Champs Wednesplays

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Author: [Soccer] Topic: Champs Wednesplays
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 11:28:45 AM
My statistical inspiration today is based on the frequency rate of away teams scoring in 2nd leg Quarter final matches. In the last 5 years (20 games) they away squad has scored in 14 fixtures...hitting at 70%.


APOEL team Total Over 0.5 +184
Real Madrid has only kept 2 clean sheets at home in 2012 (2 out of 11)

Chelsea vs Benfica Both teams to score -125
Reduce juice on Benfica and omitting need of playing the over. A mesh of both plays. 



Real Madrid vs APOEL...Real up 3-0 on aggregate...this tie is done...so expect changes from the home squad....But remember that their bench out classes their opponents. I like the idea of goals being scored based on the theory of space....Real at home will be able to get any space they require and goal opportunities should arise....and the fact that this tie is done will leave Real weary of getting any yellows or suspension for their next round...therefore creating no need for tackling and creating some space for APOEL..


Real Madrid vs APOEL Over 3.5 -107


Chelsea vs Benfica...Toughest call of all quarter finals. Chelsea have been in some form, but Benfica have performed well on away fixtures this year in Champs League. Drogba not being 100% is troublesome....I have the feeling that the refs somehow will leave their mark in this game...Penalty/ Red Card..? Only angle I like is that Benfica need to chase...so I will expect some flow to this game....I'll translate flow into goal opportunites that get blocked for corners.

Chelsea vs Benfica 1st Half Corners Over 5 -121




 To All




.....I really want to play Chelsea to score a penalty +550.....may add closer to game time.
DiamondJack PM DiamondJack
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Posted: 4/4/2012 11:31:11 AM
Great info as always BGB
GambleForProfit PM GambleForProfit
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Posted: 4/4/2012 11:42:43 AM
BOL BGB  I like Apoel to score Al's looks like we might be the only ones
freestlyin PM freestlyin
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Posted: 4/4/2012 11:47:39 AM
BUBBA

BEST OF LUCK ON YOUR PLAYS TODAY 
Oilman58 PM Oilman58
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Posted: 4/4/2012 12:06:15 PM
Bubba how about this Apoel to score first +715 Real has given up quite a few first goals and still beaten teams by 3 goals has great value what you think
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 12:36:17 PM
Oilman58...Sometimes the best way to score a goal on a great team is to catch them early before they started sweating....at that price why not a small action play.......I'm hoping for a charity goal later on the match.
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 12:39:13 PM
 GambleForProfit....I think there's Ganda also...

 DJ

 freestylin...same to you.. kind sir.
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 12:41:08 PM
Adding:  Chelsea to score a penalty +500....Line dropped.
Barbarossa PM Barbarossa
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Posted: 4/4/2012 1:15:13 PM
Bubba BOL
Disbarred PM Disbarred
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Posted: 4/4/2012 2:03:52 PM

BOL today, Bubba! 

WIN BIG!!!!

ajpoker PM ajpoker
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Posted: 4/4/2012 2:40:30 PM
BGB!
spockgato PM spockgato
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Posted: 4/4/2012 2:41:16 PM
bubba
ibra_inter8 PM ibra_inter8
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:07:44 PM
Nice call on the penalty
NotSoTinyTim PM NotSoTinyTim
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:07:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigGameBubba:

 
.....I really want to play Chelsea to score a penalty +550.....may add closer to game time.

 outstanding call here!
Be2winn PM Be2winn
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:12:54 PM
you are the man!!! BGB 
Malachiwhy PM Malachiwhy
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:28:10 PM
Great call on the Penalty BGB
Posted using a mobile device.
smokebugsy PM smokebugsy
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:36:21 PM
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:38:32 PM
 Barbarossa

Disbarred...most likely gonna tail along with Santos

Ajpoker

Spockgato

 Ibra_Inter8

NotSoTinyTim

 Be2winn...means a lot coming from the hottest capper around.

 Mala...How've you been? Hope all is well.
NotSoTinyTim PM NotSoTinyTim
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:41:04 PM
have over 2.5 chelsea/benfica. should i hedge w/under 2.5 @ +117?
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:42:07 PM
Corners at half...4...   

Benfica down to 10 men...Both teams to score wager don't look likely.


Going to need a nice second half in the Real game....a goal a piece in the half would make my day.
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:45:23 PM
 smokebugsy

NotSoTinyTim....50 -50 if you ask me....if you want to live another day..then buy out....if you feel like Chelsea pouring it on....let it ride...The over is a popular play...so maybe the buyout is best....Didn't really answer your question... However you decide.
smokebugsy PM smokebugsy
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:54:38 PM
I have Chelsea over 2.5 also with no live betting option. Cant believe they didn't score on that last play. Right in front of the goal and you miss the pass. Damn. Hopefully we can get one quick
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 4:30:01 PM
APOEL...Benfica....Real Madrid..........
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 4/4/2012 4:34:06 PM
4-1 +7.63........Great Day....see you all for Europa.
NotSoTinyTim PM NotSoTinyTim
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Posted: 4/4/2012 4:35:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NotSoTinyTim:

have over 2.5 chelsea/benfica. should i hedge w/under 2.5 @ +117?

didn't hedge.

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!! 
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