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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Blind's ML Parlays 2nd 30 Days
Blind_Monkey send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 5/13/2012 12:01:24 PM
In my previous thread we ended my 1st 30 days as follows. I think I did very good. I,m hoping 2nd month is a just as good.

YTD 23 Wins 97 Loss =
+56.16 Units

Starting Bankroll 8,000.00
Current Bankroll 14,211.00

First 30 Day Summary (Apr 13-May 12)

Return on 80 Units(Start) Bankroll 56.16/80=
+70.2%
Return on 120 Units Bet 56.16/120= +46.8%
Return on 8,000(Start) Bankroll 6211/8000=
+77.64%
Return on 14,000 in Total Bets 6211/14000=
+44.36%

Days Win/Loss 17 W 13 L =
56.67%
Games Win/Loss 65 W 50 L =
56.52%

Sunday May 13 ML Parlays


WAS(+110),ATL(+136),MIN(+134) 1 U to Win +10.59 U
WAS(+110),ATL(+136),LAA(+120) 1 U to Win +9.9 U
WAS(+110),MIN(+134),LAA(+120) 1 U to Win +9.81 U
ATL(+136),MIN(+134),LAA(+120) 1 U to Win +11.15 U
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#2
Posted: 5/13/2012 1:14:21 PM
I forgot to mention that 1 Unit = 175.00 and I expect to increase it as I win more.
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#3
Posted: 5/13/2012 1:24:05 PM
I don't understand your system, but your doing good and bol to you! 
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#4
Posted: 5/13/2012 1:48:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by exshot:

I don't understand your system, but your doing good and bol to you! 


Thanks exshot. Nobody understands my system because I haven't posted that info. It could be dangerous to do that.And keep in mind that this is just a trial of what I have found.I am always trying to develope better pick methods. The rest is easy once you have the picks. Just round robin them. Always bet just 1 Unit per parlay.

Anyway, I can tell you that my picks have absolutely nothing to do with what pitcher is playing or who is in the lineups. I can also say that it is trend picking. Some trends are hidden within a trend,but you can always find something that works (at least for a while).
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#5
Posted: 5/13/2012 1:50:23 PM
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#6
Posted: 5/13/2012 4:02:56 PM
In it to win it!
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#7
Posted: 5/13/2012 5:50:03 PM
Great work Blind!...Do you ever do any hedging when the opportunity comes up...possible tonite with LAA - TEX?

Also, what % of your bank roll do you use per unit play?
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#8
Posted: 5/13/2012 6:07:26 PM
Parlays look pretty good! Very solid picks hope you cash tonight 
I'm sure you'll hedge if only laa/tex is left but BOL Blindmonkey! Keep up the good work!
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#9
Posted: 5/13/2012 7:34:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheEtrain:

Great work Blind!...Do you ever do any hedging when the opportunity comes up...possible tonite with LAA - TEX?

Also, what % of your bank roll do you use per unit play?


I havn't ever hedged my bets cause I'm just learning about those types of bets.Although if anyone could answer about how many Units to put on TEX assuming WAS wins their game, I'm sure it would be very much appreciated.
theETtrain I try to have about 80 units and as my wins increase so do my amount per Unit. I bet 1.25% per parlay.
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#10
Posted: 5/13/2012 7:49:21 PM
Thanks BM...

Here is a link for a simple hedging calculator... http://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php
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#11
Posted: 5/13/2012 7:56:10 PM
Technically you hedge by half the amount of potential win, so you have a guaranteed profit of 50%. So for tonight, if LAA is the only leg left, you have potential 30.86U profit risk. To hedge you would bet enough on Tex to win 50% of that and thereby locking in pure profit.

Since the odds on Tex atm are -130, you will have to adjust the "to win amount" and it wont be exact 50%. Meaning you would not want to risk 20.06U to win 15.43U in case LAA wins because your net profit will then be only @10.8U

Its probably close to 'risk' 17.43U on Tex at -130 to win 13.41U. Then if Tex wins you win 13.41U. If LAA wins, you win 30.86 and lose 17.43U, thereby netting 13.43U.

Above bet still does not account for loss of 3U on the parlay cost if LAA loses. To account for that you hedge by betting 18.65U on Tex ML to win 14.35U.

So if tex wins you win 14.35U less 3U parlay loss = 11.35U profit
if LAA wins you win 30.86 less hedge bet loss of 18.65U = 12U profit.

