Hey Fever, appreciate all your work and good luck on this wager as well.
Just wondered: as a Canadian you have access to the European and Asian on line books, I use William Hill, Ladbrokes and Unibet myself, but choices a plenty, in case your local doesn't satisfy all your needs....
CPL XIX Winner. Punter. Scotch lover. Big Man.
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Hey Fever, appreciate all your work and good luck on this wager as well.
Just wondered: as a Canadian you have access to the European and Asian on line books, I use William Hill, Ladbrokes and Unibet myself, but choices a plenty, in case your local doesn't satisfy all your needs....
dang, my book already has it at 3 1/4 at -112. i may as well take it, but hoping it comes down to 3. i don't think BD will just sit back on their laurels and "settle" for a 3-0 defeat. i hope we see 4-5 goals..
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dang, my book already has it at 3 1/4 at -112. i may as well take it, but hoping it comes down to 3. i don't think BD will just sit back on their laurels and "settle" for a 3-0 defeat. i hope we see 4-5 goals..
Pinnacle has the over 3 goals at -159 now and that is pretty much the lowest. Pinnacle also has over 3 1/2 goals at +110.......
That -163 is a lot of juice.....although I too like this over.....I may throw it with a heavy favorite to create a two team parlay and knock that juice down .....although to big a favorite it will still be juiced......I hate juice.....
But I like that over......... Cheers....cash that ticker fever....
INVESTINSPORTS
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Pinnacle has the over 3 goals at -159 now and that is pretty much the lowest. Pinnacle also has over 3 1/2 goals at +110.......
That -163 is a lot of juice.....although I too like this over.....I may throw it with a heavy favorite to create a two team parlay and knock that juice down .....although to big a favorite it will still be juiced......I hate juice.....
But I like that over......... Cheers....cash that ticker fever....
I don't like "the juice" either but under 150 I snagged it. I would bet the 3.25 on this given I project 4 goals in the match but I chose the 3 + juice, (a) because it was offerred and (b) if we get a dud and a 3 goal game, I've got protection.
If we really get a "dud" and see under 3 then it's all a mute point.
Cheers bud.
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Investinsports ....
I don't like "the juice" either but under 150 I snagged it. I would bet the 3.25 on this given I project 4 goals in the match but I chose the 3 + juice, (a) because it was offerred and (b) if we get a dud and a 3 goal game, I've got protection.
If we really get a "dud" and see under 3 then it's all a mute point.
Fever.... You and all those who take that at 3 should have a great chance to cash it at 3 or at least push it. I capped this matchup last night and the 5 scores and scenerios I came up with were 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and 4-2. That 2-0 score results only if Dortmund can play keep away and lose 2-0. I don't see it ...but?!
Here is one funny thing.....had a guy from Miami email me and asked about putting up $2500 to win $1000 on the over 2 1/2 for that game......now this guy knows me and I been taken care of him for 1 1/2 years he knows u never recommend juice like that.....but....I told him if he has it to risk, needs the action, doesnt mind losing it than go for it......but thatif he game me the money to put on it......on principal alone......iI wouldn't do it cause it means to much to me a loss like that.
He should cash tho......everyone on the I've should cash tho.....unless ............. Cheers Fever..... Keep up the nice work......tour reads are fabulous and spot on
INVESTINSPORTS
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Fever.... You and all those who take that at 3 should have a great chance to cash it at 3 or at least push it. I capped this matchup last night and the 5 scores and scenerios I came up with were 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and 4-2. That 2-0 score results only if Dortmund can play keep away and lose 2-0. I don't see it ...but?!
Here is one funny thing.....had a guy from Miami email me and asked about putting up $2500 to win $1000 on the over 2 1/2 for that game......now this guy knows me and I been taken care of him for 1 1/2 years he knows u never recommend juice like that.....but....I told him if he has it to risk, needs the action, doesnt mind losing it than go for it......but thatif he game me the money to put on it......on principal alone......iI wouldn't do it cause it means to much to me a loss like that.
He should cash tho......everyone on the I've should cash tho.....unless ............. Cheers Fever..... Keep up the nice work......tour reads are fabulous and spot on
Investinsports ... thanks bud .. appreciate the feedback and the information.
I hear you on the keep away ,,, however all 4 of my scenarios/projections just don't allow for them to do that. I cannot expect that Dortmund will go into the Santiago Bernabéu and play "hold the fort" against Madrid.
