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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: DON JUAN makes his legendary SUPERBOWL PICK, record 11-1
don juan
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#1
Posted: 1/31/2013 7:33:38 PM

Hi All,

 

For 12 years, since 2001. I have posted my super bowl selection here. My record, against the spread is 11-1

 

I don’t get into statistics too much, because of turnovers. I take more of an overview, looking for a hot hand and experience. Let me try to paint a picture for you.

 

I’m no spring chicken. I have watched every super bowl since 1967, from Bart Starr to Tom Brady. Let me tell you, I have never seen a quarterback like Colin Kaepernick in any super bowl.

 

Some quarterbacks were great passers but could not run. Some could run but could not pass. And some, like Billy Kilmer couldn’t do either.

The rules were different, back then they relied on defense and running game. (To this very day I still cannot believe the Washington Redskins were a – 3 point favorite over the undefeated 1972 Dolphins.) ?  Oops, can’t help but reminisce.

 

Anyway….Joe Montana, Steve Young, Fran Tarkenton, John Elway, and a couple others were elusive but couldn’t run like this kid. Last week GBs defensive back Woodson said. Man “he is fast!” wasn’t expecting that kind of speed.

 

 Kaepernick has the whole package, he is over 6’ 4”, 233 lbs. runs a 4.5 in the 40 yard dash, and such an accurate passer. He was a 3 sport star in high school and throws a baseball over 92 mph. He can throw like Dan Marino and run like Michael Vick. In fact he broke Vick’s post season rushing record.

 

The kid is unselfish too, and very smart, also knows when to slide. He carried a 3.9 GPA in high school, (that is remarkable for a 3-sport student,) and had a 4.0 GPA in college.  Yes, he’s young, inexperienced, but he has the hot hand too.

 

More importantly, just look at the experience around him.  The 49ers are absolutely loaded with nine 9 pro bowlers. And that doesn’t even include Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, TE Vernon Davis! (wow)

 

 Running back Frank Gore is arguably the best back catching the ball in the league.  In reality, that’s 4 great receivers to cover, including Frank Gore, and a quarterback who can take it the distance on any given play......con't

 

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don juan
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#2
Posted: 1/31/2013 7:34:28 PM

The 49er defense is slightly better than the Ravens. As evidenced by the points allowed during the regular season.  This is one reason the Kid has overcome his few turnovers.

 

 Baltimore would be foolish to get into a shoot-out with them. Green Bay tried it with Rodgers, didn’t work. Atlanta tried it with a better TE and set of receivers than the Ravens, that didn’t work, even in their own house after leading 17-0, in a Championship game!  I’m still trying to remember if I’ve seen that happen before.

 

They must try to slow it down, pound the ball with Ray Rice and hope for turnovers. It may work for awhile but I think the 49ers will pull away in the second half. The speed of Kaepernick will wear down the aging Baltimore defense.

 

You must admit the Ravens were so lucky when the Broncos let Flacco complete a 70 yard bomb over their head in the final seconds. Again in the championship game they were fortunate when the Patriots lost a couple of key players during that game.

 

Fellas, I am not underestimating Baltimore, they are good. In fact I picked them minus -3 in Jan 2001 when Ray Lewis and company killed the Giants and was MVP. (Incidentally, I didn’t include that in my superbowl record because I couldn’t document it.) But, they are playing one heck of a team, 13 years later.

 

Only 5 times out the last 46 superbowls has the margin of victory been less than 3.5 whether favored of underdog. In other words the final score is usually 4 points or more, one way or the other.

 

So for the record this year, my pick is …San Francisco – 3.5

 

Good luck and I’ll see you next year, God willing.

 

Don Juan

 

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#3
Posted: 1/31/2013 7:40:21 PM
Don Juan, good luck and thanks for the sharing, as always!  
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#4
Posted: 1/31/2013 7:43:44 PM
Wow, great write up, I was confused who to take because both are a great football team.  Now I'm rolling with the 49ers!!!!!!!


