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Author: [Boxing] Topic: Showtime Saturday
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
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#1
Posted: 7/28/2012 5:21:25 PM
First off, I want to say that this is an excellent doubleheader put together by Showtime, something we didn't see from HBO last weekend. Fights that look good on paper often fail to live up to expectations, but this card should be an exception.

So here are my plays..

Porter is compact and strong, but I don't see him overwhelming Gomez like Alvarez or Cotto have previously. Gomez should have the location advantage and certainly has the experience edge. 

This is a HUGE step up for Porter. Many are down on Gomez, but Alvarez makes people look much worse than they actually are, so I'm willing to give him a pass in that fight. Since the contender finale, Gomez has only lost to Cotto and Alvarez, while defeating former stars like Gatti, Tackie, Soto-Karass and Jose Lois Castillo.

Porter is good, but he isn't the "can't miss" type of prospect people keep saying he is and  I believe this is a pick'em fight.

Gomez +310, 4 units to win 12.4

All I keep hearing is about how Guerrero is moving up two weight classes and he is going to have his hands full with Aydin. I call BULLSHIT. 

Through my eyes Aydin fights like a club fighter. His offensive game plan is to cover up then throw a couple bombs after his opponent gets off. Under no circumstances can he outbox Guerrero and win this fight on the cards. That simply can't and won't happen. Since he throws such wild punches it leaves him wide open to be crushed against a sharp counter puncher. Guerrero will exploit this flaw severely tonight.

Could Guerrero get caught? Absolutely. Will it happen? Probably not. I also don't believe that Aydin is the puncher in this fight, regardless if he is "naturally" bigger. Guerrero's accuracy and short, crisp punches will hurt Aydin throughout this fight. 

Quite honestly, I see Guerrero either stopping Aydin via TKO or Aydin catching him early in this fight. I would suggest that the under is the best bet, but Guerrero is notoriously passive when he piles up a lead and often gives away the latter portion of fights. I don't think that will happen tonight, but this has been a very common theme from him in the past. 

If you want to enjoy the fight and root for blood, take the "fight won't go prop" at +105. I'm standing by my unflattering assessment of Aydin by betting Guerrero ITD, +279, 7.2 units to win 20.
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iCook send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
iCook
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#2
Posted: 7/28/2012 7:27:35 PM
I agree.. The play is taking Aydin by KO and MORE on Guerrero by decision..
I dont see Guererro stopping Aydin AT ALL.. He covers up too much..and Ghost doesnt hit hard enough, especially at 147 vs a true 147lber..
Aydin does leave himself open with he throws bombs but I think Guerrero is gonna do most of his work while Aydin covers up letting Ghost put many rounds in the bank.. Once Aydin needs a KO to win its gonna be a wrap.. 

Im just worried Aydin may wear Ghost down with is power and size.. Aydin needs to go to the body early

My OFFICIAL pic
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walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
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#3
Posted: 7/28/2012 10:58:23 PM
Adding 3 more units on Guerrero ITD, now up to +348, 3 units to win 10.44 units.
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walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
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#4
Posted: 7/29/2012 12:30:46 AM
Good fights. Gomez was game but outclassed in an entertaining fight. Guerrero dominated Aydin for most of the fight, but his lack of power at 147 was rearing it's ugly head as Aydin pushed hard to close the fight.

The ONLY thing I have a problem with (other than losing 14 units) is Aydin's passive-aggressive excuses post fight. C'mon man, you did well and won some people over with your heart. Don't throw away any goodwill points you've earned just to act like you would have beaten him on another night. I loathe that garbage and instantly lose respect for fighters that make up crap. Take your wins like a man, take your losses like a man. 
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iCook send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 7/29/2012 1:15:14 AM
Out of curiosuty, why did you throw units on Guererro ITD?
Guerrero couldnt KO small men at 130.. Aydin is built like a tank..
Anywho WAR WARD!
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walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
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#6
Posted: 7/29/2012 1:24:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iCook:

Out of curiosuty, why did you throw units on Guererro ITD?
Guerrero couldnt KO small men at 130.. Aydin is built like a tank..
Anywho WAR WARD!

I was very comfortable with Guerrero winning the fight. I wasn't going to lay -300 chalk. Aydin was going to get hit a lot, without a doubt. That's exactly what happened but Aydin is a fairly durable guy. He also did good body work very early in the fight that really slowed Guerrero late in that fight. It was about as one sided as I expected, jut not in the exact fashion I initially thought.

Also, I wasn't aware that Aydin was going to wear what looked like sparring gloves. You could have blocked the damn sun with those things..


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