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Money Ball, Friday 8.03.2012

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Posted: #1

8/2/2012 = 3-1, +339

17-4-1 +1550 in four days should be acceptable.

My bookie   

5 & 9 Inning Plays 8.3.2012

Diamondbacks RL, -.5 +125, RL -1.5 +145, (Kennedy / Blanton) 

Mariners +210, +235, (Millwood / Sabathia)

Angels -140, -134, (Greinke / Humber) 

Cubs +141, +143, (Samardzija / Billingsley)

BOL

All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at 5 Dimes as I type the plays

5 Inning YTD: 66-78-15, -635 9 Inning YTD: 121-114, +2,554 NET. +1,918 (+5.1% RoR)

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
How has playing both 5 and 9 helped you out? What made you play f5 and full game on all your plays.

Thinking about trying it
 
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Posted: #3
gl Key 
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by TurnstoneMoney:

How has playing both 5 and 9 helped you out? What made you play f5 and full game on all your plays.

Thinking about trying it
The last few years I was playing 5 inning only, but this year I got off to a really rough start. What pissed me off was a high percentage of my 5 inning losers were winning in 9 innings. DAMN. So, I started going with one 5 & 9 play per day and more 9 inning plays. That worked very well as the units and ROR indicate. But, time marches on and I noticed my 9 inning winners were also winning in 5, so I started to play them both. The basis of 5 inning play is that you match up offenses and starters only, you never worry about bullpens, managers or pinch hitters, but if you do that accurately you probably have a lead heading into the final 4 innings and not many games reverse direction after that. Given a 6 or 7 inning winning performance and a lead at 5 by my chosen starter, and a 5 inning losing performance by the other guy, I will take any bullpen versus any other bullpen and any manager against any other. Last night I won with the Angels in 5 and lost in 9, but so what? I still netted a profit on that game and those reversals happen less often than people think. This year over 60% of the scoring in a regulation 9 inning game happens in the first 5 innings, and that usually results in the win or loss.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #5
halos (yes) and cubs have potential
 
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Posted: #6

Our cards look remarkably similar.......I damn near played the Cubbies as well but my pantry of shit teams was full with my Padres play

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by mmac66:

Our cards look remarkably similar.......I damn near played the Cubbies as well but my pantry of shit teams was full with my Padres play

Shit teams are this time of year. Even Covers staff encourages members to play the proven winners, without regard for the fact that they have priced themselves out of the market and can't carry the load anymore.


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #8
Similar picks from what I weeded out. But I'll try the other teams as well. 

Hey Key do you ever make out parlays or just the straight up 5 inning and 9 inning bets?
 
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Posted: #9
I feel like SEA is presenting a ton of value but afraid to pull the trigger vs CC. He has a dominate history vs the M's. What's your justification for SEA tonight? GL
 
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Posted: #10
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #11
i like the mariners, they're hot
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by kjmontalv:

I feel like SEA is presenting a ton of value but afraid to pull the trigger vs CC. He has a dominate history vs the M's. What's your justification for SEA tonight? GL

Millwood has pitched well against the Yanks, Seattle has played well lately and much better Away, and CC has given up 9 runs in his last 13IP.

BOL on your plays today Key!! 
 
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Posted: #13
I see that Millwood has been very consistent vs NYY and pitches better away. I guess is there anything else I'm missing here? Any thoughts on +1.5?
 
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Posted: #14
i hope u go 4-0
 
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Posted: #15
i hope u go 4-0
 
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Posted: #16
Well actually you hope he goes 8-0 since there's 8 bets...lol 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Shit teams are this time of year. Even Covers staff encourages members to play the proven winners, without regard for the fact that they have priced themselves out of the market and can't carry the load anymore.



Actually they just had a front page article on how the big underdogs are really profitable this time of year.

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by kjmontalv:

I feel like SEA is presenting a ton of value but afraid to pull the trigger vs CC. He has a dominate history vs the M's. What's your justification for SEA tonight? GL
How about 6 X the profit potential per dollar in what reality caps as a near even game? The -255 is public perception, that's all.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:


Actually they just had a front page article on how the big underdogs are really profitable this time of year.
Wow, I pay so little attention to the front page I must have missed it. Did they change staff writers or something?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #20
Nice run Key...

Cubs the barking dog on the card...
 
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Posted: #21
Got ya. Just fishing to see if I missed anything other than the value. 
 
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Posted: #22
GL
 
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Posted: #23
BOL to you, dude! 
 
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Posted: #24
When I opened this thread, I thought you would have been on the Royals tonight. I know I will be. Texas coming off a huge series and the Royals still playing at home...I will try and take my chances with them. Good luck on your plays tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #25
blanton traded. Kendricks in...
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