I was telling my son this the other day ... (and forget the fact he's a Real Madrid fan lol) but if there is any team that can reverse a 3-0 away leg at home in this tournament it is Real Madrid and I put Bayern Munich in that category (if they had happened to be in that spot). Why? No two teams offer up as many attacking options than them. Barcelona is one dimentional in their approach. Everyone knows what they are going to do ... the onus is on you the opponent to stop them.
As for Dortmund, they are a young team no doubt and playing with a ton of energy... however, remember what they did, they did at HOME and granted they were the only team not to lose at the Bernabéu, it will be a mighty task to just sit back and try to hold off a team with so many attack options.
Dortmund needs to play their game to be succesful. I've watched a ton of Madrd football over the last two years and there was something off in that game ... the team almost looked dejected after the first goal and seemed to hang their heads from the outset. I do not expect them to be as listless in the return leg and we all know, ONE early goal and 90,000+ screaming fans and we might start seeing the true test of Dortmund's nerves .... and at that point, anything can happen ...
However, this is not to say that Madrid will overturn the deficit... I'm merely saying they are capable of it. Hwever, to do so will require goals and will also in turn allow gaps for Dortmund to exploit which is why the safer bet is the over ... This is a Madrid team that hasn't given up yet. Heck, a 2-0 lead for Madrid, should it happen, will be enough to really put the heat on.
Whatever happens, it is going to be a fun match and will come down to whether or not chances are buried because there will be chances.
Cheers
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Investinsports ... thanks bud .. appreciate the feedback and the information.
I hear you on the keep away ,,, however all 4 of my scenarios/projections just don't allow for them to do that. I cannot expect that Dortmund will go into the Santiago Bernabéu and play "hold the fort" against Madrid.
I was telling my son this the other day ... (and forget the fact he's a Real Madrid fan lol) but if there is any team that can reverse a 3-0 away leg at home in this tournament it is Real Madrid and I put Bayern Munich in that category (if they had happened to be in that spot). Why? No two teams offer up as many attacking options than them. Barcelona is one dimentional in their approach. Everyone knows what they are going to do ... the onus is on you the opponent to stop them.
As for Dortmund, they are a young team no doubt and playing with a ton of energy... however, remember what they did, they did at HOME and granted they were the only team not to lose at the Bernabéu, it will be a mighty task to just sit back and try to hold off a team with so many attack options.
Dortmund needs to play their game to be succesful. I've watched a ton of Madrd football over the last two years and there was something off in that game ... the team almost looked dejected after the first goal and seemed to hang their heads from the outset. I do not expect them to be as listless in the return leg and we all know, ONE early goal and 90,000+ screaming fans and we might start seeing the true test of Dortmund's nerves .... and at that point, anything can happen ...
However, this is not to say that Madrid will overturn the deficit... I'm merely saying they are capable of it. Hwever, to do so will require goals and will also in turn allow gaps for Dortmund to exploit which is why the safer bet is the over ... This is a Madrid team that hasn't given up yet. Heck, a 2-0 lead for Madrid, should it happen, will be enough to really put the heat on.
Whatever happens, it is going to be a fun match and will come down to whether or not chances are buried because there will be chances.
FYI, my local has moved to 3.5 over -115 this morning ... still trying to figure out whose odds platform they are using ... locals ALWAYS follow another book's platform.
FYI, there are still 3's out there ... BetCris and Canbet to name a couple still have 3's hung on this game. Also, most of the European books will allow you to buy your own "alternate" total.
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FYI, my local has moved to 3.5 over -115 this morning ... still trying to figure out whose odds platform they are using ... locals ALWAYS follow another book's platform.
FYI, there are still 3's out there ... BetCris and Canbet to name a couple still have 3's hung on this game. Also, most of the European books will allow you to buy your own "alternate" total.
So what u are saying is....."that there is a chance it can go under"............OK.......I'm just having fun and kidding!
My dumb comment reminds me of that movie Dumb and Dumber when Jim Carry asks the hot chick .....what are the chances that we can be together.......and her response is like 1 in a million........and his priceless response was....
"So what your saying is there is a chance"
You all should cash that over.... INVESTINSPORTS
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So what u are saying is....."that there is a chance it can go under"............OK.......I'm just having fun and kidding!
