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Author: [Penalty Box] Topic: Backup QB's
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#1
Posted: 11/18/2012 10:22:47 AM
first thing we look at every week is whether we can play a team with a backup qb.  why?  because QB is, for most teams, the most overrated posiotion on the field.  and, we like this angle much better if the backup came in to replace the starter due toi an injury without the benefit of taking any snaps with the first tgeam in practice the prior week.  the worse the backup looked in the game, the more we like them the next week.  basically, the two value angles are: 1) again, qb position is way overrated by gamblers in almost every cae, and 2), there is a huge difference between a backup being thrown into the middle a game cold without preparing and knowing he's going to be the starter all week and getting to practice with the first team.

of course, there are other factors, but it would not surprise me if these three teams went 2-1 this week.

1. Philly +3-  philly is the worst team of all times, overrated every week with no coaching.  but they've never had a qb so this isn't much of a difference, probably an improvement.  and washington has no pass defense.  this is probably the best situation because foles is a rookie and most people automatically assume he sucks based on last week.  washington needs the game, everyone has written philly off.  i might have to play this one.

Pitt +3-  this will be a hard one.  leftwich looked bad, but the problem is, he really is that bad.  i actually didn't know he was still in the league.  i thought that was jared lorenzen with a spray on tan.  but it still fits this angle so i'll probably play it too.

Chicago +7  another good one.  caompbell is probably the best of the three right now.  he's certainly had the most success in his career.  and this is probably the least line value.  i think SF should be a 6 point favorite with cutler, but then again we think houston and SF are clearly better than chicago which is why we liked houston last week.  i'm the least excited about this one because i don't see much of a line reaction, although 6 to 7 is always something to consider.

we also like: AZ, Clev, Stl, Oak.  and, this is the biggest spread i can remember betting but i think indy is overrated and ready for a beating.  this line should be higher if NE comes to play a full game-  NE.

keep in mind, two weeks ago was the crazy week where almost all favorites covered and we survived ging 3-3.  we figured there would be a reversion last week and bet more usual and had a nice week.  so, we are due for a bad one any week now.

on Stl, i'm worried that we missed the boat by not taking Seattle at home vs the jets last week.  in hindsight, that was one of the better bets one can make in the nfl and we missed it although we love seattle and hate the jets.  we also love Stl, probably more than any team in the nfl, but the jets looked horrible last week and we all know a team is never as bad as they look one week and usually have enough pride and motivation to come back stronger the next week.  so i'm not sold on this play. 

anyway, good luck.


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#2
Posted: 11/18/2012 10:42:47 AM
also, i look to bet against detroit every week and i like green bay but i don't get this line at all.  as a result, i'm staying far away from this one. 
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#3
Posted: 11/18/2012 10:47:28 AM
Jared Lorenzen with a spray tan. 
Leftwich has always been an underachieving stiff. He's just an older one now. 
Jax +15   Every possible situational handicapping scenario you can think of favors the Jags here. And yet it's still a bet I make with great trepidation and deep regret.

NE -9.5   If the Patriots are who we think they are, this one is never in doubt. I don't do much for 1H bets, but the Pats may be up 3 scores by halftime.

Philly +3.5   Probably the best percentage play for a dog to win straight up.

Saints/Raiders Over 54.5   Who's betting this under ? And why would they ? Seriously, these 2 will be close to this number at halftime. Neither team even cares about their defense. If they score 44, we'll just have to score 45 mentality.

Lions/Pack Over 52   The Lions have 4 defensive backs on IR and 3 more on this week's injury report. The Pack will be starting 2 undrafted rookies at linebacker.

Prost ! 
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#4
Posted: 11/18/2012 10:48:42 AM
Packers are a public darling.  They have a bunch of injuries on defense.  Detroit +4 looks attractive.  
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#5
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:10:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by starwink:

Packers are a public darling.  They have a bunch of injuries on defense.  Detroit +4 looks attractive.  
We now have a Mr. Money2BMade touting the max bet game of the year in the mains. It's Green Bay. 
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#6
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:26:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Getty3:

We now have a Mr. Money2BMade touting the max bet game of the year in the mains. It's Green Bay. 
A Mr. Swervee has a Big Play on Green Bay. He "hammered" it for $660 (allegedly)
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#7
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:35:28 AM
The Lions are my typical play, and the way this one is shaping up the Lions are falling into a BIG bet category for me ... but I just can't seem to pull the trigger for some reason. 
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#8
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:36:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

first thing we look at every week is whether we can play a team with a backup qb.  why?  because QB is, for most teams, the most overrated posiotion on the field.  and, we like this angle much better if the backup came in to replace the starter due toi an injury without the benefit of taking any snaps with the first tgeam in practice the prior week.  the worse the backup looked in the game, the more we like them the next week.  basically, the two value angles are: 1) again, qb position is way overrated by gamblers in almost every cae, and 2), there is a huge difference between a backup being thrown into the middle a game cold without preparing and knowing he's going to be the starter all week and getting to practice with the first team.

of course, there are other factors, but it would not surprise me if these three teams went 2-1 this week.