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#5
Posted: 1/31/2013 7:51:11 PM

finally someone who has an educated approach to this game, not just talking about the kicker.  Anyway I posted about taking the other side, and I'm still not convinced the Ravens lose, but if Kap plays like he can then 49ers may, like you said, wear down the Ravens in the 2nd half no problem.  However, this season Kap has shown he is human and can make mistakes.  I truly do believe this game will come down to eliminating mistakes and preventing turnovers (duh).  Niners lose if they drop a punt just like they did against Giants last year...because Niners were probably the team to win last year if that event does not happen.

I also agree the winner will probably win by at least 4, not matter what side you take.

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#6
Posted: 1/31/2013 7:56:57 PM
I've been waiting for your analysis and pick ever since I saw you resurface last week or so Don.  I'm so vested in the Ravens mentally, but reading your write up does give me pause.

Your record is obviously stellar.......so glad you came back, and continued success in your annual pick.
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#7
Posted: 1/31/2013 8:03:40 PM
about to be 11-2
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#8
Posted: 1/31/2013 8:05:46 PM
Hi don juan, thanks for the write up and great info.
I wanted to know yir thoughts on the total?
Thank you!
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#9
Posted: 1/31/2013 8:06:06 PM
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don juan
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#10
Posted: 1/31/2013 8:29:23 PM

Thank you all for the kind words..sincerely.

Scarpotch..Well the over is 9-1 with Kappy at QB but two good defenses. Maybe it will hover around the total. The total opened at 52.5 now down to 47.5. I think it depends on the turnovers. I can't put my finger on that, I just feel better giving the odds because I think the Kid Kappy has something special this year.

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#11
Posted: 1/31/2013 8:51:16 PM

"Only 5 times out the last 46 superbowls has the margin of victory been less than 3.5 whether favored of underdog. In other words the final score is usually 4 points or more, one way or the other."


....Thanks for that infor!!....HERE YOU GO ---My 49ers teasing to Plus 4.5 points!!!

 
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#12
Posted: 1/31/2013 8:55:15 PM

Great witeup..The only way Ravens can win is for them to devise  clever schemes to get to Kaepernick, hit him hard, and often.

Still, at the end it most likely will come down to who has the ball last.

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#13
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:00:05 PM

I also agree with your selection ..and a very good write-up.

Good Luck Don !   

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#14
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:04:24 PM
Great insight sir, btw Which SB did u lose?
Posted using a mobile device.
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#15
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:19:58 PM
WOW the Kapernick Love is at a feverish pitch


yet I saw College teams contain this guy?


I saw Rams Shut down Kap?


I saw Seahawks shut down Kap?

But why is he Superman?     GB Defense sucked in the playoff game.


SUGGS, LEWIS, REED, NATA,   gonna have a lot to say about what you think of Kap 



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#16
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:22:53 PM
And yet another person looking into reg, season to say SF is better on Defense.    


Look into the playoffs Don Juan you are seriously flawed in this respect 

Reg. season was training camp for the playoffs 

in the playoffs who has a better Defense?    =   RAVENS

in the playoffs Offense has been EQUAL

take the Gift +4 points go with the DOGGIE 
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#17
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:23:20 PM
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#18
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:27:37 PM
Ansd I remember your write- up about Pittsburg beating Green-Bay a couple yr ago....


I thought your were 11-1 then too 

but yet you are 11-1 and I remember your big long write up about BIG BEN ROTHLISBERGER 

he was your superman then Don Juan 


Getting a little slippery in the old age Don Juan 


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#19
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:28:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gavinnick:

And yet another person looking into reg, season to say SF is better on Defense.    


Look into the playoffs Don Juan you are seriously flawed in this respect 

Reg. season was training camp for the playoffs 

in the playoffs who has a better Defense?    =   RAVENS

in the playoffs Offense has been EQUAL

take the Gift +4 points go with the DOGGIE 
STFU KID!
u literally just posted about the rams and seahawks shutting down kaep and u comeback wit this?
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#20
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:30:47 PM
Good Stuff Don



Always good to see different perspective.. especially from someone who has been studying the games for a while. Wish u were on the Ravens, tho.

few points:

- There has been 6 games out of the last 11 Super Bowls played where the final score difference was 4 pts or less.. I can name them but u can also prob just look it up easily to confirm.


