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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL NFC AFC Championships
Kazual12
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Kazual12
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#1
Posted: 1/17/2013 1:22:01 AM
8-8 in the playoffs 

First play Niners Falcons under 49

Not happy with last week as I am now am at a negative due to juice.  Hopefully this week and the Superbowl game will change things for the positive. As the total continues to rise in the Atlanta and San Fran game I am making a play on the under.  I expect maybe to line might climb higher as the game gets closer.  Not certain so I will hit it now.  I suspect people will pound the over due to Kaepernick's big performance last week and the Falcons outstanding passing attack.  If the line continues to climb i might make alternative bets on even higher numbers.  This is the NFC championship game and I expect both defenses to bring it.  San Fran will look to run the ball and keep possession.  The Falcons will try to establish a running game (which has been fairly weak this year 29th regular season) and look to take their shots down field.  It is definitely a contrarian play based off of the nature of how unpredictable the NFL is and the line inflating.  I liked the under at 47.5 and it is now up 1.5 pts.  The Falcons pass defense is better than Green Bay and they will look to limit (although they won't shut down) the Niners bigger runs.  I see that as a move that favors the under.  The Niners defense is solid and Matt Ryan will feel the jitters in his first stout NFC championship opponent San Fran.  Lean towards Atlanta ATS due to the value, Kaps inexperience, Atlanta's outstanding home record etc.  
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Kazual12
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#2
Posted: 1/17/2013 1:37:29 PM
i take one this back Atlanta's pass defense isn't better than Green Bay.  After looking closer it is relatively close.  I don't won't to do much comparing but the regular season data and stats don't lie.  Green Bay got torched last weekend and I want to stay objective and avoid picking a team ATS when my research is wrong.  Atlanta had more picks but gave up more passing yardage.  Green Bay had more sack but gave up a little more points per game.  Anyway, it really boils down to situation and match up elements in this game. 
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Kazual12
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#3
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:06:11 PM
Second Play Ravens +10

Double digit playoff dog! BetLegends has the Ravens at +10.  Locking it in now.  Well, I see the line anywhere between +8 and +10.  I don't know how I can convince myself not to make a play on the Ravens here.  The Patriots are always capable of burning a team especially at Foxboro but Baltimore just seems up for the task.  There performance against Denver was impressive (and Denver obviously didn't help their own cause).  Torrey Smith is ridiculous in terms of speed and pass catching ability.  Boldin is a warrior (although I wish he wouldn't speak his mind aloud).  Flacco has stepped up big and was in this spot last year.  Ray Rice, Bernard Pearce, and Leach are a potent group of RB's.  Don't forget Pitta as well on the offensive side of the ball.  Before the Denver game I was hating on the Ravens.  They proved me wrong.  The defense isn't what it used to be but they will be playing on an emotional high.  Tucker has proven to be a very effective kicker as well (no Cundiff this year).  The Ravens won't back down.  I can say a lot of things about the Patriots but don't want to tell you things you probably have heard before.  Ravens coaching staff is getting it done so far as well.  Got to do it and hope I don't regret it. 
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Kazual12
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#4
Posted: 1/18/2013 11:06:41 AM
Third play Niner -3.5.  I guess I am buying the hype and fading a very good Falcon team.  I say this but I just don't like how they match up against the Niners.  I look for Atlanta to slow down the pistol offense but next up you will get a dose of Frank Gore right in your face.  Kap will still run for some first downs and continue to throw darts to Crabtree who has been playing really well.  vernon davis should have an impact as the Falcons struggle against opposing TE's.  I would by no means consider this a lock.  I know that Atlanta has a very high powered offense and they are at home.  I just don't like their run game and they are 0-5 ats in their last five playoffs games.
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Kazual12
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#5
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:11:36 PM
Final Play Patriots and Ravens under 51.5.  The line finally moved up a half point been waiting for that all week.

Quotes from Tom Brady's press conference on Wednesday before they practiced.  "They have a lot of playmakers at each level of the defense."  It's not like you beat this team 50-0.  It's always a tight game.  There's tight coverage.  There's tight throws, tough reads because schematically they do quite a few things.  So it's never easy."

Brady is 5-2 against the Ravens but struggles against them.  His stats against them are the poorest he has faced against any team in the league in his 13 years.  58.6 completion rate and 74.1 passing percentage.  Interestingly, Brady has thrown 8 interceptions versus seven touchdowns against the Ravens.  He has been sacked 16 times in these meetings. 

I know the Ravens defense might not be all they used to be but remember they beat the Pats already this year.  And it was close  31-30.  The only difference I see this time around is the Pats win a close one in a lower scoring affair. 
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Kazual12
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#6
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:42:33 AM
Pats Ravens total moving up to 52 in some books and at BetLegends.  this means to me sharp bettors are finally hitting the over on game day (which is a bad thing) or a more public perception is driving up the total (which is a good thing) in my case as I am playing the under.  Weather in foxboro is slated as mid thirties, partly cloud, but with about 15 mile to 20 mile per hour winds coming from the west.  I live in New England not to far from Foxboro.  It is beautiful playoff football weather.  The wind factor may play a roll in the passing game.  I look for these teams to run the ball a lot in this game.
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Kazual12
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Kazual12
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#7
Posted: 1/20/2013 2:44:20 PM
Adding Two Team Teaser 7 points Atlanta San Fran under 56 and Pats Balt over 42.5

Player Prop Gore over 80.5 yards -120
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Kazual12
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Kazual12
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#8
Posted: 1/21/2013 3:11:20 PM
3 and 1.  i will take it.  Good luck on your bowl picks guys!
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