1. Philly +3-  philly is the worst team of all times, overrated every week with no coaching.  but they've never had a qb so this isn't much of a difference, probably an improvement.  and washington has no pass defense.  this is probably the best situation because foles is a rookie and most people automatically assume he sucks based on last week.  washington needs the game, everyone has written philly off.  i might have to play this one.

Pitt +3-  this will be a hard one.  leftwich looked bad, but the problem is, he really is that bad.  i actually didn't know he was still in the league.  i thought that was jared lorenzen with a spray on tan.  but it still fits this angle so i'll probably play it too.

Chicago +7  another good one.  caompbell is probably the best of the three right now.  he's certainly had the most success in his career.  and this is probably the least line value.  i think SF should be a 6 point favorite with cutler, but then again we think houston and SF are clearly better than chicago which is why we liked houston last week.  i'm the least excited about this one because i don't see much of a line reaction, although 6 to 7 is always something to consider.

we also like: AZ, Clev, Stl, Oak.  and, this is the biggest spread i can remember betting but i think indy is overrated and ready for a beating.  this line should be higher if NE comes to play a full game-  NE.

keep in mind, two weeks ago was the crazy week where almost all favorites covered and we survived ging 3-3.  we figured there would be a reversion last week and bet more usual and had a nice week.  so, we are due for a bad one any week now.

on Stl, i'm worried that we missed the boat by not taking Seattle at home vs the jets last week.  in hindsight, that was one of the better bets one can make in the nfl and we missed it although we love seattle and hate the jets.  we also love Stl, probably more than any team in the nfl, but the jets looked horrible last week and we all know a team is never as bad as they look one week and usually have enough pride and motivation to come back stronger the next week.  so i'm not sold on this play. 

anyway, good luck.



Quality ink 
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#9
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:49:04 AM
Getty,

Nice handles!!!!  

  Mr. Money2BMade 


GB's offensive line is banged up as well. 
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#10
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:52:57 AM
Hugh Green
Hugh Douglas
Hugh Jackman
Hugh Downs
Hugh Jorgan 
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#11
Posted: 11/18/2012 11:56:05 AM
Hugh Mungous  
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#12
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:14:48 PM
  Hugh Also     BOL CD whatever you decide.  If I can sway you one way or  another, I also like GB with MrMoney2BMade.   Looks like a couple of squares on the same team.
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#13
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:19:08 PM
Baby Hughie....
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#14
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:20:47 PM
getty, as much as i hate to say it, i just don't think i can bet jacksonville anymore.  since i usually don't bet against the big underdogs, that probably puts jacksonville games on my no play list where i hardly even look at them and just move on.  jacksonville fell into my buy low/sell high angle last week against the colts and didn't even show up.  fortunately KC was too so i just lost the juice on that angle but if jax could show up at home against a beatable team, i just can't trust them.  that being said, since i'm off them, they probably lose 24-13 today.  the funny thing about those two plays last week is that jax and KC both looked horrible.  the only difference was indy came to play and pittsburgh mailed that one in.  for that reason, i may stay away from KC games too. 

hugh, the line says detroit covers that one but i just can't bring myself to bet detroit.  i'm obviously biased against them though.

getty, all of those look solid.

while i think the GB line is off and i'mn staying away, i also think the dallas line is off but i'm playing it.  so dallas won the battle of the dysfunctional teams this week and now they are big favorites against a team that is actually pretty well coached and always plays hard each week?   i have to bite on that one.

other than badlands, gilmo and vanzak, i just can't check the nfl forum.  it's such a mess in there.  but i bet it wouldn't be too hard to formalize a nice card every week just by going against a few of the idiots in there.

starwink 

what else?

AZ, well that's pretty much an auto bet against Atl who i think is overrated, an idea that has cost me more than i've won this season.

oak- pretty much the same thing, a couple of good wins, well really one, by NO and all of the sudden they back to normal?  i'm going to bet against that.  Oak has put some nice covers together for us this season when playing the better teams (Atl, Pitt) so i think there's a good chance we see a decent game from them.  plus, they were destroyed last week so hopefully they bounce back at home against a weak defense.

i'm still on the fence with Stl. 

the denver line says they probably crush SD.  the lines seem to be more telling in charger games than any other, but i'm not playing it at this point. 



