Jon Jones cannot lose

Question

There is no reason in hell he should only be a 10-1 favorite. I can't believe it opened at -850.

Barring a freak knee accident while walking or DQ via elbows, there is actually value in Jon Jones at -950.

1. Chael can't KO him: I honestly don't think Chael can Serra him because Chael won't reach his head. Plus Chael has zero knock outs or TKOs in the UFC. Only KO came from a flying knee (???) in 2004.
2. Chael won't submit him: 1 flukey submission against Stann
3. Chael is susceptible to submissions

I think Jones takes this 999.5/1000 times. Fact that Jones is motivated and has incentive to win (people saying he's facing weak competition, HUGE nike deal w/ personal shoes + tshirt, there's not even a slight risk of a fix.

I think for some reason Chael has talked himself into being a smaller dog than Vitor. Chael is here for the paycheck-- Toney had a bigger chance against Couture.

nooob · Answer

There is no reason in hell he should only be a 10-1 favorite. I can't believe it opened at -850.

Barring a freak knee accident while walking or DQ via elbows, there is actually value in Jon Jones at -950.

1. Chael can't KO him: I honestly don't think Chael can Serra him because Chael won't reach his head. Plus Chael has zero knock outs or TKOs in the UFC. Only KO came from a flying knee (???) in 2004.
2. Chael won't submit him: 1 flukey submission against Stann
3. Chael is susceptible to submissions

I think Jones takes this 999.5/1000 times. Fact that Jones is motivated and has incentive to win (people saying he's facing weak competition, HUGE nike deal w/ personal shoes + tshirt, there's not even a slight risk of a fix.

I think for some reason Chael has talked himself into being a smaller dog than Vitor. Chael is here for the paycheck-- Toney had a bigger chance against Couture.

nooob · Answer

Considering Silva/Bonnar was -1100, GSP has been up to -800... and Silva was moving up in weight and likes to person around / GSP seems to always face at least somewhat legitimate competition in his weight class, we have the undisputed champion, arguably most dominant light heavyweight taking on a top middleweight

Personally I had a bit of a scare betting Bendo and I won't be betting heavy favorite 'point fighters' but Jones is just nasty. Truly nasty.

nooob · Answer

Considering similar lines: Pacers to win series after 1 game is -800, Thunder to win series is -3000, Heat are -30,000, Knicks at -750, Spurs at -1800...

-950 is crazy. there is no puncher's chance here. nevertheless juice is so heavy that i only have 'to win' $200. might up it to 300 by weekend.

Martyn · Answer

Jones ITD is -455I do think Jones will finish him, but I&#x27;d be weary of him him laying off the gas to just put a hurting on Sonnen for the full 5.

8intheGate · Answer

I mean, Chael is just going to bum rush him with a barrage... it could work lol.  I think there is value to adding Jones at the end of parlays but wudn&#x27;t bet it str8 don&#x27;t feel like laying that just to win 200-300.  With that being said... his sub over Stann wasn&#x27;t fluke he set up the arm triangle... Chael has been working with Vinny for a while now.

nooob · Answer

I guess in terms of value...compared to everything else that is -1000, this seems the safest. Not to mention Nike released three t-shirts and a signature shoe for Bones...and Nike desperately needs a sure thing after Pacquiao and JDS (the latter to a far less extent).

Chael could bum rush him with a barrage of what? Take downs? Chael has been working with Vinny regarding submission defense though, right?

I guess I am just very high on this because it isn't everyday you get an undisputed champion, a huge light heavyweight, against an undersized light heavyweight. I like Chael a lot but he's more marketing than game and I have a feeling he just retires after this one-- where do you go after losing to GOAT and future GOAT on b2b fights? Fox broadcasting.

There's a risk in everything... except this fight. And I'm not scared of "jinx" or anything like that-- it's gambling, it is what it is.

sharpstick · Answer

I&#x27;m sold.  Nike needing the surge makes this a lock!!!!!

nooob · Answer

Say what you want but the Thunder were -700 against the Rockets and it was a three point game. This line should be -2500 or greater. Daniel Day Lewis lines

nooob · Answer

I&#x27;ve gone all in, not sure how to insert pics but can if necessary, to win $650 (mostly profit though)

gsprush · Answer

This should be -9000. Nadal first round of french open type garbage

nooob · Answer

Only risk is DQ called by the ref. I think Bones could try to Anderson Silva Chael but end up kneeing him in the head. Still, Chael is in the moneymaking business and he won't act whatsoever. He's a great loser which is why he gets paid the big bucks for being absolutely gatekeeper (for MW) not LHW

nooob · Answer

1425&#xD;&#xA;  150

nooob · Answer

[24302] J JONES -950       1425       150&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -950       475         50&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -950       475         50&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -950       238         25&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -950       475         50&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -950       950         100&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -950       618         65&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -950       950         100&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -1000    1000       100&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -1000    1000       100&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -1010    1010       100&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[24302] J JONES -1010    505         50

stats1 · Answer

U think they should just cancel the fight ?  Since chael has no chance

sharpstick · Answer

Honestly, it&#x27;ll obviously be a shocker if Chael wins.  But I can&#x27;t stop laughing at the "Nike needs a surge" comment when giving reasons as why Jones will win.

nooob · Answer

Bones Knows shirts have been out for some time. Why didn't they release them right before the Vitor fight? Because there wasn't a big enough following in America to maximize their profits.

After TUF + Chael is a walking advertisement + the beatdown Jones is going to lay, Nike releases an entire line of stuff the week of the fight. It is what Nike does. They just released 320 dollar Lebron James championship shoes and (slightly lower priced) Kevin Durant shoes.

Maybe there shouldn't be a fight. People are saying this is the most dangerous because he doesn't care, etc. but I think Jones is going to dominate and I don't want to regret not betting more (though this is my entire roll, except for the the 500 i won tonight lol)

Jon Jones cannot lose

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