#1 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:59:01 PM This was race 10 on Derby Day at Churchill Downs.
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Here is how I see it and tell me what I am reading wrong.
I am basing this off of other 1 1/8M races.
Little Mike, Turallure, Al Khali, and Turbo Compressor all have first fractions of 48.2 or less (turbo compressor's was NOT on turf).
Speed for the middle fractions are:
Brilliant Speed at 46.1
Little Mike at 46.2
Turallure at 47.0
Doubles Partner at 48.0
Al Khali at 48.1
Papaw Bodie at 49.0
Get Stormy at 49.1
So I am still seeing Little Mike and Turallure leading with Al Khali close in 3rd, Brilliant Speed would be fighting Doubles Partner for 4th with Get Stormy and Papaw Bodie sitting in 5th and 6th.
Top Closing speeds are:
Al Khali at 10.2
Little Mike at 11.2
Papaw Bodie at 11.4
Brilliant Speed at 11.8
Doubles Partner at 12.1
Get Stormy 12.2
Turallure at 13.1
That gives me a top 3 of (not necessarily who I am betting)
Al Khali
Little Mike
Brilliant Speed.
Now the other horses have not races 1 1/8M. Which throws a wrench in.
Al Khali seems to race into trouble in his races. But with a new jockey that may change.
Little Mike has only raced the distance once in 5 races and the fast pace from him and Turallure and Boxeur des Rues may race him out of the race.
Brilliant Speed has one of the slowest first fractions of all the horses in the field. This is his 2nd race after a layoff and looked bad in his first race so his 2nd race may be better.
Papaw Bodie has had some of the slowest last fractions of the field and now another jockey change (9th in 12 races)
Turbo Compressor is running his 2nd race on turf but he did win his first at 1 1/16M but another jockey change after that win makes me wonder.
Doubles Partner has not run this distance in a year and had his lowest beyers rating at that distance.
Slim Shadey...I just hate GB horses. Just cannot seem to get them figured out.
And finally Boxeur des Reus, I think the fastest out of the gate and for the first 6 or 7 furlongs but dont think he can maintain with the other speed in the race.
That being said I see Al Khali, Brilliant Speed and Turbo Compressor.
I have only been betting on horses for less then a year. Am I seeing things correctly? Your imput would be very much appreciated.
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It finished:
Little Mike
Slim Shadey
Brilliant Speed
I liked Little Mike but did not think he could keep the pace. I did not know much about GB horses and not sure how to handicap them and I had Brilliant Speed in my top 3 as well. So for my first race I think I did okay, and I will keep trying and learning.
Any other thoughts? |