|First off, I want to say that this is an excellent doubleheader put together by Showtime, something we didn't see from HBO last weekend. Fights that look good on paper often fail to live up to expectations, but this card should be an exception.
Posted: 7/28/2012 5:21:25 PM
So here are my plays..
Porter is compact and strong, but I don't see him overwhelming Gomez like Alvarez or Cotto have previously. Gomez should have the location advantage and certainly has the experience edge.
This is a HUGE step up for Porter. Many are down on Gomez, but Alvarez makes people look much worse than they actually are, so I'm willing to give him a pass in that fight. Since the contender finale, Gomez has only lost to Cotto and Alvarez, while defeating former stars like Gatti, Tackie, Soto-Karass and Jose Lois Castillo.
Porter is good, but he isn't the "can't miss" type of prospect people keep saying he is and I believe this is a pick'em fight.
Gomez +310, 4 units to win 12.4
All I keep hearing is about how Guerrero is moving up two weight classes and he is going to have his hands full with Aydin. I call BULLSHIT.
Through my eyes Aydin fights like a club fighter. His offensive game plan is to cover up then throw a couple bombs after his opponent gets off. Under no circumstances can he outbox Guerrero and win this fight on the cards. That simply can't and won't happen. Since he throws such wild punches it leaves him wide open to be crushed against a sharp counter puncher. Guerrero will exploit this flaw severely tonight.
Could Guerrero get caught? Absolutely. Will it happen? Probably not. I also don't believe that Aydin is the puncher in this fight, regardless if he is "naturally" bigger. Guerrero's accuracy and short, crisp punches will hurt Aydin throughout this fight.
Quite honestly, I see Guerrero either stopping Aydin via TKO or Aydin catching him early in this fight. I would suggest that the under is the best bet, but Guerrero is notoriously passive when he piles up a lead and often gives away the latter portion of fights. I don't think that will happen tonight, but this has been a very common theme from him in the past.
If you want to enjoy the fight and root for blood, take the "fight won't go prop" at +105. I'm standing by my unflattering assessment of Aydin by betting Guerrero ITD, +279, 7.2 units to win 20.