BOL.
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#12
Posted: 5/13/2012 8:20:34 PM
I'd take Texas -1 for the heck of it
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#13
Posted: 5/13/2012 8:34:40 PM
Wow.. Tough break on nats.. However, great work all around.
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#14
Posted: 5/13/2012 8:36:19 PM
wow last minute home run 
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#15
Posted: 5/13/2012 9:14:18 PM
hope the angels come thru for you


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#16
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:23:58 AM
Freaking Votto went yard in bottom of the ninth with 2 outs for a grand salami. I don't know what it is, but this season so far has a lot of late inning collapses. Are the batters that much better than these relief pitchers?
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#17
Posted: 5/14/2012 8:38:31 AM
ya on Atlanta   g.l.
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#18
Posted: 5/14/2012 9:19:00 AM
forget about closers!!!!they suck!! if I am mgr. and my pitcher has no problem in the 8th inning....he's pitching the 9th...add up the blown saves in mlb and most were setup in the 8th by pitchers who blew thru the inning. Blind I love what ur doing with the parlays but i noticed your highest win % is on the top line. are those ur straight bets if you were betting single plays??  had a horse guy years ago who would take a longshot and wheel him with the field in exacts to try and make a score. your dog parlays remind me of that system....good work..
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#19
Posted: 5/14/2012 9:22:01 AM
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#20
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:05:41 PM
I am used to the types of things that are causing me to loose games like what happened to WAS last night. I don`t get upset by them because it causes me to make stupid bets. Keep my emotions in check and good money management are what I am all about. For example, with todays games my gut is screaming at me to make changes, but I ignore it because these are the games I have been dealt.(a Grand Slam today would be sweet indeed).

Thanks to TheEtrain for the link to the hedging calculator. I have been plugging figures into it and I love it.

Thanks to JBecks12 for taking the time to do a write up and an excellant explanation into Sunday nights possible hedging scenario.That really got me thinking.

gillster18  On Saturday I noticed the same thing as you about the 1st parlay hitting more than the others. I have been thinking about how to take best advantage of that fact. And no I am not yet using just those games for my single straight bets. I might wait a bit more for more results. 


Results for Sunday May 13 ML Parlays


WAS(+110),ATL(+136),MIN(+134) 1 U to Win +10.59 U= Loss
WAS(+110),ATL(+136),LAA(+120) 1 U to Win +9.9 U= Loss
WAS(+110),MIN(+134),LAA(+120) 1 U to Win +9.81 U= Loss
ATL(+136),MIN(+134),LAA(+120) 1 U to Win +11.15 U= Loss
YTD 23 Wins 101 Loss = +56.16 Units

Starting Bankroll 8,000.00
Current Bankroll 13,511.00

Monday May 14 ML Parlays

HOU(+162),TB(+126),SEA(+162) 1 U to Win +14.51 U
HOU(+162),TB(+126),OAK(+184) 1 U to Win +15.82 U
HOU(+162),SEA(+162),OAK(+184) 1 U to Win +18.5 U
TB(+126),SEA(+162),OAK(+184) 1 U to Win +15.82 U
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#21
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:21:21 PM

Missed a stat update.                                                           YTD should read  23 Wins 101Loss = +52.16 Units

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#22
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:45:49 PM
Low risk high reward! I like it!
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#23
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:48:00 PM
You do mostly underdogs and money line of four team combos, this is what I see.  No run lines, over-unders, no props, mixed sports etc.  You raise your unit amount as profits increase, you do 30 day totals to gauge progress for money management.  If you wagered your bets individually how good would the profits be?  I have read by posters saying to never place the same team across multiple parlays, yet this is done daily by your plays.  So either you have found out something new or you are breaking the trend.  Whatever it is, you have found success so keep this up.  I'd like to see this work across all sports  and all seasons!  Good luck and hopefully I can see you in the Fall.
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#24
Posted: 5/14/2012 2:10:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

You do mostly underdogs and money line of four team combos, this is what I see.  No run lines, over-unders, no props, mixed sports etc.  You raise your unit amount as profits increase, you do 30 day totals to gauge progress for money management.  If you wagered your bets individually how good would the profits be?  I have read by posters saying to never place the same team across multiple parlays, yet this is done daily by your plays.  So either you have found out something new or you are breaking the trend.  Whatever it is, you have found success so keep this up.  I'd like to see this work across all sports  and all seasons!  Good luck and hopefully I can see you in the Fall.


For the purpose of this thread (ML Parlays), I don't post other plays that I make. I do other sports,O/U,Props.I like to place same teams in multiple(but not all) parlays but you will lose either 0 or 3 or 4 but the 1 or more that wins make up for all the losses.

When I switched to dogs on April 28, with the parlays I have won 60.96 Units.

On the individual games from April 28(when I switched to dog bets) I have 39 W to 23 L= 62.9%. This returned +23.55 Units.

Now I do play these dogs individually,but don't post them because the purpose of this thread. 
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#25
Posted: 5/14/2012 2:18:55 PM
Blind when you do your 3 team round robin do you do 2's and 3's?
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