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#15
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:21:29 PM
22, shrimp 
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#16
Posted: 11/19/2012 12:30:40 PM
well 4-3 overral and can't complain about that.  i did play Stl which as i mentioned in badlands thread is a good example of letting biases get in the way of handicapping.  the jets fit my style of handicapping perfectly after that disaster in seattle but my biases for Stl and against the jets completely fucked that up.

anyway, the backup qb's angle goes 1-1. i wish i had put in chicago at +7 for a great middle opportunity but i didn't.  i also forgot that smith might be out in this one and it looks like he is so the backup qb angle really doesn't apply anymore.  with the line move and the two backup qb's, there are just too many variables for me.  i'm not going to play it.

one thing to note for future reference.  yesterday was a great example of when the backup qb angle works and when it doesn't.  first, you have to get value.  in other words, you determine what the spread would be if the starter was in and compare it to the spread with the backup,.  if there is a significant difference, then it is on the way to being a play. 

one factor i failed to mention as to why the backup qb doesn't matter very often and provides for good line value is that with certain teams, another unit will make up the difference and then some.  with pittsburgh, the defense stepped up and kept pittsburgh within the 3.  Blt didn't get an offensive td.   you can see a shitty backup like leftwich and say pitt can't cover or you can see leftwich and see 1), he isn't as bad as he looked last week (he actually made a few bug plays that got the cover), 2) the line move was too much and 3) the defense can get us the cover regardless of what leftwich does unless he just completely sucks.

on the other hand, you have a team like philadelphia that just doesn't give a garbage.  i didn't see it but it sounds like foles wasn't very good.  no surprise there. but how does philly's defense let a rookie qb go 14/15 with 4 td's?  while pittsburgh's defense made up the difference with leftwich, philly's defense said darn it and quit.  i guess i shouldn't be surprised.


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#17
Posted: 11/19/2012 12:39:04 PM
Tucker missing the FG gave Steelers a push or win ATS....And yes he is horrible..tough kid..comes from the inner city...but unless Ben returns they are in trouble...
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#18
Posted: 11/19/2012 1:18:56 PM
pitt is in trouble. i'm surprised their defense is playing as well as it is.  but i agree, without ben, they are going nowhere.  of course, since most of the afc is so bad, they still might make the playoffs. 


i see the line tonight is down to 3- or 3 if you want to pay -130 or so.  that's too big of a move for smith.  i'd be all over SF if cutler was starting.  garbage, if cutler was starting this line would have to be close to even which would mean a definite play on SF.  i just don't get these huge line moves, especially for smith.  i like him better than most but every other part of that team is very good, most of all the coach.  smith is a very replaceable part, particularly for just one game.  i'm very tempted to play SF if it gets to 3 at a reasonable price although i hate reversing an initial read like that. 

does anyone think this line move is justified?
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#19
Posted: 11/19/2012 1:28:44 PM
nothing wrong with getting the best number for the side you like......................
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#20
Posted: 11/19/2012 1:31:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

pitt is in trouble. i'm surprised their defense is playing as well as it is.  but i agree, without ben, they are going nowhere.  of course, since most of the afc is so bad, they still might make the playoffs. 


i see the line tonight is down to 3- or 3 if you want to pay -130 or so.  that's too big of a move for smith.  i'd be all over SF if cutler was starting.  garbage, if cutler was starting this line would have to be close to even which would mean a definite play on SF.  i just don't get these huge line moves, especially for smith.  i like him better than most but every other part of that team is very good, most of all the coach.  smith is a very replaceable part, particularly for just one game.  i'm very tempted to play SF if it gets to 3 at a reasonable price although i hate reversing an initial read like that. 

does anyone think this line move is justified?

no, and I pray it dips below 3 somehow
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#21
Posted: 11/19/2012 1:32:47 PM
I will gladly take the better coached team with a much better offensive line who heavily relies on their run game even with their normal starter in there at home only laying that....

just saying
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#22
Posted: 11/19/2012 1:41:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rocafella:

I will gladly take the better coached team with a much better offensive line who heavily relies on their run game even with their normal starter in there at home only laying that....

just saying


that's why i took the eagles yesterday. 
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#23
Posted: 11/19/2012 1:50:08 PM
Campbell sucks former Deadskin QB...One great year at Auburn....Made him $$$....a nervous wreck he gets fucked up by the Niners tonight...hoping it hits  3.....
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#24
Posted: 11/19/2012 2:01:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



that's why i took the eagles yesterday. 


They have put me into a state of depression, all football season long.  And frustration....they kind of remind me of a drug addiction (if I knew what it felt like)....

Just unbelievably frustrating.  Stubbornness (Reid and this regime) will do that though.
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#25
Posted: 11/19/2012 4:41:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rocafella:



They have put me into a state of depression, all football season long.  And frustration....they kind of remind me of a drug addiction (if I knew what it felt like)....

Just unbelievably frustrating.  Stubbornness (Reid and this regime) will do that though.


it's crazy how dysfunctional this team is.  not sure how it gets fixed any time soon.
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