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Author: [Penalty Box] Topic: GiLz BOX'ers ((NFL - Week 11))
GiLmo574 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Hard Rock |
GiLmo574
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#1
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:48:16 PM

  
=  61-33 (65%)  @  +45.80 unit$





CURRENT CARD:    (Week 11)

 Steelers/Ravens *UNDER 46* @ -110  =  [2U]

 Bucs/Panthers *OVER 48* @ -110  =  [2U]
 Bucs -1 @ -110  =  [2U]

 Lions/Packers *OVER 51.5* @ -110  =  [2U]

 Browns +9 @ -110  =  [2U]

 Raiders +5 @ +100  =  [2U]

 6pt Teaser Parlay @ -110  =  [2U]
1.) Eagles +10
2.) Chiefs +9.5



GiLzTrend™  =  this year, divisional head-to-head primetime games have hit the UNDER 12 out of the 15 games played.  UNDER is 12-3 (80%) for teams within in the same division playing on Wednesday/Thursday Night, Sunday Night, or Monday Night Football.  (the Opening Night/Wed. Night game between NYG/DAL is counted as Thursday Night)
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GiLmo574
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#2
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:48:34 PM

 PIT/BAL *UNDER 46*

I know this has dropped to 41, 40.5, and even 40 at most books.  Based on the GiLzTrend™ NFL Divisional PrimeTime UNDER's cashing @ 80% (12-3) this year, I'd still make the play.  I bought this late Mon. night last week, after the Chiefs/Steelers game.  This opened the highest it's ever opened for a PIT/BAL game, I believe, and Big Ben is worth 6 points of a drop? Not really buying that... again, just playing the trend.  



 Bucs -1
 TB/CAR *OVER 48*

If you played the OVER in every Bucs game this year, you'd be looking good.  Real good.  Only 2 out of their 9 games have gone under the posted total, and 6 have OVERS have cashed 6 straight in Buccaneer games.  Another trend follower I'm being, but I think it's beneficial with Cam Newton on the other side of the ball and playing an NFC South team, where his career numbers are tops -vs- any other division.  With a posted QB rating @ 90, and -vs- the Bucs, his QB rating is 108.8  -  defending Cam -vs- the NFC South/Bucs is just more of a confidence booster he'll get some points on the Bucs.  I also have the Bucs -1 and I like this a little more then the OVER.  Cam -vs- the Bucs is nothing compared to Freeman -vs- the Panthers.  The past 3 years, Freeman has lit up the Panthers' D completing 68% of his passes in the process.  He's got 6 TD's to 1 INT, posted QB rating over 100 (104.0) and has led the Bucs to victory over the Panthers 3 of the last 4 started against them.  Add in these little stat nuggets mxied with the way the Bucs are playing on the offensive side of the ball... I'm expecting/hoping for the Bucs to pight up the scoreboard in Carolina.  As of right now, there's a 30% chance of light rain.  All is good.



 DET/GB *OVER 51.5*

= 2 QB's who shine -vs- one another, 2 Weak Secondary's, 2 Teams who abbandoned the run meaning the more pass attempts, the more the clock stops, the better it is for the OVER to prevail.  Now, outside of GiLzTrend™ in primetime matchups, divisional matchups a lone have seen the UNDER hit when H2H @ 66% this year.  But I think it's nothing about going against the brain with the reasons I mentioned in the opening.  Another big reason, is I love fading the Lions the 2nd half of the season.  But why not today? I kinda steer clear of sides when teams come off byes.  They're a bit trickier then some would think.  Example this season is the Fat Man (Andy Reid) never lost off a bye, and of course with this year's team in Philly, he dropped his first game off a bye.  More example then just that but I don't wanna bailout on what I'm trying to get across with the Lions/2nd half of football.  Since 2009, the Lions are 9-16 in the 2nd half, and the OVER has hit 71% (18-7) of the time.  The Lions did, however, start off slow in the first half then they did recent years... so today, I believe they'll put up some points for a very vulernable Charles Woodson-less secondary of the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers owns the Lions.  YES, owns.  In 7 careers starts -vs- the Lions, Rodgers has a posted QB rating @ 115.7, 16TD to 4INT, completing 69.4% of his passes and averages 268 a game threw the air.  

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#3
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:49:00 PM

 Browns +9

Another TOP FADE of mine  - fading the Cowboys coming back to Dallas after a big road victory.  This, and hearing Dallas' name in the media 10plus times a day as they are back or the team to beat or yadda yadda yay.  Rob Ryan says it's personal -vs- the Browns.  Brownies have been quiet and have to said it's personal -vs- him.  Not gonna go stat wild on this one.  Not trend crazy.  Just gonna stick to situational.  And that situation is the Cowboys are flat coming back home after a big win.  Most of the time, too, it's a big win in general.  Rare to see the Cowboys these days have 2 outstanding back-to-back games on both sides of the ball.  



 Raiders +5

The Raiders? Really? -vs- Drew Brees & the streaky Saints who have a chance @ getting bacl to .500 where nobody thought they would? The counted out Saints? You're going against them GiL? Why, yes, yes I am.  Now I'm not saying the Raiders are going to win straight up.  If I thought that, then of course I'd have a couple pacos on the moneyliner.  I'm getting 5 with NJA, no juice attached.  The Saints are in a prime let down spot going out west to get back .500 -vs- a Raiders team who is....... well, not really good at anything.  The Raiders can pass.  Yea.  But consitently? NO.  They can run, at times, but consistently? NO.  The defense, consistently good at not being good.  But so is the Saints defense.  And the OVER isn't a bad play either.  The Raiders +5 is a play I really, I really like.

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GiLmo574 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Hard Rock |
GiLmo574
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#4
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:49:33 PM

Gangsters & Gentlemen  



    BOX'ers       
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Iw1nBets send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:51:32 PM
very non- conformist teaser Gil

you are the most interesting capper in the world 
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shrimp1958
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#6
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:51:58 PM
Saw the Raiders last week...defense played flag football for 3 hours ..Saints might get 55...Good luck...
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222bad send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:55:50 PM
  Gil     At this point I'm going to wait it out and probably bet the under just before tonight's game.  It can't go any lower, can it?I love my Raiders, but not enough to put my money on them today.

                              BOL 
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ClubDirt send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 11/18/2012 1:04:35 PM
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wmi799
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#9
Posted: 11/18/2012 1:06:01 PM
Love the Bucs play. BOL on the plays GiLmo
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