UFC 150: Henderson vs. Edgar 2 Predictions

Nik Lentz   vs.   Eiji Mitsuoka  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Here we go again, if this card is half as good as this past Saturday’s we’re in for a treat.  Eiji Mitsuoka wrestled in high school and in college in Japan. Mitsuoka’s take-downs, guard passing and submissions are things of beauty, out of his 18 wins 11 are submissions with 3 knockouts and 4 decisions.  He started out in MMA as pure wrestled but over the years in the gym (now 36) Mitsuoka has developed a serviceable pair of hands with decent knockout power, that being said he knows his striking is primarily a means to set up his lighting fast shots to get the fight to the ground.

Lentz fights out of ATT, wrestled at the NCAA Division 1 level at the University of Minnesota and is currently a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a balanced win ratio with 9 submissions, 6 knockouts and 6 decision wins. Like Mitsuoka, Lentz prefers to get the fight to the ground. I would give the edge in wrestling to Lentz (slight), technique and power on the feet to Mitsuoka (slight) and the submission advantage to Mitsuoka (heavy). Mitsuoka may struggle with the D1 wrestling of Lentz but is more than capable of plating the ATT product on his backside, the same can be said for Lentz however as he has shown a knack for finding a way to drag the fight to the floor.

I’ve gone back and forth on this fight but I’m going to go with Mitsuoka via submission in the second.

Dustin Pague   vs.   Chico Camus  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Pague (5’9) 74.5” reach

Pague owns his own gym and sometimes trains at the Tapout rand with Donald Ceronne. He is a decent kick boxer with a legit ground game; however he lacks the offensive wrestling to force a ground fight. In his second last fight Jared Papazanian hung around in the clinch way too long throwing body shots, Pague bided his time until he could get good head control with a single collar tie then hit a very nice outside trip which floored Papazanian, one more slight mistake on the ground cost Jared the rear naked choke loss to Pague. In his last fight Pague would lose a split decision to Ken Stone, the stand-up was somewhat even but Pague was not able to come out on top on the majority of the ground scrambles.  Pague has not done much to impress me in UFC career as I believe the win over Jared was due to two small mistakes Papazian made rather than Pague enforcing his skills.

Camus (5’6)

Camus is a Roufusport product, training alongside fighters like Anthony Pettis and Ben Askren. He is 11 – 3 – 0 overall with a split decision loss to 5 – 1 Robert Menigoz, UD loss to WEC vet Jameel Massouh and a KO/TKO loss in his second pro fight back in 2009. Camus is best friends with Anthony Pettis who helped get Chico off the streets and into Duke Roufus’ gym; he has since turned his life around as he is one of the more promising fighters at Roufusport. I’ve searched a bit for some background info on this dude but I didn’t find much. From his footage he looks like a wrestle-boxer, his hands are fast and he seems to have decent power, I didn’t see the best foot work and head movement from him and he would move back in a straight line sometimes when being pressured but the kid is only 26 so he has tons of time to improve his stand up. He seems to have good fight IQ, dropping for well-timed double legs either to score points or when he feels that he is at a disadvantage on the feet. In a recent fight he fought a 6’1 135lb fighter; Camus negated the reach advantage by continually flooring his opponent.

I don’t like to bet on fighters making their UFC debuts so I might stay away, that being said I like Camus in this fight. I think this is a bad matchup for Pague, where Pague’s foot work is lumbering and his punches come slow, Camus moves well and his hands will be much faster than Pagues. Look for Camus to get off first, circle away whenever Pague tries to clinch up for the take-down and even hit a few of his own well timed doubles. Camus by third round TKO.

Ken Stone   vs.   Erik Perez  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Stone (5’8) 71” reach

A wrestler at Bridgewater State University (Div 3) from 2001 – 2004, stone began training in MMA in 2006 and turned pro the following year. He won his first 8 bouts on the regional circuit but dropped a 5 round split decision to Jason McLean (stone claimed he sustained a broken foot in the second). Stone lost his WEC debut by vicious KO, a slam by Eddie Wineland and his follow up fight to Scott Jorgensen by KO in round 1. Those are Stone’s only loses as he is 11 - 3 over all with 6 submissions and 4 knockouts. Stone is well rounded and does everything well but nothing great. His take-downs, striking and fight IQ are all average, his top control and ground and pound are particularly effective but even with a background in wrestling his “MMA wrestling” does not seem up to par, his submission offense and defense are average, I guess what I’m saying is he is an average fighter =)