My dumb comment reminds me of that movie Dumb and Dumber when Jim Carry asks the hot chick .....what are the chances that we can be together.......and her response is like 1 in a million........and his priceless response was....
FYI .. BET 365 has seen Madrid to qualify bet down from +520 to +350
Also, here are the odds on correct scores:
I've put in bold what the Book is offering as the "favorite" or "most probable" correct score according to their odds. NOTE.. THIS IS NO WAY A PREDICTIVE MEASURE/TOOL .. it is simply posted to show you how this book is pricing the score and how the odds are show what THEY expect.
1-0 +1200
2-0+1000 (BR Advances)
2-1 +800 (Borussia Dortmund advances)
3-0 +1200 (RM would advance)
3-1 +900 (would mean extra time)
3-2 +1600 (BR would advance)
... many other higher scoring + higher odds available.
As for Dortmund correct score odds
1-0 +2200
2-0 +3200
2-1 +1600
3-0 +5000
3-1 +3300
DRAWS
0-0 +2200
1-1 +1000
2-2 +1200
3-3 +3300
4-4 +10000
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FYI .. BET 365 has seen Madrid to qualify bet down from +520 to +350
Also, here are the odds on correct scores:
I've put in bold what the Book is offering as the "favorite" or "most probable" correct score according to their odds. NOTE.. THIS IS NO WAY A PREDICTIVE MEASURE/TOOL .. it is simply posted to show you how this book is pricing the score and how the odds are show what THEY expect.
1-0 +1200
2-0+1000 (BR Advances)
2-1 +800 (Borussia Dortmund advances)
3-0 +1200 (RM would advance)
3-1 +900 (would mean extra time)
3-2 +1600 (BR would advance)
... many other higher scoring + higher odds available.
Can't lay the juice on the total so I'm going with..
CHAMPS LEAGUE:
(1)Double result (halftime & game) REAL/REAL +110 risking a half unit
(2)Correct score REAL 2-1 +800 risking 0.05 units
(3)Correct score REAL 3-1 +900 risking 0.05 units
And the first bet qualifies me for a free half unit bet at bet365 now. I was going to go with Ronaldo to score first like I do in most games he plays BUT it's down from the usual +335 to +220 so I may just go with a correct score or something at least +300 or so .......anyone have any suggestions on what a good live play would be ??
Oh I also like the double result of a FH draw and then REAL to win which pays about +350 right now,then only issue is I can't win both and it cuts into the potential profits.
Thanx again for all the help Dec,stay hot and kick some behind today.
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Can't lay the juice on the total so I'm going with..
CHAMPS LEAGUE:
(1)Double result (halftime & game) REAL/REAL +110 risking a half unit
(2)Correct score REAL 2-1 +800 risking 0.05 units
(3)Correct score REAL 3-1 +900 risking 0.05 units
And the first bet qualifies me for a free half unit bet at bet365 now. I was going to go with Ronaldo to score first like I do in most games he plays BUT it's down from the usual +335 to +220 so I may just go with a correct score or something at least +300 or so .......anyone have any suggestions on what a good live play would be ??
Oh I also like the double result of a FH draw and then REAL to win which pays about +350 right now,then only issue is I can't win both and it cuts into the potential profits.
Thanx again for all the help Dec,stay hot and kick some behind today.
Had REAL won the FH and my "main" play still been alive and well I would used my free bet to take a shot at a huge +$ play like Ozil to score first at +1400 but since it lost I'll be more conservative.
CHAMPS LEAGUE:
(1)Real Madrid "team total" over 1.5 goals +120 risking a half unit (free bet)
(2)Ronaldo to score the first goal of the match +400 risking 0.1 units
(3)Lewandowski to score at any time +300 risking 0.1 units
I could see Lewandowski scoring on a counter late.
Shoulda be an exciting SH and I still like my chances on the REAL 2-1 final score play.
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Had REAL won the FH and my "main" play still been alive and well I would used my free bet to take a shot at a huge +$ play like Ozil to score first at +1400 but since it lost I'll be more conservative.
CHAMPS LEAGUE:
(1)Real Madrid "team total" over 1.5 goals +120 risking a half unit (free bet)
(2)Ronaldo to score the first goal of the match +400 risking 0.1 units
(3)Lewandowski to score at any time +300 risking 0.1 units
I could see Lewandowski scoring on a counter late.
Shoulda be an exciting SH and I still like my chances on the REAL 2-1 final score play.
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