Posted: 7/27/2012 9:54:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tikitom:
I read a lot of happy lefties already chalking this one up as a W.
Go find a single McCain voter that will not vote for Romney.
Will the youngsters turn out again and with the same enthusiaism? Doubtful, no job and a ton of debt does not an obamabot create.
Will minority turn out be higher or lower? I'm guessing lower - had things improved - they have not - he might have seen similar numbers, but 4 years later, sitting on your porch guzzling wine gets you exactly what it got you then.
How about the asshats that wanted to say they were a part of history? Been there. Done that. Got the Hope/Change T-shirt.
How does he win?
Where do the votes come from?
As an independent voter, here are my thoughts on how Obama will win:
In my view, Obama will probably squeak out a 2-4% popular vote margin and ultimately will win because of our electoral college system and its setup.
Obama basically has a "safe" 230+ electoral college votes in traditionally democratic leaning states, regardless of a possible uptick in voter turnout on the Republican side and/or less voter turnout from the usual democratic base. It's just not close in certain states no matter what Romney does.
I don't think, based on current polling data and past presidential elections, that potential "swing" states Michigan or New Hampshire can be won by Romney. Obama's support of the auto industry will likely allow him to prevail in Michigan.
Thus, Obama needs only approximately 30-40 additional electoral college votes from any of these eight "swing" states to reach 270:
FL(29), OH(18), VA(13), CO(9), IA(6), MO(10), NC(15), NV(6).
Romney win probably have to win 6 or 7 of these swing states. Can he? Possible, but very unlikely.
I think Romney wins in NC, MO and NV, but he can certainly lose one of them.
VA, OH and IA are interesting battlegrounds as well. Obama needs only one of these states, while Romney will likely require at least 2 of the 3.
Obviously, given the recent events in Colorado, it seems likely that Obama will become more appealing to certain voters there given his stance on gun control.
Florida, as usual, is key. If Obama wins Florida, it is virtually impossible for him not to reach 270. Early voting will be a key determinant and the Jewish vote may be decisive. Even if Obama loses FL, he can still capture the electoral college win. Romney does not have that luxury.
I really think it's Obama's election to lose.
I am not convinced, at this point, that Romney can galvanize and motivate the necessary voters in all of these swing states to reach 270.