Erik Perez (5’8) 68” reach

Is a 27 year old fighter training out of Jackson’s MMA.  He is 11 – 5 – 0 overall and made his UFC debut in his last fight with a controversial first round submission of John Albert. Albert had Perez’s back on the ground along the fence, Perez stood up and Albert slid off and ended up on the bottom, right away Albert went for a triangle that was very tight, Perez was able to land shots while in the triangle that made Albert’s eye slew up, Albert would transition into an arm bar on Perez but Perez slipped out and got Albert in a tight arm bar off his own, referee Kim Winslow called a stop to the fight even though Albert had not tapped or verbally submitted, terrible reffing.  From what I’ve seen of Perez he is pretty raw, decent sized for the weight class, little to no head movement when striking. He throws pretty good combos and has a few nice kicks in his arsenal, including a nice head kick and a low leg kick. Perez occasionally goes for his own take-downs but seems to prefer to stand and bang, his take-down defense seems below average, Albert was able to get him to the ground in Perez’s last fight and even though he won his second last fight in England against Journeyman Paul McVeigh, Perez was taken down multiple times throughout the 3 round UD win (pretty easily too). Perez has a very sneaky technique that he used several times against Paul McVeigh – Perez gets the clinch along the fence and sets up for a power double, he gets close to clasping his hands then very quickly switches to a single leg, instead of pulling in, up and running the pipe he actually rolls under his man with the single to drag his opponent to the floor, it’s a pretty neat single leg against the fence, I’ve watched tons of fights and never seen anything quite like it, I imagine it’s something he picked up training at Jackson MMA. If you want to see check out the single leg technique check out the Paul McVeigh fight on youtube from BAMMA 8.

Prediction – I honestly have no idea what to expect from this fight. I’ll go with Ken Stone via split decision as I think he will have the edge in wrestling and submissions while the stand-up should be somewhat even.

Jared Hamman   vs.   Michael Kuiper  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

5 fight UFC Vet Jared “The Messenger” Hamman meats UFC sophomore Michael “Judo” Kuiper.  Kuiper is 23, holds a black belt in Judo, blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has a very good pair of hands that had Natal worried enough to take Kuiper down a million times. Although billed as only a blue belt Kuiper more than held his own on the ground against a top level black belt in Rafeal Natal in his UFC debut. Natal almost immediately shot in for a take-down at the start of round 1 and almost had Kuiper mounted which would spell doom for a lot of other middleweights, Kuiper fought out got back to his feet and was taken down again, Kuiper worked for a kimura then again regained his footing. Natal once again immediately shot in and got the power take-down but Kuiper was able to sweep Natal and get in top position, Natal attacked with a triangle and arm bar right away but Kuiper defended.

Hamman is 6’3 with a gangly 75” reach; he is a pretty big middleweight. He trains out of Vladimir Matyushenko VMAT team. Joe Rogan has stated Hamman as having a “rubber chin” as he is known for taking a ton of punishment while somehow keeping the lights on. In his last fight Hamman showed his resiliency as he lost the first round to CB Dollaway, Hamman was taken down multiple times and had his back taken twice, at the very end of the first CB dropped Hamman but Hamman survived to the second. In the second Hamman stuffed a few take-downs then took CB down and won the fight via tko with elbows. Contrary to the “rubber chin” comment above Hamman has been knocked out twice in 3 UFC loses, once to the massive Alexander Gustafsson at light heavyweight back in 2009 and Costa Phillippou in his last fight. To be fair Costa was a pro boxer before switching over to MMA and the dude hits like a frickin’ MACK truck.

I don’t think Hamman can match the timing or power take-downs that Natal used to stifle Kuiper in what was Kuipers first fight in the UFC. Kuiper seemed to wear out as the fight drug on but that could be due to an adrenaline dump from Octagon Jitters, oh and it doesn’t help when Natal wants to lay on you a bunch either. I like Kuiper to keep this fight standing via his black belt level Judo where he should have a significant advantage. Hamman hits hard and is a crafty veteran but I like Kuiper via TKO in the third.

*Thumbs Up

hands down best info and insight on Covers forum, patiently waiting for your Sheilds/Herman ; Henderson/Edgar thoughts.

Jake Shields   vs.   Ed Herman  
Main Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Herman

Is a large middleweight fighting out of Team Quest. He stands 6’2 with a 75” reach.  It’s hard to find faults in Herman’s game. His only weaknesses are his gas tank and defensive wrestling (which he has shored up training at team quest). Herman’s fight IQ, submissions and top control are all top notch, his striking is above average and he holds some serious power in his hands.  Almost all of his recent loses are to elite competition in Kauo Misaki in Pancrase, Joe Doerksen (choke), Kendall Grove (UD), Jason MacDonald (choke), Demian Maia (choke), Alan Belcher (split decision).  Herman hold notable victories over D1 wrestler Clifford Starks, Kyle Noke (leglock), Tim Credeu (KO), David Loiseau (UD), Dave Menne (TKO) Nick Tompson and Glover Teixeira (the light heavyweight that just singed with the UFC that shogun turned down to fight).  Herman is coming into this fight with some momentum as he is 3 – 0 in his last three fights.

