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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Does Anybody Follow Line Movements?
tirepressure20
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tirepressure20
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Joined: Mar 2010
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#1
Posted: 1/14/2012 2:43:54 PM
Do you guys follow the line movements which factor in to which team you pick when you're doing your research?

I know some people swear by it, others not so much. I didn't really pay that much attention to it except when I am listening to podcasts about gambling and hear that the wiseguys are on a certain side. I'll jump on it too and for the most time it always works out and I will win with them.

I know it's hard to determine if the line is moving from the betting public, or if it is moving from wiseguy money.

I found a website that compiles information on matchups and on that page they list the "Team Line Action" stating:
"Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%".

For tonight's NBA matchup IND @ WAS it says that the OVER is favored by evidence of the line movement. However it says that the public is only correct 51% of the time when moving the total line. According to the statement above, since this is below the 57% that they recommended, it isn't worth betting the over solely because the line shifted in that direction.

Does anyone have any information tracking this system? How effective is it?
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braves5795
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braves5795
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#2
Posted: 1/18/2012 10:18:17 AM
tirepressure, would be glad to share some ideas i have on line movement, that hit about 2 out of 3
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rjumawan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
rjumawan
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#3
Posted: 1/20/2012 3:13:33 AM
line movments are good but consider at times the value may be gone if it moves to much.seen it happen way to many time.GL 
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rjumawan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
rjumawan
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#4
Posted: 1/20/2012 3:22:40 AM
line movments are good but consider at times the value may be gone if it moves to much.seen it happen way to many time.GL 
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