Posted:
#1
Alright, I wore my lucky suspenders and sat in a bucket of cheese while handicapping so I'm ready to go today. This is the only day that people pay attention to Tampa (and me) so I had to make sure I was on my A game, so I used gouda cheese.
I'll be posting throughout the day but some of my top picks:
Race 3- Monastic has faced the best fields but I think he's going to need a race. I'm going with #8 I.E. Flash. The running line in his first race is a little deceptive. He didn't have the lead for a while and then inherited it because he had good position on the rail and the other horses slowed down. He had a more difficult trip last time than Patriotic Dream who had a clear trip. They switched back to Coa who is one of the top 3 riders on the grass at Tampa
Race 4- #5 King Andrew had almost a 2 year layoff and has had 2 miserable post positions since the comeback. Should be sitting just behind the #8 Max's Beau who is making his 100th start today and has a tendency to give it up at the wire.
Race 7- Wide open race, but I think the chalk is beatable. #1 Sister Earth is making her second start and Delacour has thrived with this move on the grass this meet. The other sneaky horse in here is #6 Quinte West. I've seen enough of these First Samurai (Giants Causeway) products show up in their 1st race on the turf at Tampa and come flying at the end, plus it doesn't hurt that Leparoux rides.
Race 8- #8 Secret Commander is 3 for 43 lifetime but there's still plenty to like for this race. The horse he finished behind last time has won 4 straight and stepped up yesterday to a 21k allowance race on the turf and blew away the field. Centeno hops aboard and while his present jockey numbers look bad, he was the king of Tampa for years before he decided to race mostly at Gulfstream this year.
Race 10- Hillsborough G-3- #9 Gold D'oro has been in good form since the comeback. Had a slow start last time and still rallied for 3rd. The outside posts do very well at Tampa when there's no temp. rail and I like the fact Mott chose the local jockey in Coa as opposed to the jockeys that are here for just today.
Race 11 TB Derby G-2- Pletcher's horse will get hammered and provide some good value to the other's in here. As long as #12 Cajun Charlie flies out of there with #9 SHF this should set up beautifully for an off the pace horse. The one thing about the Derby over the years is horses that have a prep over the turf seem to run well and finish in the top 3. #6 Cozetti would apply here but I don't like the layoff, might finish 3rd at best. The horse that I like is #2 Golden Ticket. This horse has run hard in each start since his first. Last year was always crying out for more ground and since the comeback he was entered in 2 turf races. He ran great despite being in some crowded spots the last half of the race in the start 2 back. Last start was scheduled for the turf and taken off but on a good track. Once Cruz started to finally get him in gear he won pretty handily. 3rd race off the layoff, definitely fit for today and on the improve in speed figures. He's the pick and might get around 12-1.
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