Shields

Shields has had a less than stellar run so far in the UFC that has made people forget why there was so much hype surrounding him  when he made the cross-over from Strikeforce. Shields was fresh off a dominating  5 round performance which saw him survive a first round H-Bomb from Dan Henderson (one of the few people to take one and not be KO’d or lose the fight) to go on and dominate the rest of the fight with take-downs and top control. Shields began wrestling at age nine and has since competed in over 600 folk, freestyle and submission wrestling matches and is a two time All American wrestler at Cuesta College (DIV 2). He holds a black belt in BJJ under Cesar Gracie and describes is style as “American Jii-jitsu” His first fight in the UFC was against Martin Kapmann, Shields gassed hard in the fight even though he won a split decision; apparently injuries forced him to cut something like 17 pounds in one day which could be true as Shield’s usually has a decent gas tank and is not known for making excuses (I scored the fight for Kapmann).  Even though Shields is coming off a win, this is a must win for him, he is moving back up in weight after getting dominated by GSP, trucked by Jake Ellenberger in the first round and slipping past Akiyama in his last fight.  Even though Shields has struggled a little with the cross-over his is still one of the best welterweights and yes even middleweights in the world. Let’s take a quick look at Shields past level of competition, it’s pretty crazy to say the least. Current UFC fighter Milton Vieira back in 2003 (W), Hayato Sakurai (W – UD) Toby Imada (W – UD), Dave Menne (W-UD),  Yushin Okami (W-UD), Carlos Condit (W-UD), Mike Pyle (W-CHOKE), Paul Daley (W-SUB), Robbie Lawler (W-SUB), Dan Henderson, Martin Kappmann, GSP, Jake Ellenberger and Akiyama.

Prediction – Like the Dan Henderson and Kapmann fights Shields fight IQ will kick in and he will realize that his best chance of winning is on the mat; hopefully it won’t take an H-Bomb like shot to wake him up this time. I think Jake takes this but does not finish Herman so I like Shields via split decision.

one thing to consider is that herman is fighting out of colorado at 5000 elevation and will be full acclimated to the pepsi center while shields will be flying in from san francisco.

san francisco, gay photos, vegan diet...im not putting too much weight into jakes past victories especially moving back up in weight.

i like herman here.

Dennis Bermudez   vs.   Tommy Hayden  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Hayden (5’9) 72” reach | 8 – 1 – 0

Hayden is a 26 year old BJJ blue belt fighting out of Cincinnati, Ohio. Hayden will be making his featherweight debut after being submitted by Fabricio Camoes in what was Hayden’s first fight in the UFC. Hayden will be a larger featherweight, as his stats above show. He showed some good, straight hard punches in the Camoes fight which had Fabricio on his heels early on. Hayden even took the 3^rd degree black belt down a few times and played in his guard, Fabricio immediately attacked and eventually won by choke but it was a gutsy performance from Hayden.  Apparently Hayden comes from a wrestling background but there is not much information out there on the Jorge Gurgel pupil.

Bermudez (5’6) 8 – 3

Bermudez is a hardnosed wrestler fighting out of Long Island MMA. Bermudez held a high school wrestling record of 112 – 23 and went on to wrestle at the University of Pennsylvania in 2007 where he was ranked 22^nd in the nation at DIV 1 level. Bermudez would make the switch to Akron, Ohio where he would become a college free-style all-American.  Bermudez is a wrestler first and foremost but has a decent set of hands to complement his aggressive wrestling style. Bermudez either sets his shots up with strikes or bullies his opponent into the cage where he can grab a single or a double against the fence.  Dennis was a finalist on TUF 14 but lost to Diego Brandao after dropping Brandao with a huge punch and following him to the floor; it was a small mistake that probably cost Bermudez the TUF 15 title. 

Prediction - Past level of competition favors Bermudez as he has a win over former UFC vet Shannon Gugerty, current UFC fighter Pablo Garza, not to mention fighting through a very competitive season of TUF to make it to the finals. Hayden’s biggest win is TUF 14’s Dustin Neace, who is a journey man at best. I expect Hayden to have a slight advantage on the feet as he seems to have a good grasp of foot work and angles and throws straight hard punches down the pipe to use his reach advantage to its full potential. That being said Bermudez can take a shot, his striking is serviceable, he has big power and his wrestling credentials are impeccable. Unless Tommy catches Bermudez on the feet I see Bermudez via UD decision.