-
I do respect CK's fast legs, strong arm, and his intelligence. A solid player all around. Definitely a wild card in this biggest football stage.

But has he really been tested against a solid defense ? Out of nine games he started, only two games were against a 'good' defense.. the Rams and the Seahawks. (yes, i said Rams have a good defense ) And the Niners lost both games. I am not trying to take away anything from him.. just pointing out the games where Niners struggled and did not look so invincible.

still.. the kid is impressive.


- i would argue that Ray Rice is the best back catching the ball in the league.


-
i don't think the regular season stats clearly shows which defense is better now.  As we all know, sometimes it just comes down to when the team is gelling.

Also, neither team has an advantage on Defense.
IMO, the D-line seems equal.. the Niners have LB advantage.. but the Ravens have an advantage in the secondary.


-
I don't think Balt will shoot it out with the Niners. They will run to establish the PA pass.. just like they always have done. But Jim Caldwell has opened it up for Flacco.. and I think Baltimore will stretch the field with Smith and attack the middle successfully with Boldin and Pitta.

- I am not sure what 2001 Ravens team has anything to do with this current line-up... Perhaps u were just stating u r not biased against the Ravens ?

- Just curious.. which SB did u lose ATS for that one loss (12-1) ?

Thanks and best of luck !!
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don juan
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#21
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:45:17 PM

Gavinnick, you sound so young but I honestly respect your opinion. But on the one hand you say you saw the Rams and Seattle shut down Kap, but on the other you say it was training camp. 

Secondly, The 49ers didn't much care about the second game at Seattle, it was a chance to rest their player, they had already beaten Seattle once even without the Kid. All teams rest players at the end of a grueling season. Just ask Baltimore, they are famous for that.

As for the Rams game two, (He came in and tied the first) He was coming off a huge win at N.O and  on the road again in his first start in a division game.

 

I won't debate this anymore with you, but I do wish you the best. 

 

 

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don juan
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#22
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:51:23 PM

CC12, I didn't say 4 point or less, I said 3.5 or less, and 4 points or more. I count 5, I'll check it for sure.

I'd rather not dwell on my one loss, just on my 11 wins . I am truthful about it.

 

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#23
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:04:34 PM
^^^ DOn Juan Underdogs 

12-4 

in last 16 superbowls

should just stick with the doggies 
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#24
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:06:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by don juan:

The 49er defense is slightly better than the Ravens. As evidenced by the points allowed during the regular season.  This is one reason the Kid has overcome his few turnovers.

 

 Baltimore would be foolish to get into a shoot-out with them. Green Bay tried it with Rodgers, didn’t work. Atlanta tried it with a better TE and set of receivers than the Ravens, that didn’t work, even in their own house after leading 17-0, in a Championship game!  I’m still trying to remember if I’ve seen that happen before.

 

They must try to slow it down, pound the ball with Ray Rice and hope for turnovers. It may work for awhile but I think the 49ers will pull away in the second half. The speed of Kaepernick will wear down the aging Baltimore defense.

 

You must admit the Ravens were so lucky when the Broncos let Flacco complete a 70 yard bomb over their head in the final seconds. Again in the championship game they were fortunate when the Patriots lost a couple of key players during that game.

 

Fellas, I am not underestimating Baltimore, they are good. In fact I picked them minus -3 in Jan 2001 when Ray Lewis and company killed the Giants and was MVP. (Incidentally, I didn’t include that in my superbowl record because I couldn’t document it.) But, they are playing one heck of a team, 13 years later.

 

Only 5 times out the last 46 superbowls has the margin of victory been less than 3.5 whether favored of underdog. In other words the final score is usually 4 points or more, one way or the other.

 

So for the record this year, my pick is …San Francisco – 3.5

 

Good luck and I’ll see you next year, God willing.

 

Don Juan

 

Hey Don Juan im with you every year thanks for the pick

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#25
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:12:09 PM
Indeed, most of my picks where uinderdogs.
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