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[MLB Betting] Topic: Pitchers With Value to Start the Year |
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RJ89 |
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#1 Posted: 4/2/2012 1:18:44 AM Here are some pitchers who I feel will have value to start the year. Some underperformed last year, and others are unknowns to much of the public.
1. Francisco Liriano
Liriano has come out and said that he played poorly last year, because he was injured the whole year. He has had an amazing spring, and reportedly has had a training regimen similar to what it was in 2010 (where he posted a sub-3.00 xFIP over the whole season). When he is healthy and at the top of his game he is one of the top pitchers in the league, and I think that's the case at least for now.
2. Anibal Sanchez
His improved peripherals last year indicate he could take another step forward in 2012.
3. Doug Fister
He had an excellent finish last year (and a solid spring so far) which I think was legit. He will have value if people don't adjust their opinions on him.
4. Chris Capuano
Greatly improved his K/BB last year, the only thing holding him back was a high HR/FB%. I think the move to LA will help him keep balls in play. This could be a career year for him, if everything works out.
5. Juan Nicasio
Despite having a poor ERA last year before his injury, Nicasio had solid peripheral stats, had a solid spring, and has always had a solid K/BB in the minors. As someone mostly known for getting hit in the head, and not known for his skills, there should be some value on him early.
6. Henderson Alvarez
Another unknown, Alvarez has excellent control and has a solid GB%, so he keeps balls in the park. He should have success even against the toughest division in baseball. He is also backed up by a solid lineup.
7. Tommy Millone
He has two straight excellent years in the minors, has been solid this spring, and appears ready to pitch in the majors. He could be the Brandon McCarthy of 2012.
Anyone have anyone they want to add, or disagree with anyone on this list?  |
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Delpo |
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#2 Posted: 4/2/2012 1:41:19 AM The Alvarez selection is on point.
The kid is 21 and posted a ridiculous 40:8 K/BB ratio in his short stint last year.
There many people in the organization who feel he can be this teams best pitcher by seasons end.
His arrival basically got overshadowed because of Lawrie but Alvarez is a stud and should be very solid this year. |
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RJ89 |
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#3 Posted: 4/2/2012 1:55:03 AM |
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mainmanmainman2 |
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#4 Posted: 4/2/2012 2:13:44 AM
watched capuano before. hes pretty stellar. |
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Skyclad |
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#5 Posted: 4/2/2012 8:14:05 AM  |
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Spartacus10 |
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#6 Posted: 4/2/2012 3:37:12 PM
Doug Fister
Expect Fister to be extremely over valued to begin the season. He's playing for a much better offensive team, and everyone knows who he is after his red hot finish to last season.
Chris Capuano
I don't think Capuano will be under valued at all either. The guy finished the 2011 on a good note, including a great 2nd half to his season.
Henderson Alvarez
I agree 100%. I saw this kid pitch 4 times live at the end of alst year and he was absolutely lights out. This kid is the real deal. He throws everything below the knees, his fastball has great movement, and his control is phenomenal, especially for his age.
Here's a link to the thread we previously had going.
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101303498&page=1
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RJ89 |
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#7 Posted: 4/3/2012 12:43:25 AM Yeah, I didn't see that thread earlier.
With Doug Fister, I believe that much of the improvement he showed toward the end of the year was legitimate. But if people still view him as a near elite pitcher he will be valued correctly and you will be right about his value.
Chris Capuano is still a guy who has had never had a season ending ERA below 3.95. While there is a good chance everyone will remember Fister's great finish to last year, I think less people will take into account Capuano's finish. And I think based on his improvements he will be in for a career year.
For the record the guy I feel the most strongly about is Liriano, especially very early. |
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yankees2k6 |
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#8 Posted: 4/3/2012 2:26:51 PM |
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T_Rav1088 |
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#9 Posted: 4/3/2012 4:21:02 PM Some of Fister's sabermetrix numbers suggest that last season he was the beneficiary of a large deal of luck. His W/L from last season probably isn't an indication of how well he actually pitched. I like most of the list but fister was actually one I was considering laying off of/fading early. He's playing for one of the public favorites on a much better offense who made massive splashes in the off season. He's gonna be laying some steep numbers. Detroit's lack of defense is gonna be a factor too. I won't bore you with stats but the link below is an interesting read. Obviously fantasy value and betting value are different, but in the end we're both looking for any edge. He might do well, but I definitely don't see him being under the radar or some value steal.
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k12_30qtigers |
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RJ89 |
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#10 Posted: 4/4/2012 3:15:19 AM I actually sort of took sabermetrics into account. He greatly improved his K/BB the past two months and was one of the top pitchers in baseball. I think he improved as the season went on and ESPN completely misses that. I also disagree that his BABIP should be expected to go above 0.310, since he has always had low BABIP's. Taking that into account, I would project his ERA to be closer to 3.3 instead of 3.7. He is also a GB pitcher so his ERA could outperform his xFIP. Miggy at 3b will hurt, but I'm not really sure how much.
I guess if everyone thinks this highly of him, then you're right and there won't be much value on him.
Two more pitchers I think might be good values are Matt Harrison and Brandon Morrow. Harrison also improved his peripherals in the 2nd half. I read an article about Morrow changing his approach, and he beleives he could go deeper into games. Then again he was valued highly by oddsmakers last year, but I assume he left a terrible impression on many bettors, so it's tough to say. |
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PineappleXpress |
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#11 Posted: 4/4/2012 4:23:45 AM
BOL RJ89!  |
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