Yushin Okami   vs.   Buddy Roberts  
Main Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Perennial middleweight contender Yushin Okami tries to rebound from two straight loses against Greg Jackson product Buddy Roberts. Both men are 6’2 with Roberts having a slight reach advantage with 74” to Okami’s 72”. Roberts played football in University and has adapted his raw athleticism working with Greg Jackson to fit the fight game perfectly. He has sound boxing fundamentals; his kicking technique is below average but his length, leverage and power when throwing more than make up for any technical faults. He displayed good take-down defense and solid fight IQ sticking to his game plan to defeat the debuting Caio Magalhaes. Okami used to be more of a two dimensional threat in the cage, his striking was a way of setting up take-downs, usually along the fence via clinch. Now a days Okami is a legitimate triple threat in the cage, his boxing has tightened up, he uses his reach well and has an arsenal of elbows, knees, trips and throws from the clinch. His top control is smothering and his submission game is above average. If there are any knocks on Okami at all it would be his fight IQ and killer instinct, sometimes he can seem content to chip away and win via points or smother his opponent with less than exciting ground work, that being said you cannot argue with his results as he is 10 – 4 in the UFC with his only defeats coming to Tim Boetsch ( I mentioned the fight IQ for Okami due to this fight, he stood around in the pocket and ate like 10 uppercuts from Boetsch without moving an inch), Anderson Silva, 185 top dog Chael Sonnen and a prime Rich Franklin back in 2009.

Prediction – Roberts will have to have to fight almost a perfect fight to beat Okami. Roberts foot work, timing, agility, take-down defense and striking defense will all have to be top notch as Okami needs this win to not go 0 – 3 in his last three fights. Look for Okami to mix it up on the feet while looking for openings to push Roberts up against the fence and secure a trip or take-down via his improved wrestling (thanks to chael sonnen and team quest) or his black belt level Judo. I don’t agree with the betting lines but this is Okami’s fight to loose. Okami via UD.

Max Holloway   vs.   Justin Lawrence  
Main Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Holloway (5’11) 70” reach

Is a Hawaiian fighting out of Waianae, Hawaii. He has an over record of 5 – 1 with 4 decisions and 1 knockout. He is currently the youngest fighter on the UFC roster at 20 years of age. Holloway clocked in as the #7 featherweight prospect in the Bloody Elbow 2012 World Scouting Report. He has a wide array of kicks, elbows, punches, and flying knees when standing but is largely untested on the ground. Holloway also has excellent head movement, timing and he goes to the body very well, he drained Pat Schillings gas tank by hitting him with 3 or 4 beautiful liver shots.  In his UFC debut (which he took on short notice) Holloway was lighting Dustin Poiere up on the feet, Poiere reverted to his wrestling and got the choke but Holloway looked good early on.  In his last fight Holloway used his length to keep Pat Schilling away and good take-down defense along the fence to keep the fight in his wheel house, Holloway eventually won by UD and it was one of the most one sided decisions I’ve seen in a while as Pat got beat up pretty bad, however it was a bit concerning that Holloway couldn’t finish Schilling off.

Lawrence (5’8) 69” reach

Lawrence picked up Kickboxing at his step fathers gym in St. Louis. Lawrence wrestled in high school and by nineteen had over 150 amateur kickboxing wins, was a six time nation kickboxing champion and a two time St. Louis Golden Gloves champ. He now trains at the renowned Black House with world class trainers and sparring partners. Lawrence’s  footwork, angles, timing, kicks and hands are among the very best at 155 and 145, he also has a sound wrestling base to fall back on as he showed a few times while fighting to the finals on TUF 15. The one knock on him watching him on TUF 15 was his cardio, he gassed pretty hard in the finals and when it went to the third round was taken down, mounted and pounded out by the very tough wrestler Mike Chiesa.

Prediction – The line is pretty much dead even on these two which I agree with. If Holloway had more reach on Lawrence I might re-think my pick but Lawrence should be able to match Holloway standing while having the option to switch to a well-timed double leg as I’ve seen him do before. I think Justin’s a bit more well-rounded at this point in their respective careers.  I like Lawrence by KO last in the secod round. I’m very high on Holloway however, some advancements in wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu the kid could be a legit force, this fight might be a little too much too soon however. Can’t wait to find out!