What is the worst way to make picks?

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: What is the worst way to make picks?
Randisist PM Randisist
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Posted: 9/29/2012 10:16:21 PM
What is the worst way you can think of to make winning picks?

What is the last "system" you would use to select winning picks?

I have not checked yet but I wonder what would be the result of betting on the MLB team with the most wins, that is playing that day, everyday? Might be worth going through the season to see...

I know there are a lot of losing systems but I am looking for the worst of the lot.

Guaranteed losses, so to speak...




bruin95 PM bruin95
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Posted: 9/30/2012 2:23:34 AM
Throwing darts?  Having your girlfriend pick the teams based on the uniforms she liked the best?  These rank up there with the worst ways to pick games.
pazim PM pazim
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Posted: 9/30/2012 12:58:41 PM
Teams with best records are usually high favorites. In baseball if a team has the best record it won't keep winning at that rate. They usually slump after a good run or win .500 of their games for a certain stretch. At one point this season, yankees had the best record in baseball and had a good lead in their division. Now they are tied with baltimore.
Randisist PM Randisist
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Posted: 9/30/2012 3:27:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

Throwing darts?  Having your girlfriend pick the teams based on the uniforms she liked the best?  These rank up there with the worst ways to pick games.


Actually I am looking to get away from random chance. As an experiment I had my wife make college picks, I would tell her what the mascots were and she picked the one she liked best. My wife actually went 83% on her first 32 picks making one pick a day. For a while I knew she had a gift ,then it dropped to 37% fast.  Random is not the answer. When we watch football on TV uniforms is the way she picks who will win.
Randisist PM Randisist
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Posted: 9/30/2012 3:43:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pazim:

Teams with best records are usually high favorites. In baseball if a team has the best record it won't keep winning at that rate. They usually slump after a good run or win .500 of their games for a certain stretch. At one point this season, yankees had the best record in baseball and had a good lead in their division. Now they are tied with baltimore.


I would never bet teams that are most favored. BTDT Right now I have charted 11 teams win percentage per day. My thought (unproven as of yet) is the teams with the highest win percentage should be very heavily favored making the opposition big time underdogs. With a tiny bit of chase it might be profitable to bet them. (Betting Underdogs that is...)

Trends fascinate me, losing streaks, winning streaks, over and under streaks. What I look for most are trends that do not last over 3 occurrences. What would be great is finding that no team has the highest or lowest win/loss percentage for more than 3 games during the season. Starting after April of course.
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