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Author: [Tennis] Topic: 2012 WTA Charleston (gc); Davis Cup QF's
AgainstDaConsen send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/2/2012 10:56:25 PM
(544-602 +86.85u) Overall 2012 
(6-3 +3.7u) Charleston 

tues card:

4u
Stosur 2-0*
2u
Wickmayer -255
Wickmayer -4 -110
Wickmayer 2-0 -105
Tatishvilli +135
1u
Vesnina +975
Vesnina Spread*
Vesnina +1.5 Sets*

* Plays are not in because line doesnt exist.... Will post what I get on my lunch Break tom... Hopefully Stosur 2-0 is no worse than -250

- I figure Stosur will make quick work of the very green Hampton... Keep in mind this is a gimmicky surface that no one really plays... Especially young american players... At least Stosur has the benefit of having alot of red clay experience...
- Wickmayer and Tatishvilli follow my idea of playing girls who had success last year on this surface...
- Vesnina made the final last year and despite her struggle in the first round I think she can win... I would be shocked to see Serena play a focused quality match... But with that said she can beat anyone even playing her worst...


gl all and hail kentucky for bailing out every schmuck gambler in the universe tonight...



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#2
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:51:42 AM
vesnina should have a shot to win
tomorrow's weather in charleston is rain all day, i dont know but serena might not want to stay too long in that city.
anyway +975 looks tempting.

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#3
Posted: 4/3/2012 12:28:43 PM
4-0 +8.7u start to the day

forgot to post my futures from the previous thread in this thread....

2u
Stosur o win charleston +530
.5u
Vesnina to win chareson +15070


All pending:

4u
Stosur 2-0 -190
1u
Vesnina +975
Vesnina +7 -115
Vesnina +1.5 Sets +340

gl all

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#4
Posted: 4/3/2012 4:55:02 PM
thank goodness stosur got that done... little scary when she got broken serving for the match.... so far most everything has gone as planned and I am brimming with confidence which is probably not a good thing... it time to inflate the loss totals as I took Vesnina a little bigger and added a few plays.... I feel strongly that she has a chance and hopefully she will cash big time...

(549-602 +99.55u) Overall 2012 
(11-3 +16.4u) Charleston 
(5-0 +12.7u) Today


Pending:

2u
Vesnina +7 -115
Vesnina/Serena Over 17 -130
1u
Vesnina +975
Vesnina First Set +550
Vesnina +1.5 Sets +340
Vesnina 2-0 +1600
Vesnina/Serena Over 2.5 Sets +400

If I lose I likely lose them all... but you gotta go for it sometimes...

gl all
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#5
Posted: 4/3/2012 10:15:32 PM
2-6 -1.5u on vesnina play w/ a future loss

(551-611 +98.05u) Overall 2012 
(13-9 +14.9u) Charleston 

wed:

4u
Petrova 2-0 -240
2u
Mirza/Shvedova -140b, 140r
Zahalova-Strycova +1.5 Set -135
Zahalova-Strycova +3.5 Games +115
Tatishvili +1.5 Sets*
Tatishvili +4 +105
Shvedova +1.5 Sets +105
Shvedova +5 -120
1u
Zahalova-Strycova +180
Zahalova-Strycova 2-0 +375
Tatishvili +210
Tatishvili 2-0*
Shvedova +350
Shvedova 2-0*

*Will post lines on these tomorrow at lunch...  Petrova play not in yet but it is where the line is on pinny right now...

- I love to fade craybas if she gets past the first round of any tourney... Petrova took out a solid clay courter with ease today... Dont see anything complicated here...
- Mirza/Shvedova were champs here last year
- Strycova and Tatshvilli are just continuing my theme of playing people who did decent last year... just give me a set ladies
- Shvedova has a game that I think really fits the surface... 


I will be playing Venus 2-0... Already in for a little at +135 but waiting to post until I see how my day goes...

GL ALL 

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#6
Posted: 4/4/2012 6:03:33 PM

tastishvilli +1.5 was -120, tashvilli 2-0 was +410 and shvedova 2-0 was +450

crappy day, petrova doing the lost puppy routine in the third and 2 of my dogs couldnt cl0se out 1st Sets that they were dominating... Tastishvilli lost 10 of 13 games to end the match.. If you are surprised at my Shvedova ML line then join the club but thats where pinny opened it last night... I had to double check my play but it was +348 last night...

4-9 -10.6u Today
 
Pending and added:
 
5u
Venus -170
Venus 2-0 +135
3u
Venus -3 -120
2u
Mirza/Shvedova -140b, -140r
 

gl all

 

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#7
Posted: 4/4/2012 9:32:37 PM
8-9 +6.15u today

would have been pissed if venus didn't get that first set given the finish...

(559-620 +104.2u) Overall 2012
(21-18 +21.05) Charleston

good week going but it's getting dicey
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#8
Posted: 4/5/2012 1:25:28 AM
Simple, straight forward stuff thurs... all plays not it yet but these are lines available now... 

