behind the plate? They don't worry you? As cc has outstanding numbers with this umpire! Or you dint really look at those numbers?
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bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 10/3/2011 3:08:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LTE23:

Tigers line is dropping. I wonder who has more pressure big bucks CC or Verlander with his crazy success this year to lead his team to a Victory when it counts.

Det bullpen scares me with how they are so up and down. best of luck. do u have any stats on the bullpens.

3.48 xFIP in September/October for Tigers compared to 4.38 for Yankees. Tigers' pen is in pretty good form right now. 
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 10/3/2011 3:08:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kRaZeEpLaYa:

GL Bodio...like the stat of Texas having the 3rd best offensive team vs lefties. be tailing both plays since I was leaning Det and Verlander in game 1 with these pitchers.

Any Monday night football action?

no.  Passing on the MNF game.
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 10/3/2011 3:12:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MojoGypson:

with you on TEX over TB. 
Ranger offense is too strong and getting TEX at +$$- I'll take it.

Taking NYY over DET.
even though CC ended the season a bit shaky.
Verlander defiantly worries me, so I'm banking on CC stepping up.
If CC brings his A game- IMO- this turns into a pick-um and I went with the +$
With Burnett scheduled  game 4- Yanks will want to get this one tonight.

GL!


And Tigers just don't want it tonight eh?
So because Tigers have Porcello in game 4, they don't want to win game 3.  Very interesting... 
7257MELROSE PM 7257MELROSE
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Posted: 10/3/2011 3:13:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bodio:


UNDER would be a play at 8.  Pass at 7.5

bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 10/3/2011 3:13:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by afgking4life:

Nice picks Bodio, agree with the Rangers pick.

Where do you get these stats from, for example: team rankings versus left/right handed pitchers....

Any MNF picks also ?

fangraphs
Passing on MNF
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 10/3/2011 3:14:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by underDOGGIE:

What about verlanders numbers in the playoffs and his number with this umpire behind the plate? They don't worry you? As cc has outstanding numbers with this umpire! Or you dint really look at those numbers?

I don't handicap umpires 
CRS PM CRS
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Posted: 10/3/2011 3:16:06 PM
Bodio question concerning your units and earnings: I assume you are playing 1,000 per unit based on your figures of + 27.81 units. So all your plays are for 1 unit right? Your average loser is around -112 on the average. Am i fairly close? I'm questiong because i never noticed any different wagering amounts when you post the plays, Thanks alot
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