Posted: 11/18/2012 12:48:34 PM
PIT/BAL *UNDER 46*
= I know this has dropped to 41, 40.5, and even 40 at most books. Based on the GiLzTrend™ NFL Divisional PrimeTime UNDER's cashing @ 80% (12-3) this year, I'd still make the play. I bought this late Mon. night last week, after the Chiefs/Steelers game. This opened the highest it's ever opened for a PIT/BAL game, I believe, and Big Ben is worth 6 points of a drop? Not really buying that... again, just playing the trend.
TB/CAR *OVER 48*
= If you played the OVER in every Bucs game this year, you'd be looking good. Real good. Only 2 out of their 9 games have gone under the posted total, and 6 have OVERS have cashed 6 straight in Buccaneer games. Another trend follower I'm being, but I think it's beneficial with Cam Newton on the other side of the ball and playing an NFC South team, where his career numbers are tops -vs- any other division. With a posted QB rating @ 90, and -vs- the Bucs, his QB rating is 108.8 - defending Cam -vs- the NFC South/Bucs is just more of a confidence booster he'll get some points on the Bucs. I also have the Bucs -1 and I like this a little more then the OVER. Cam -vs- the Bucs is nothing compared to Freeman -vs- the Panthers. The past 3 years, Freeman has lit up the Panthers' D completing 68% of his passes in the process. He's got 6 TD's to 1 INT, posted QB rating over 100 (104.0) and has led the Bucs to victory over the Panthers 3 of the last 4 started against them. Add in these little stat nuggets mxied with the way the Bucs are playing on the offensive side of the ball... I'm expecting/hoping for the Bucs to pight up the scoreboard in Carolina. As of right now, there's a 30% chance of light rain. All is good.
DET/GB *OVER 51.5*
= 2 QB's who shine -vs- one another, 2 Weak Secondary's, 2 Teams who abbandoned the run meaning the more pass attempts, the more the clock stops, the better it is for the OVER to prevail. Now, outside of GiLzTrend™ in primetime matchups, divisional matchups a lone have seen the UNDER hit when H2H @ 66% this year. But I think it's nothing about going against the brain with the reasons I mentioned in the opening. Another big reason, is I love fading the Lions the 2nd half of the season. But why not today? I kinda steer clear of sides when teams come off byes. They're a bit trickier then some would think. Example this season is the Fat Man (Andy Reid) never lost off a bye, and of course with this year's team in Philly, he dropped his first game off a bye. More example then just that but I don't wanna bailout on what I'm trying to get across with the Lions/2nd half of football. Since 2009, the Lions are 9-16 in the 2nd half, and the OVER has hit 71% (18-7) of the time. The Lions did, however, start off slow in the first half then they did recent years... so today, I believe they'll put up some points for a very vulernable Charles Woodson-less secondary of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers owns the Lions. YES, owns. In 7 careers starts -vs- the Lions, Rodgers has a posted QB rating @ 115.7, 16TD to 4INT, completing 69.4% of his passes and averages 268 a game threw the air.