3u
Mirza/Vesnina over Pavly/Safarova -170, -160r
Shvedova +150
1u
Erakovic +800
Erakovic +1.5 +275
Erakovic +6.5 +100
Shvedova +1.5 -180
Shvedova +3 -115

- Mirza/Vesnina are my pick to reapeat as doubles champs, I will lay the juice all week with them
- My thought that Shvedova's games suits this surface is coming through with a solid beatdown of Wickmayer, now it seems the books agree
- Erakovic is a solid server and seems to be doing well, getting good odds here so I figured a stab was necessary


GL ALL 


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#9
Posted: 4/5/2012 11:10:03 PM
will clean up tomorrow hopefully doubles gets it done

Fri Card

2u
Garrigues /Shvedova -105, +110r


gonna play hercog ML tomorrow for 10-15u
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#10
Posted: 4/5/2012 11:28:21 PM
Davis Cup ties... I see all chalk

5u
France Over USA -240
Czech Rep Over Serbia -180


** I am still working hard on getting these plays in... Just posting the lines as they stand on Pinnacle right now..

GL ALL
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#11
Posted: 4/6/2012 1:20:04 PM
good luck with your picks consen.. I also like the look of Hercog over Petrova..I didn't actually see their games, but Hercog beating Bartoli and Petrova going 3 sets with Craybas makes Hercog look awful tempting for the return shes giving
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#12
Posted: 4/6/2012 5:30:40 PM
got Hercog at +100 last night..  sitting around -120 now... just gonna call it -115

10u
Hercog -115


Havent liked Petrova all week... very inconsistent... I believe she will struggle against a relentless Hercog...

GL ALL
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#13
Posted: 4/6/2012 8:44:56 PM
2-7 -1.8u Last 2 Days

Could have been much worse, books bailed be out with that soft Hercog line...

(561-627 +102.4u) Overall 2012

(23-25 +19.25u) Charleston

still got Stosur future pending and Davis cup plays pending...

Might make a parlay tomorrow, but otherwise no bets tomorrow... If Serena to win Charleston is at -120 or better I will probably hedge the Stosure Future...  But otherwise thats about it... Slim pickens tomorrow... I like the Bryan Bros to get upset on the clay but I already have action with my France play...

GL ALL

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#14
Posted: 4/7/2012 12:57:36 AM
i think stoser will beat serena
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#15
Posted: 4/7/2012 8:32:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kjrpat:

i think stoser will beat serena

i hope so, I have decided to let it ride... I just hate the fact that they are playing at 1pm... You woud think they woud at least push them to the 2nd match with stosur paying 5.5 sets yesterday and serena playing half a set...


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#16
Posted: 4/8/2012 1:53:14 AM
-2u on stosur play will clean up after today

4u
Isner/Tsonga Over 41.5, 42.5 -110, -105
2u
Safarova +5.5 -110
Safarova +515
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#17
Posted: 4/8/2012 3:13:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:


i hope so, I have decided to let it ride... I just hate the fact that they are playing at 1pm... You woud think they woud at least push them to the 2nd match with stosur paying 5.5 sets yesterday and serena playing half a set...




sounds like the event organizers, sponsors, etc. are sliding the match toward the public favorite.
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#18
Posted: 4/8/2012 3:25:05 AM
I like the Isner/ Tsonga over.. I can definitly see it going at least 4 sets
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#19
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:40:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Anent:



sounds like the event organizers, sponsors, etc. are sliding the match toward the public favorite.

i think it was mainly  a tv issue


good stuff from isner i got burnt hard on my davis cup play... 

added:

5u
delpo 3-0 -140
delpo 3-0 
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#20
Posted: 4/8/2012 1:11:48 PM
ADDED:

5u
Garrigues/Shvedova -135, -130, -145, -140r, -125b
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#21
Posted: 4/9/2012 2:52:12 AM
crappy finish to the week

(564-632 +91.45u) Overall 2012
(3-1 +2u) Davis Cup QF
(23-29 +6.3u) Charleston



will start new thread later... plays for tomorrow..

GL ALL

2u
Berlocq -4 -140
Berlocq 2-0 -115
Babos -210
Sadikovic +240, +220b
Halep + GGL +115
1u
Soeda +120r
Gutierrez-Ferrol +200
Phau 2-0 +110


Hving rotten luck lately...  My big play is on Berlocq who I think should dispose of Blake easily... they take the court at 7pm ET so depending on how the day goes and the line, I might make  firly large play on Berlocq ML... riht now its -300 which is more than a little pricey...

Futures:

1u
Barthel to Win Copenhagen +1200
Vinci to Win Barcelona +1200
Ivo to Win Houston +2510
GGL to Win Casablanca +2750
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#22
Posted: 4/9/2012 12:24:08 PM
decent start to the day so I went for Berlocq with the juice... 

3u
Berlocq -335

gl all

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#23
Posted: 4/9/2012 9:32:33 PM
(4-3 +2.2u) Week
(568-635 +93.65u) Overall 2012

glad I made that last bet on berlocq, upset I made the other two

new thread tom

*peace*
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