SLEW'S FAST HORSES FOR SAT. 03/30

Aqueduct - 6,8
Gulfstream - 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13
Santa Anita - 2,3,6,7,8,9
Tampa - 5,7,9,11
Fairgrounds - 5,8,9,10
Parx - 5
Oaklawn - 8

OK, so let's get right to it. A Slew of Key Horses running tomorrow (Sat.) and here they are:


CURRENT KEY HORSES

Decisive Moment - GP (11) GP 02/01/13 # 5
Za Approval - GP (11) GP 12/08/12 # 5
Upgrade - GP (11) GP 02/01/13 # 5
Orb - GP (12) GP 02/23/13 # 11
Majestic Harbor - FG ( 8) CD 11/22/12 # 4
Revolutionary - FG ( 9) AQU 02/02/13 # 9


Now I don't have the luxury of enough time to deal with a list like this, and anyway those of you who have been following Slew know pretty much what to do. My blog has thoughts on most if not all of these so feel free to check that out. The link is on the main page of the Slew site.

Orb and the Florida Derby

Here is my problem: 26.52 for the last 1/4 and 6.87 for the last 16th. If you were to look at those splits you would think 20K claimers. A function of a very fast 1:08.86 6 furlongs? The finish in 1:42.24 was not far off from the track record of 1:41.81 set barely a month before by Itsmyluckyday. Is that good? Or bad?

OK, so I got that off my chest. The problem is Orb. He runs against the horse that set that track record, and against Shanghai Bobby, a colt that not too long ago, well, maybe the end of last summer, was considered the probable Derby favorite. Now we are wondering if he can get anything close to the classic distance.

Orb made the vital middle move in the Fountain of Youth (fractions referred to above) and maybe the name of the race says it all. Where are they now? What next? We will find out soon enough.

Meanwhile, my horse from the Saratoga meet, Revolutionary, has been sent out by Mr. Pletcher to the Fair Grounds to compete in the Louisiana Derby against what appears to be a suspect field. At least in the mind of the odds maker, that is. I would have loved to see him run in Florida. THAT would have been interesting. The problem is that both Shanghai Bobby and Revolutionary need Derby points. And I guess the chances are pretty good we won't see both in the run for the roses anyway, so why compromise one or both when you can have your cake and all the points too. After all, for these guys the fortunes can change on a dime, especially at this fragile point in their careers. Just ask Spectacular Bid. Or Coronado's Quest.

Go ahead. Ask either one.

Bobby's clan doesn't ooze distance. He'll take them the first mile. After that, you look for the 'run all day' genes to take over. Orb has those genes coming out of every pore. Now there is a point to all this hedging. And it isn't anything new.

What do we know about these guys? I mean, if you have ever been around a 3 year old colt, you know not to blink twice. One week he is a gangly, goofy kid with the brain of a pea and the next week there is new muscle, new swagger, and in the case of a race horse, a new attitude once he figures out what the point of the exercise is. I mean, Itsmyluckyday was a different horse on new years day than he was on the 15th of December. We're also talking, in the case of Orb, connections that aren't, shall we say, new money. These people are racing lynchpins, who's breeding sheds are a who's who of American Thoroughbred class. No cheap Kentucky Derby dreams here. No horses split into a thousand 'partner' shares.

In this legendary corner of the racing world, the tortoise wins the race.

So I'm looking to see what Orb does next. I'd like some more serious fractions to start with. And then, I'm not sure I'd like to see him win the Florida Derby. At least not all out. I think you have to respect the record setter (and his speed figs) here as well. Anyone who doubts that, let me recall a name for you: War Emblem. Go ahead. Look it up.

But I'll be betting on the rich history that sets the foundation underneath Orb. Win or lose, I don't really care about the Florida Derby that much. I do care about the Kentucky Derby with it's $1300 exactas and $10,000 trifectas. I'll also admit to not having the time to handicap these races as this is a tough work time for me. So I'll rely on Slew and play some doubles using Slew's Key Horses in race 11 with Orb. Just in case he decides to take it to these guys.

But my heart...and some capital...will be not in San Francisco (with apologies to Mr. Bennett) but in Dubai with Animal Kingdom.

It will be a great day of racing. I'll miss it but you won't. So as always, good luck and good 'capping!