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[Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 149 |
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sawman |
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#1 Posted: 7/19/2012 2:19:42 PM This is a real hard fight to cap. A bunch of unknowns and a bunch of late replacements. I have considered throwing out small bets on almost all dogs, because there could be a lot of "upsets". I have been on a great roll lately, more than doubling my bank roll in the past 4 fights. If I am smart, I will tread lightly.
a few thoughts:
Faber/Barao - will Barao win? Probably. Can Faber win? Definitely
Lombard/Boetch - Lombard is the easy choice. Boetch was dominated last fight, but snuck out a win (I got a lucky win too). But what Boetch really showed was his desire to win and get dirty to do it. If he stands and trades it could be a short fight. But If he fights smart, and drags the fight deep, I think he can finish Boetch
Ebersole/Head - Ebersole has been awesome and I can't see him losing to Head. There are so few fights on this card that I feel confident in, I can't even find a good parlay partner. I have had horrible luck with single bets at -300 and worse, but I am considering it here
Jordan/Kongo - I like Kongo here. His stand up should be better IMO. I missed the +105, but I may wait to see if it hits a + # again
Delorme/Rivera - I like Delorme as a dog. He weathered the storm last fight and got a great finsh
Riddle/clements - i love riddle but he has yet to live up to his promise. he says he has changed his mindset, but in the past he has seemed happy to loose a barnburner, rather than trying to win. he is a big guy, and has struggled with past cuts. That might be an issue again. Clements at a + # is not a bad call
Ring/McGee - Court has accomplished a lot for not having a ton of skill IMO. I have been very impressed with Ring in the past. I think he has more skill and is more well rounded
Jimmo/Persoh - Jimmo is from my local circuit, but have never seen him fight live. I understand he is a counter puncher, but not a hard puncher. I think Perosh is slick enough to get the finish and W
Pineda/Carvalho - Lots on Pineda here, but I don't understand why he's -250. Carvahlo at +200 is a good play IMO
nothing to add on last 2 fights
2 bets in the books:
Faber +160 $50 wins $80
Ring -120 $50 wins $42 |
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Bighurt |
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#2 Posted: 7/19/2012 5:25:12 PM
i think boetch has a much better tank and more toughness.....also call it nerves or whatever but dont forget most guys making their ufc debuts from other organizations (not wec) arent all that spectacular....lombard could hurt boetch early and finish him but if it goes into the deeper waters i like his heart and i definately think the odds are a bit higher than they should be for this particular fight |
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sawman |
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#3 Posted: 7/19/2012 5:37:11 PM |
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Bighurt |
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#4 Posted: 7/19/2012 5:38:15 PM  |
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ctm1985 |
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#5 Posted: 7/20/2012 1:57:39 AM
Good luck on your card  !
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sawman |
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#6 Posted: 7/20/2012 9:37:16 AM |
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sawman |
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#7 Posted: 7/20/2012 9:37:53 AM |
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#8 Posted: 7/20/2012 6:30:26 PM daley/baker/wiuff/ebersole $40 wins $86 |
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#9 Posted: 7/20/2012 6:46:51 PM |
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#10 Posted: 7/20/2012 7:39:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:
Tim Silvia signs with Strikeforce to fight Cormier. Opening odds might top Jones/Hendo
-400 or so for Cormier is my guess |
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CTownLetdown |
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#11 Posted: 7/20/2012 7:48:54 PM |
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#12 Posted: 7/20/2012 7:48:55 PM |
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#13 Posted: 7/20/2012 9:11:25 PM |
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#14 Posted: 7/21/2012 12:35:43 PM
Two more plays
Kongo -105 $50 wins $48
Ebersole/riddle $100 wins $106... I might add more to this later. I like it |
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#15 Posted: 7/21/2012 1:15:13 PM
No plays for me tonight. |
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#16 Posted: 7/21/2012 1:20:06 PM |
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#17 Posted: 7/21/2012 4:16:41 PM |
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sawman |
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#18 Posted: 7/21/2012 5:38:11 PM
Faber/ebersole/Lombard. $20 wins $60 |
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#19 Posted: 7/21/2012 7:35:07 PM ebersole/lombard/riddle/DBacks $50 wins $145
I buckled under the Lombard pressure. I think i was the only one who gave him a chance |
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#20 Posted: 7/21/2012 7:48:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by CTownLetdown:
-600 at least
Yeah you're probably right! |
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bense197969 |
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#21 Posted: 7/21/2012 8:04:49 PM
Good luck tonight man!!!!! |
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#22 Posted: 7/21/2012 8:08:40 PM
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#23 Posted: 7/21/2012 9:15:10 PM
Riddle -160. $100 wins $63 (I think) |
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#24 Posted: 7/21/2012 9:33:27 PM
GL on the rest, I hope Riddle doesn't fight like an idiot
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#25 Posted: 7/21/2012 9:35:06 PM |
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