Messages

Nik Lentz   vs.   Eiji Mitsuoka  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Here we go again, if this card is half as good as this past Saturday’s we’re in for a treat.  Eiji Mitsuoka wrestled in high school and in college in Japan. Mitsuoka’s take-downs, guard passing and submissions are things of beauty, out of his 18 wins 11 are submissions with 3 knockouts and 4 decisions.  He started out in MMA as pure wrestled but over the years in the gym (now 36) Mitsuoka has developed a serviceable pair of hands with decent knockout power, that being said he knows his striking is primarily a means to set up his lighting fast shots to get the fight to the ground.

Lentz fights out of ATT, wrestled at the NCAA Division 1 level at the University of Minnesota and is currently a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a balanced win ratio with 9 submissions, 6 knockouts and 6 decision wins. Like Mitsuoka, Lentz prefers to get the fight to the ground. I would give the edge in wrestling to Lentz (slight), technique and power on the feet to Mitsuoka (slight) and the submission advantage to Mitsuoka (heavy). Mitsuoka may struggle with the D1 wrestling of Lentz but is more than capable of plating the ATT product on his backside, the same can be said for Lentz however as he has shown a knack for finding a way to drag the fight to the floor.

I’ve gone back and forth on this fight but I’m going to go with Mitsuoka via submission in the second.

Dustin Pague   vs.   Chico Camus  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Pague (5’9) 74.5” reach

Pague owns his own gym and sometimes trains at the Tapout rand with Donald Ceronne. He is a decent kick boxer with a legit ground game; however he lacks the offensive wrestling to force a ground fight. In his second last fight Jared Papazanian hung around in the clinch way too long throwing body shots, Pague bided his time until he could get good head control with a single collar tie then hit a very nice outside trip which floored Papazanian, one more slight mistake on the ground cost Jared the rear naked choke loss to Pague. In his last fight Pague would lose a split decision to Ken Stone, the stand-up was somewhat even but Pague was not able to come out on top on the majority of the ground scrambles.  Pague has not done much to impress me in UFC career as I believe the win over Jared was due to two small mistakes Papazian made rather than Pague enforcing his skills.

Camus (5’6)

Camus is a Roufusport product, training alongside fighters like Anthony Pettis and Ben Askren. He is 11 – 3 – 0 overall with a split decision loss to 5 – 1 Robert Menigoz, UD loss to WEC vet Jameel Massouh and a KO/TKO loss in his second pro fight back in 2009. Camus is best friends with Anthony Pettis who helped get Chico off the streets and into Duke Roufus’ gym; he has since turned his life around as he is one of the more promising fighters at Roufusport. I’ve searched a bit for some background info on this dude but I didn’t find much. From his footage he looks like a wrestle-boxer, his hands are fast and he seems to have decent power, I didn’t see the best foot work and head movement from him and he would move back in a straight line sometimes when being pressured but the kid is only 26 so he has tons of time to improve his stand up. He seems to have good fight IQ, dropping for well-timed double legs either to score points or when he feels that he is at a disadvantage on the feet. In a recent fight he fought a 6’1 135lb fighter; Camus negated the reach advantage by continually flooring his opponent.

I don’t like to bet on fighters making their UFC debuts so I might stay away, that being said I like Camus in this fight. I think this is a bad matchup for Pague, where Pague’s foot work is lumbering and his punches come slow, Camus moves well and his hands will be much faster than Pagues. Look for Camus to get off first, circle away whenever Pague tries to clinch up for the take-down and even hit a few of his own well timed doubles. Camus by third round TKO.

Ken Stone   vs.   Erik Perez  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Stone (5’8) 71” reach

A wrestler at Bridgewater State University (Div 3) from 2001 – 2004, stone began training in MMA in 2006 and turned pro the following year. He won his first 8 bouts on the regional circuit but dropped a 5 round split decision to Jason McLean (stone claimed he sustained a broken foot in the second). Stone lost his WEC debut by vicious KO, a slam by Eddie Wineland and his follow up fight to Scott Jorgensen by KO in round 1. Those are Stone’s only loses as he is 11 - 3 over all with 6 submissions and 4 knockouts. Stone is well rounded and does everything well but nothing great. His take-downs, striking and fight IQ are all average, his top control and ground and pound are particularly effective but even with a background in wrestling his “MMA wrestling” does not seem up to par, his submission offense and defense are average, I guess what I’m saying is he is an average fighter =)

Erik Perez (5’8) 68” reach

Is a 27 year old fighter training out of Jackson’s MMA.  He is 11 – 5 – 0 overall and made his UFC debut in his last fight with a controversial first round submission of John Albert. Albert had Perez’s back on the ground along the fence, Perez stood up and Albert slid off and ended up on the bottom, right away Albert went for a triangle that was very tight, Perez was able to land shots while in the triangle that made Albert’s eye slew up, Albert would transition into an arm bar on Perez but Perez slipped out and got Albert in a tight arm bar off his own, referee Kim Winslow called a stop to the fight even though Albert had not tapped or verbally submitted, terrible reffing.  From what I’ve seen of Perez he is pretty raw, decent sized for the weight class, little to no head movement when striking. He throws pretty good combos and has a few nice kicks in his arsenal, including a nice head kick and a low leg kick. Perez occasionally goes for his own take-downs but seems to prefer to stand and bang, his take-down defense seems below average, Albert was able to get him to the ground in Perez’s last fight and even though he won his second last fight in England against Journeyman Paul McVeigh, Perez was taken down multiple times throughout the 3 round UD win (pretty easily too). Perez has a very sneaky technique that he used several times against Paul McVeigh – Perez gets the clinch along the fence and sets up for a power double, he gets close to clasping his hands then very quickly switches to a single leg, instead of pulling in, up and running the pipe he actually rolls under his man with the single to drag his opponent to the floor, it’s a pretty neat single leg against the fence, I’ve watched tons of fights and never seen anything quite like it, I imagine it’s something he picked up training at Jackson MMA. If you want to see check out the single leg technique check out the Paul McVeigh fight on youtube from BAMMA 8.

