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Written By Joey Paz
[6U] In Action
[3U] Raphael Assuncao -320 vs. Vaughn Lee
This is one of those mismatches that we talk about on the smaller cards. Sometimes the UFC just needs to keep fringe contenders busy with fights and this fight fits that bill.
Raphael Assuncao is one of the hottest fighters in the UFC since dropping to bantamweight. Assuncao has won three straight fights and 4-of-5 with the only loss coming against Erik Koch in that time period. Assuncao has fought the best fighters in the world under 155 lbs having fought Koch, Diego Nunes and Urijah Faber. He is a well rounded fighter that does not lose to inferior guys and considering his proximity to a bantamweight title shot Assuncao has all the motivation he needs to take care of business this weekend.
Vaugn Lee is a journeyman fighter that has never beat anyone of note and seems to lose every time he steps up in class. Of his eight losses five of them have come by way of submission which does not bode well against Assuncao who has nine submission victories to his credit.
This fight will not last long as Assuncao will out strike Lee on the fight using a diverse attack of both kicks and punches. He will get Lee to the ground and submit Lee after hurting him on the feet in round 1.
[2U] Thiago Silva +165 vs. Rafael Cavalcante
If you bet on Thiago Silva’s last three fights you are 2-1 although the fighter’s official record in that same time frame is 0-1-2 due to two knockout wins being overturned to no decisions after Silva failed post fight drug tests.
Silva was a wrecking machine that was in line for a light heavyweight title fight prior to a knockout loss to Lyoto Machida in 2009. Since then out of the cage issues have been the biggest demon for Silva he has battled substance abuse issues and a couple of tough losses to top guys in Rashad Evans and Alexander Gistafsson.
Yet Silva is still relatively young at 30 years old and swears he has taken care of the personal issues. Silva has 11 knockouts in 14 wins against only three losses all of which came against top guys. Whe he is on he is a great striker who is savvy enough on the mat to avoid takedowns and get out of bad positions.
Silva was 13-0 with 10 ko’s to start his MMA career and has all the tools to be a star. If not for all the personal demons he has faced he would likely be the 2-1 favorite in this fight and not the other way around.
Rafael Cavalcante also had his last fight overturned for a failed drug test so this one may come down to who is the cleanest. Cavalcante has a better than average record of 11-3 with 10 of the 11 wins coming by way of KO. He has also fought above average competition as he has been in with the likes of Dan Henderson (who knocked Cavalcante out,) King Mo, and Mike Kyle. Yet his level of competition is nowhere near that of Silva’s and he is making his Octagon debut. You cannot downplay the effect that fighting in the UFC has as the crowds are bigger and the promotional stuff surrounding the fights is more than he has ever experienced in his career outside the UFC.
Look for this to immediately be a slugfest with Silva winning by KO and also passing the post fight drug test. This is a bad number and in reality Silva should be the favored fighter so take advantage of the generous price here.
[1U] William Macario +175 vs Leonardo Santos
This is the finals of the TUF Brasil and Macario is an undefeated red hot prospect that has yet to taste defeat at any level. Yet he is jumping into the deep end of the pool here against one of the most experienced jiu-jitsu fighters in the world today in Leonardo Santos.
Santos has multiple world championships in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and once famously submitted UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St Pierre with a flying arm bar at an Abu Dabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling event.
Yet as we have seen in the past and current with such Brazilian Jiu Jitsu legends as Vinny Maghales and others that it doesn’t guarantee success in the Octagon. This has been the case for Santos who has had mild success in MMA but has also been exposed in the past for his shortcomings in the striking game. Santos should not even be in this fight as he lost a decision to Santiago Ponzinbbio in the semi finals but was thrust into this fight when the later broke his hand and was unable to fight in the finals this weekend.
Macario has finished all six of his opponents in the first round and while the level of competiton has been low he is young explosive and may be able to exploit the more experienced Santos on the feet. Look for Macario to be more active and aggressive on the feet and catch Santos early and hurt him. Even if Macrio does not finish his opponent early in the fight he may win rounds with his aggressiveness. If he can avoid the big mistake that leads to a submission loss then there is no reason he does not win this fight.
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