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Why you shouldn't bet anything based on Rasmussen Polls

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Posts: 13
 
Rookie
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Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 537
Posted: #1
Yes I am an Obama supporter but I want to help everyone make money. I frequently see people citing Rasmussen as a source for a Romney lead. I'm going to let historical evidence speak for itself. Here are seven 2008 swing states and their final polls compared with the actual numbers:

Florida

Rasmussen: McCain +1
Actual result: Obama + 2.8

North Carolina
Rasmussen: McCain +1
Actual result: Obama +0.3

Ohio
Rasmussen: Tie
Actual result: Obama +4.6

Virginia
Rasmussen: Obama +4.4
Actual result: Obama +6.3

Colorado
Rasmussen: Obama +4
Actual result: Obama +9

Nevada
Rasmussen: Obama +4
Actual result: Obama +12.5

Indiana
Rasmussen: McCain +3
Actual result: Obama +1.1


Only in North Carolina were they essentially spot on. Seven races and seven final polls too Republican? That strike anyone out there as a great track record to put your money on?


Bottom line is this: Look at the polling averages on Real Clear Politics and decide for yourself which way you want to go. Good luck guys!

 
Legend
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Joined: Jan, 2003
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Posted: #2



And before all the right-wingers get their panties all twisted up,
the idea here is to make money and build your bankroll.  Nobody cares if you think Rasmussen is more in tune with your own
political ideology.  Track records speak for themselves.  When you
look at Rasmussen's 2012 State Polling, they out of whack with all
other Pollsters.  This is not a coincidence.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #3
As an update to my last post here is where Rasmussen's polls currently stand:

OH - Romney 50 - Obama 48
FL - Romney 50 - Obama 48
VA - Romney 50 - Obama 47
WI - Romney 49 - Obama 49
NH - Romney 50 - Obama 48
CO - Romney 50 - Obama 47
IA - Romney 49 - Obama 48
NC - Romney 52 - Obama 46
NV - Obama 50 - Romney 48

This guy is literally just making shit up. If you guys want to make some money believe what Rasmussen is saying because you can make a lot of money. However, would any of you put your money out there based on his track record from 2008? 




 
Veteran
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Posted: #4
Rasmussen Reports has been proven to be the most inaccurate polling company in America.  They basically put up whatever numbers they want in favor of Republicans.  Pretty much every other poll has Obama up in almost every battleground state.
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #5
Rasmussen is the polling wing of the GOP, their numbers are totally cooked to fit in whatever media narrative the GOP candidates want it to be.
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #6
It's laughable that anyone would quote a Rasmussen poll, and then try to use it to validate their Republican argument.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2012
Posts: 22
Posted: #7
Intrade is the way to go when looking to make bets on politics based on a free market approach that is far more accurate than any poll.
 
Banned
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Posted: #8
is there more data on this?
 
Captain
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Joined: Aug, 2005
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Posted: #9
Rasmussen Reports has been proven to be the most inaccurate polling company in America.


Oh really?

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

Link: https://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/
 
Rookie
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad:

Rasmussen Reports has been proven to be the most inaccurate polling company in America.


Oh really?

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

Link: https://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

They nailed the overall margin but looking at each of those swing states you really want to tell me that you'd really put your money on what they say? More power to you if you do. I am excited for your post 14 on Wednesday when the polls end up being correct and Romney loses. 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2012
Posts: 22
Posted: #11
Looks like Rasmussen did it again, and it wasn't even close. Intrade, though was on the money. If you want to make money betting politics, check your emotions, and throw garbage polls out the window and tune into Intrade.
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #12

RenoChazz,what is it ,that Rasmussen did again? 

 

 
 
Banned
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by RenoChazz:

Looks like Rasmussen did it again, and it wasn't even close. Intrade, though was on the money. If you want to make money betting politics, check your emotions, and throw garbage polls out the window and tune into Intrade.

I agree...

some pretty crazy bets and betting strategies seen in this forum with the 2012 presidential election...

people might benefit from this advice...
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