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Author:	[Soccer] Topic: Champs Wednesplays
BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#1 Posted: 4/4/2012 11:28:45 AM My statistical inspiration today is based on the frequency rate of away teams scoring in 2nd leg Quarter final matches. In the last 5 years (20 games) they away squad has scored in 14 fixtures...hitting at 70%. APOEL team Total Over 0.5 +184 Real Madrid has only kept 2 clean sheets at home in 2012 (2 out of 11) Chelsea vs Benfica Both teams to score -125 Reduce juice on Benfica and omitting need of playing the over. A mesh of both plays. Real Madrid vs APOEL...Real up 3-0 on aggregate...this tie is done...so expect changes from the home squad....But remember that their bench out classes their opponents. I like the idea of goals being scored based on the theory of space....Real at home will be able to get any space they require and goal opportunities should arise....and the fact that this tie is done will leave Real weary of getting any yellows or suspension for their next round...therefore creating no need for tackling and creating some space for APOEL.. Real Madrid vs APOEL Over 3.5 -107 Chelsea vs Benfica...Toughest call of all quarter finals. Chelsea have been in some form, but Benfica have performed well on away fixtures this year in Champs League. Drogba not being 100% is troublesome....I have the feeling that the refs somehow will leave their mark in this game...Penalty/ Red Card..? Only angle I like is that Benfica need to chase...so I will expect some flow to this game....I'll translate flow into goal opportunites that get blocked for corners. Chelsea vs Benfica 1st Half Corners Over 5 -121 To All .....I really want to play Chelsea to score a penalty +550.....may add closer to game time.
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DiamondJack	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: bet365 \|
Captain Joined: Dec 2009 Posts: 9618 Location: Ontario	#2 Posted: 4/4/2012 11:31:11 AM Great info as always BGB
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GambleForProfit	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
All-Star Joined: Oct 2011 Posts: 10731 Location: Connecticut	#3 Posted: 4/4/2012 11:42:43 AM BOL BGB I like Apoel to score Al's looks like we might be the only ones
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freestlyin	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Hall of Fame Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 24016 Location: United States	#4 Posted: 4/4/2012 11:47:39 AM BUBBA BEST OF LUCK ON YOUR PLAYS TODAY
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Oilman58	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2007 Posts: 1202 Location: United States	#5 Posted: 4/4/2012 12:06:15 PM Bubba how about this Apoel to score first +715 Real has given up quite a few first goals and still beaten teams by 3 goals has great value what you think
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BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#6 Posted: 4/4/2012 12:36:17 PM Oilman58...Sometimes the best way to score a goal on a great team is to catch them early before they started sweating....at that price why not a small action play.......I'm hoping for a charity goal later on the match.
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BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#7 Posted: 4/4/2012 12:39:13 PM GambleForProfit....I think there's Ganda also... DJ freestylin...same to you.. kind sir.
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BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#8 Posted: 4/4/2012 12:41:08 PM Adding: Chelsea to score a penalty +500....Line dropped.
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Barbarossa	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Legend Joined: Aug 2009 Posts: 82568 Location: California	#9 Posted: 4/4/2012 1:15:13 PM Bubba BOL
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Disbarred	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Nov 2009 Posts: 8140 Location: Texas	#10 Posted: 4/4/2012 2:03:52 PM BOL today, Bubba! WIN BIG!!!!
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ajpoker	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Mar 2007 Posts: 1884 Location: Illinois	#11 Posted: 4/4/2012 2:40:30 PM BGB!
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spockgato	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 9876 Location:	#12 Posted: 4/4/2012 2:41:16 PM bubba
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ibra_inter8	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
Rookie Joined: Jan 2008 Posts: 943 Location: Quebec	#13 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:07:44 PM Nice call on the penalty
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NotSoTinyTim	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 102 Location:	#14 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:07:45 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by BigGameBubba: .....I really want to play Chelsea to score a penalty +550.....may add closer to game time. outstanding call here!
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Be2winn	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2010 Posts: 4576 Location: Texas	#15 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:12:54 PM you are the man!!! BGB
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Malachiwhy	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Feb 2010 Posts: 7319 Location: Wisconsin	#16 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:28:10 PM Great call on the Penalty BGB
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smokebugsy	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 1179 Location:	#17 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:36:21 PM
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BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#18 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:38:32 PM Barbarossa Disbarred...most likely gonna tail along with Santos Ajpoker Spockgato Ibra_Inter8 NotSoTinyTim Be2winn...means a lot coming from the hottest capper around. Mala...How've you been? Hope all is well.
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NotSoTinyTim	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 102 Location:	#19 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:41:04 PM have over 2.5 chelsea/benfica. should i hedge w/under 2.5 @ +117?
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BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#20 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:42:07 PM Corners at half...4... Benfica down to 10 men...Both teams to score wager don't look likely. Going to need a nice second half in the Real game....a goal a piece in the half would make my day.
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BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#21 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:45:23 PM smokebugsy NotSoTinyTim....50 -50 if you ask me....if you want to live another day..then buy out....if you feel like Chelsea pouring it on....let it ride...The over is a popular play...so maybe the buyout is best....Didn't really answer your question... However you decide.
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smokebugsy	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 1179 Location:	#22 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:54:38 PM I have Chelsea over 2.5 also with no live betting option. Cant believe they didn't score on that last play. Right in front of the goal and you miss the pass. Damn. Hopefully we can get one quick
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BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#23 Posted: 4/4/2012 4:30:01 PM APOEL...Benfica....Real Madrid..........
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BigGameBubba	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 5021 Location:	#24 Posted: 4/4/2012 4:34:06 PM 4-1 +7.63........Great Day....see you all for Europa.
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NotSoTinyTim	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 102 Location:	#25 Posted: 4/4/2012 4:35:36 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by NotSoTinyTim: have over 2.5 chelsea/benfica. should i hedge w/under 2.5 @ +117? didn't hedge. weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
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