Prediction – I honestly have no idea what to expect from this fight. I’ll go with Ken Stone via split decision as I think he will have the edge in wrestling and submissions while the stand-up should be somewhat even.

*Thumbs Up

hands down best info and insight on Covers forum, patiently waiting for your Sheilds/Herman ; Henderson/Edgar thoughts.

Dennis Bermudez   vs.   Tommy Hayden  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Hayden (5’9) 72” reach | 8 – 1 – 0

Hayden is a 26 year old BJJ blue belt fighting out of Cincinnati, Ohio. Hayden will be making his featherweight debut after being submitted by Fabricio Camoes in what was Hayden’s first fight in the UFC. Hayden will be a larger featherweight, as his stats above show. He showed some good, straight hard punches in the Camoes fight which had Fabricio on his heels early on. Hayden even took the 3^rd degree black belt down a few times and played in his guard, Fabricio immediately attacked and eventually won by choke but it was a gutsy performance from Hayden.  Apparently Hayden comes from a wrestling background but there is not much information out there on the Jorge Gurgel pupil.

Bermudez (5’6) 8 – 3

Bermudez is a hardnosed wrestler fighting out of Long Island MMA. Bermudez held a high school wrestling record of 112 – 23 and went on to wrestle at the University of Pennsylvania in 2007 where he was ranked 22^nd in the nation at DIV 1 level. Bermudez would make the switch to Akron, Ohio where he would become a college free-style all-American.  Bermudez is a wrestler first and foremost but has a decent set of hands to complement his aggressive wrestling style. Bermudez either sets his shots up with strikes or bullies his opponent into the cage where he can grab a single or a double against the fence.  Dennis was a finalist on TUF 14 but lost to Diego Brandao after dropping Brandao with a huge punch and following him to the floor; it was a small mistake that probably cost Bermudez the TUF 15 title. 

Prediction - Past level of competition favors Bermudez as he has a win over former UFC vet Shannon Gugerty, current UFC fighter Pablo Garza, not to mention fighting through a very competitive season of TUF to make it to the finals. Hayden’s biggest win is TUF 14’s Dustin Neace, who is a journey man at best. I expect Hayden to have a slight advantage on the feet as he seems to have a good grasp of foot work and angles and throws straight hard punches down the pipe to use his reach advantage to its full potential. That being said Bermudez can take a shot, his striking is serviceable, he has big power and his wrestling credentials are impeccable. Unless Tommy catches Bermudez on the feet I see Bermudez via UD decision.

Max Holloway   vs.   Justin Lawrence  
Main Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Holloway (5’11) 70” reach

Is a Hawaiian fighting out of Waianae, Hawaii. He has an over record of 5 – 1 with 4 decisions and 1 knockout. He is currently the youngest fighter on the UFC roster at 20 years of age. Holloway clocked in as the #7 featherweight prospect in the Bloody Elbow 2012 World Scouting Report. He has a wide array of kicks, elbows, punches, and flying knees when standing but is largely untested on the ground. Holloway also has excellent head movement, timing and he goes to the body very well, he drained Pat Schillings gas tank by hitting him with 3 or 4 beautiful liver shots.  In his UFC debut (which he took on short notice) Holloway was lighting Dustin Poiere up on the feet, Poiere reverted to his wrestling and got the choke but Holloway looked good early on.  In his last fight Holloway used his length to keep Pat Schilling away and good take-down defense along the fence to keep the fight in his wheel house, Holloway eventually won by UD and it was one of the most one sided decisions I’ve seen in a while as Pat got beat up pretty bad, however it was a bit concerning that Holloway couldn’t finish Schilling off.

Lawrence (5’8) 69” reach

Lawrence picked up Kickboxing at his step fathers gym in St. Louis. Lawrence wrestled in high school and by nineteen had over 150 amateur kickboxing wins, was a six time nation kickboxing champion and a two time St. Louis Golden Gloves champ. He now trains at the renowned Black House with world class trainers and sparring partners. Lawrence’s  footwork, angles, timing, kicks and hands are among the very best at 155 and 145, he also has a sound wrestling base to fall back on as he showed a few times while fighting to the finals on TUF 15. The one knock on him watching him on TUF 15 was his cardio, he gassed pretty hard in the finals and when it went to the third round was taken down, mounted and pounded out by the very tough wrestler Mike Chiesa.

Prediction – The line is pretty much dead even on these two which I agree with. If Holloway had more reach on Lawrence I might re-think my pick but Lawrence should be able to match Holloway standing while having the option to switch to a well-timed double leg as I’ve seen him do before. I think Justin’s a bit more well-rounded at this point in their respective careers.  I like Lawrence by KO last in the secod round. I’m very high on Holloway however, some advancements in wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu the kid could be a legit force, this fight might be a little too much too soon however. Can’t wait to find out!